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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 253 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Patchy fog late.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 253 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis.. A southerly flow continues into tomorrow with winds in the 10 to 15 knots range during the day. Overnight, these winds subside, and this may allow some land fog to drift over adjacent coastal waters, reducing visibilities. This should clear out by mid- morning, but then showers come into play as some of the breezier conditions return and the winds eventually back to a northerly direction.

FXUS62 KTBW 030008 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 708 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 708 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

The warm and humid airmass will hold across the region through Sunday with more low clouds and fog late tonight into Sunday morning. An band of showers is expected to move into the region Sunday reaching the Nature Coast during the morning, the Tampa Bay area early afternoon, and then Southwest Florida and the interior late in the afternoon and evening. However, this convection will be weakening and thinning out as it moves southeastward so southern areas may not see much. Overall the current forecast looks good with no changes planned.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities is expected later tonight into Sunday morning between about 04Z and 15Z, with worst conditions between 10Z and 13Z. Conditions will gradually improve during the mid to late morning on Sunday with mainly VFR conditions expected during the afternoon. However, scattered showers are forecast to move into the Tampa Bay area after 18Z which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Clouds continue to stream across the FL peninsula as a trough axis propagates through West Texas. A surface boundary is stationary across N FL, with storms ongoing in the Panhandle. Across the central and southern FL peninsula, a southerly to slightly SSW flow has become established, advecting warm and humid air back in across the region. This will continue through the remainder of day and evening, keeping conditions close to record high minimum temperatures.

This setup is highly favorable for fog overnight, but the key is how light do winds become. If the winds stay even up around 5kts or so, we are probably more likely to see low clouds rather than fog. It's tricky to get down to that level of detail accurately. Persistence says it is favored, though, so am forecasting patchy to areas of fog across most of the region.

As this trough continues to amplify the upper-level pattern over the SE CONUS, eventually an attendant cold front will push southwards into our area. With continued southerly low-level flow to advect additional moisture in, there should be scattered showers by tomorrow afternoon across the area. Storms should spread farther south through the day before waning some after dark. The surface front itself doesn't look to make it through until Monday, so clouds and light rain could linger into Monday, before cooler and drier air filters in.

A much nicer and more mild airmass then settles in by Tuesday and sticks around through the remainder of the week. Daytime highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. The coldest morning currently looks to be Thursday morning, with some upper 30s forecast. There is about a 15% chance of freezing temperatures across the Northern Nature Coast on Wednesday morning.

By the end of the work week, the flow starts to veer more easterly.
In response, conditions start to moderate. It should be a really nice weekend as this happens. So the next few days look to be quite a roller coaster in terms of weather.

MARINE
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A southerly flow continues into tomorrow with winds in the 10 to 15 knots range during the day. Overnight, these winds subside, and this may allow some land fog to drift over adjacent coastal waters, reducing visibilities. This should clear out by mid-morning, but then showers come into play as some of the breezier conditions return and the winds eventually back to a northerly direction.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

No concerns for the next couple days as warm, humid conditions persist. Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 80 70 77 / 0 40 20 20 FMY 71 83 71 81 / 0 20 0 10 GIF 69 83 68 80 / 10 30 20 20 SRQ 70 81 68 79 / 0 30 10 20 BKV 68 81 65 77 / 10 40 20 10 SPG 71 77 70 75 / 0 40 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Johns Pass
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Sat -- 01:07 AM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:31 PM EST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Johns Pass, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:03 AM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EST     0.10 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 10:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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