Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bear Creek, FL

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Broad upper level ridging centered in the central Gulf ridges northeastward across northern Florida and along the eastern seaboard. On the surface, high pressure located southeast of Bermuda ridges westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This pattern remains relatively unchanged until Sunday morning, when upper troughing digs south through the Mississippi River Valley and a weak frontal boundary pushes through the southeast U.S. This will nudge the upper ridging and surface high to the south and east on Sunday and Monday. The weather through Sunday will be remain hot and rain-free each day. Daytime highs will reach the low 90s for today and Sunday, with some high temperatures approaching record levels in some areas today. Overnight lows will be mild dipping into the 50s and 60s each night. The next chance of any rain will be on Monday afternoon as the weak front moves through the area, but will remain on the low side at only 10-30 percent over the interior and southwest Florida. High pressure settles in over the southeast U.S.
by Tuesday with rain-free conditions expected for most of next week.
Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average is also expected through most of next week.

MARINE
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

High pressure southeast of Bermuda ridges westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less over the region through the weekend.
Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the weekend. A cold front moves through the region on Monday, but rainfall will be limited with mostly rain-free conditions continuing. Winds and seas will increase in the wake of this front as strong high pressure builds in from the north producing a tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed starting early Monday morning and continuing through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the weekend. Some critical RH values around 35 percent expected today, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. The next chance of any rainfall comes on Monday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through the area. Rainfall will be limited to the interior and southwest Florida. Dry air with some critical RH values expected Monday afternoon, combined with breezy northeast winds, producing some hazardous fire conditions, primarily along the Nature Coast.
Conditions will be closely monitored for possible Red Flag Warning conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 90 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 69 90 67 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 87 69 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 89 73 86 71 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.