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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 253 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Patchy fog late.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 253 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis.. A southerly flow continues into tomorrow with winds in the 10 to 15 knots range during the day. Overnight, these winds subside, and this may allow some land fog to drift over adjacent coastal waters, reducing visibilities. This should clear out by mid- morning, but then showers come into play as some of the breezier conditions return and the winds eventually back to a northerly direction.

FXUS62 KTBW 021952 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 252 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Clouds continue to stream across the FL peninsula as a trough axis propagates through West Texas. A surface boundary is stationary across N FL, with storms ongoing in the Panhandle. Across the central and southern FL peninsula, a southerly to slightly SSW flow has become established, advecting warm and humid air back in across the region. This will continue through the remainder of day and evening, keeping conditions close to record high minimum temperatures.

This setup is highly favorable for fog overnight, but the key is how light do winds become. If the winds stay even up around 5kts or so, we are probably more likely to see low clouds rather than fog. It's tricky to get down to that level of detail accurately. Persistence says it is favored, though, so am forecasting patchy to areas of fog across most of the region.

As this trough continues to amplify the upper-level pattern over the SE CONUS, eventually an attendant cold front will push southwards into our area. With continued southerly low-level flow to advect additional moisture in, there should be scattered showers by tomorrow afternoon across the area. Storms should spread farther south through the day before waning some after dark. The surface front itself doesn't look to make it through until Monday, so clouds and light rain could linger into Monday, before cooler and drier air filters in.

A much nicer and more mild airmass then settles in by Tuesday and sticks around through the remainder of the week. Daytime highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. The coldest morning currently looks to be Thursday morning, with some upper 30s forecast. There is about a 15% chance of freezing temperatures across the Northern Nature Coast on Wednesday morning.

By the end of the work week, the flow starts to veer more easterly.
In response, conditions start to moderate. It should be a really nice weekend as this happens. So the next few days look to be quite a roller coaster in terms of weather.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 20

No concerns through this evening as VFR conditions prevail. However, expecting MVFR to IFR conditions overnight as a light southerly flow advects additional low-level moisture back in. There are likely to be IFR CIGs, but there could potentially be fog overnight as well.
This should clear by 14 to 15Z similar to today, but an approaching cold front make keep CIGs to MVFR (at least around Tampa Bay) and favors showers later in the day. Conditions may linger into Monday before improving into the middle of the week.



MARINE
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A southerly flow continues into tomorrow with winds in the 10 to 15 knots range during the day. Overnight, these winds subside, and this may allow some land fog to drift over adjacent coastal waters, reducing visibilities. This should clear out by mid-morning, but then showers come into play as some of the breezier conditions return and the winds eventually back to a northerly direction.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

No concerns for the next couple days as warm, humid conditions persist. Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 71 80 70 / 0 0 40 20 FMY 85 71 83 71 / 0 0 20 0 GIF 85 69 83 68 / 10 10 30 20 SRQ 83 70 81 68 / 0 0 30 10 BKV 85 68 81 65 / 0 10 40 20 SPG 79 71 77 70 / 0 0 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Johns Pass, Boca Ciega Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Sat -- 01:03 AM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EST     0.10 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 10:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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