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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Tonight..Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wednesday night..North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough.
Thursday..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday..North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday night..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 926 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
strong onshore flow over the offshore waters will spread to nearshore waters around midnight tonight and into the bays by mid-morning. A small craft advisory is in effect for the offshore waters. The small craft advisory will extend into the nearshore waters at midnight and then into the bays at 10 am. Winds could gust to gale force at times with occasional seas to 13 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstomrs are possible late tonight and Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible. Winds will weaken and shift generally north and persist through early next week. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms Friday will decrease to isolated Friday night and Saturday night.

FXUS64 KCRP 292328 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 528 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday

- Windy conditions expected both onshore and offshore Thursday

Several ingredients will come together to increase the potential for severe thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow mainly across the Victoria Crossroads where a Slight Risk for severe storms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

An upper level jet and a mid-level low across the Desert SW ejects over the Southern Plains over the short term period. A 700 mb shortwave moves across the region tonight along with a 35-40 kt LLJ, increasing moisture across South Texas and providing lift in the lower levels of the atmosphere. PWAT's are progged to peak around 1.70-1.75" according to the GEFS ensemble mean and GFS 12Z Thursday then quickly drops off to around 1.10" by 00Z. A weak warm front will provide sfc lift during the day Thursday but mostly to our northeast. With the lack of strong lifting at the surface and a limited window for a deep moisture profile, activity will also be limited but the potential is still present.

Hazards:

Severe Storms: There's a 5% probability for severe winds associated with thunderstorms, isolated tornadoes and hail. These probabilities exist across eastern portions of the region.

Windy conditions across much of the CWA and offshore will result in loose or lightweight objects getting blown around and hazardous seas.

Temperatures:

Cooler temperatures in the 60s today will give way to 70s and 80s tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Message:

- Low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Plains Friday

A weak surface boundary will meander across South Texas Friday before moving just south of the CWA Friday night. Moisture will remain near the 75th percentile (1.5") on Friday and with a surface boundary to provide lift, included a low to medium chance (20-30%)
of showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains. Drier air filters in through the rest of the weekend as a broad mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Plains and Midwest. PWAT values drop below normal Saturday night then drop even more to around 0.5" or less (25th percentile) behind a reinforcing surge of high pressure on Sunday. Therefore, mentionable low rain chances remain focused over the Coastal Waters and silent PoPs over land.

Surface high pressure shifts eastward early next week and will return onshore flow Monday into Tuesday, moisture will gradually increase but not enough to include rain chances at this time.
Another mid-level trough pushes eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest heading into the middle of next week, pushing our next cold front through South Texas just beyond the long term period.

Mostly cloudy conditions and very weak cold air advection will keep highs relatively consistent Friday through Tuesday, from around 70 over the Victoria Crossroads to the mid 70s westward. Lows in the 50s through Saturday night before drier air comes in Sunday night into early next week and drops lows into the 40s and low 50s through Tuesday night.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Generally MVFR conditions begin this TAF period with only VCT and CRP at VFR. Expect conditions to diminish through the evening and overnight, with IFR conditions expected by morning. Showers are expected to move across the area as early as 06Z through around 18Z Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible over the northeast Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Thursday morning, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Confidence in thunderstorms is low to moderate. Conditions will improve late in the afternoon with MVFR and VFR returning late.

MARINE
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Weak to moderate onshore flow will increase to strong late tonight then very strong tomorrow in response to a disturbance moving across the region. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 9 PM for the offshore waters, midnight for the nearshore waters, and mid morning for the bays. In addition to strong winds from 30-35 knots, seas will climb to around 10-12 feet. These hazardous conditions will persist through tomorrow evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters tonight and tomorrow. Winds will become weak and shift north to northeasterly by Friday night, then persist through Sunday. Winds strengthen to weak to moderate out of the north to northwest early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday will decrease to isolated Friday night through Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 64 81 65 76 / 40 30 0 30 Victoria 62 76 61 72 / 80 70 10 20 Laredo 58 78 61 73 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 61 81 61 76 / 40 10 0 20 Rockport 62 75 63 72 / 60 40 0 30 Cotulla 57 77 57 75 / 30 10 0 0 Kingsville 63 83 63 76 / 40 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 66 77 67 73 / 60 20 0 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ231- 232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275.

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Port Ingleside, Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Wed -- 01:32 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:17 AM CST     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:20 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:50 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:58 PM CST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:33 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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