Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bear Creek, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1247 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Scattered showers early this morning along with an isolated rumble of thunder or two. This activity is developing ahead of an approaching cold front. This welcome rain has brought as much as 1.5 inches in a few locations based on observations and radar estimates, while others locations have seen little to no rainfall. So far, most of southwest Florida has seen little to no rainfall but there is an area of rainfall currently on radar moving onshore. Overall, intensity and coverage of rainfall is forecast to diminish throughout the mornings hours. There is also a high chance of fog development this morning with increase low-level moisture along the surface front.

The upper level pattern features an upper level trough that is currently located across the northeastern Gulf. At the surface, a cold front is drifting southward and has moved into the Florida Penesula. Moisture remains elevated along and to the south of the frontal boundary with PW values near the 95th-99th percentile of climatology for late February. Due to this, continued with higher PoPs early this morning but expect rain chances will diminish through the early morning hours.

A really challenging forecast for what PoPs look like this afternoon and evening. The latest CAMs have mostly come in with isolated coverage of showers and storms at best. It appears drier air from the front is moving into the region quicker than anticipated. For the forecast, lowered PoPs overall but didn't go as low as the CAMs show. PoPs this afternoon are still in the 20-50% range with best chances for showers/storms across southeastern portions of the forecast area. With the drier air aloft, models soundings are indicating better instability. Due to this, any storms that do form have a low chance of becoming strong to severe. The SPC has outlined southeastern portions of the area in a marginal risk. The main threat would be an isolated severe wind gust and marginally severe sized hail.

Drier air moves into the area from northwest to southeast later this afternoon and evening. Chances for showers/storms should eventually come to an end tonight. The cold air advection behind the departing front is non-existant and highs on Sunday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. The warming trend will continue into next week with highs across interior portions of the area approaching 90 by mid week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A challenging aviation forecast. All of the TAF sites are currently VFR except for PGD where conditions are IFR. Current radar imagery indicates a cluster of showers and storms that should move onshore that will impact KSRQ and KPGD over the next hour or so. Tried to time this as best as possible in the TAFs.
With the widespread ample low level moisture, expect IFR conditions will return later this morning around 09z or so for most locations. Most of the latest models keep most of the redevelopment of showers/storms this afternoon inland and do not have precipitation mentioned in the TAFs outside of the ongoing activity. Fog and ceilings should lift by 15z or so at most terminals giving way to VFR conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 1247 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Ongoing showers and storms this morning across the coastal waters as a cold front moves into the region. A few of these storms could produce gusty winds up to 30 kts this morning. We also have a moderate chance for fog development this morning. Drier conditions will start to move in later today as the front passes. Winds will shift to the north later today but will remain around 10 kts or so.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1247 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Scattered to numerous showers are currently ongoing across the forecast area this morning with a few rumbles of thunder being reported. Scattered showers and storms are forecast today with best chances across the interior portions of the state. Humidity values remain elevated over the weekend and into next week and no fire weather concerns are forecast at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 60 80 59 / 50 10 10 0 FMY 82 63 82 61 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 79 59 79 57 / 60 20 10 0 SRQ 77 60 79 59 / 60 10 10 0 BKV 78 50 81 50 / 40 10 10 0 SPG 77 62 79 62 / 50 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.