Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bear Creek, FL

FXUS62 KTBW 221955 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 255 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

A broad longwave trough is the dominant upper-level weather feature across much of the CONUS. Closer to the surface, a frontal boundary remains to the south over the Florida Straights as a large area of surface ridging settles over the E CONUS. Satellite imagery is quite impressive, particularly along the Northern Gulf Coast where clear skies continue to reveal the snow cover on the ground. An impressive, and rare, sight to see.

Closer to us, though, considerable cloudiness continues. While a northerly flow is in place, advecting cooler air into the region, the airmass is maritime polar, rather than continental polar. Thus, the column remains saturated and conditionally unstable. A thick blanket of clouds has remained in response, keeping temperatures cold and in the 30s and 40s outside SWFL, where temperatures have climbed to into the mid-50s. A brief midday clearing helped get temperatures up a little warmer in this area. This same cloud cover should keep temperatures moderated overnight. Only Levy County is expected to drop below freezing tonight as such.

Much like yesterday, another lifting warm front favors additional overrunning precip tomorrow, with thick cloud cover and cold temperatures remaining. As today's high temps are falling fall short of expectations (and in some spots may break daily records for the lowest high temperatures), persistence says this is likely again tomorrow. As such, keeping temps in the mid 40s to low 50s tomorrow as well. This setup suggests tomorrow will be another miserable cold, rainy day.

Late in the day and overnight, it does look like things will truly begin to dry out more, leading to a scenario where skies should begin clearing. As another front pushes through, this will favor Friday and Saturday mornings being even colder, perhaps the coldest mornings of the season in Central and SWFL. This is due in large part to more efficient radiational cooling with clear skies and lighter winds.

Beginning on Saturday afternoon, however, a gradual warming starts to place. The flow is expected to begin veering to more of an easterly direction and eventually ESE. This will allow warm air advection to take place moderating temperatures back into the 70s.
After several chilly days (and a couple more to go), there is light at the end of the tunnel.
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