Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redington Beach, FL

FXUS62 KTBW 072018 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 318 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

High pressure centered across the Southeast US will drift southeastward into the southwest Atlantic tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds setting up favorable radiational cooling conditions across the region. Winds will be lightest across the Nature Coast where best cooling conditions are expected to occur as lows are forecast to dip down into the mid/upper 30s, which could support areas of frost in northern portions of the forecast area so a Frost Advisory has been issued for inland portions of Levy County through 13Z/8AM Sunday morning. Elsewhere, lows will dip down into the 40s and 50s so still below normal for this time of the year. However, tonight will be the last chilly night until at least the middle of next week as a warming trend is expected in the coming days with southerly flow increasing across the region as high pressure shifts further out into the Atlantic. This should favor high temperatures returning to climatological normal values by tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 70s and reaching above normal into early next week. In addition, dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into the new week with Atlantic high pressure and shortwave ridging aloft in control.

By late Tuesday, a strong cold front will into the FL panhandle region and quickly shift southeastward across the Florida peninsula throughout the day on Wednesday as a deep upper trough moves across the Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and and possibly a few storms are expected to accompany the frontal passage as PWATs surge as high as 1-7-1.9 inches, though instability looks to be on the marginal side so convective activity generally looks to be limited at this time. Overall QPF amounts also are not looking to be too impressive with latest GEFS probabilities of QPF greater than 0.5 inches only showing about 10%-20% across portions of the Nature Coast with lower probabilities further southward, which appears reasonable given the progressive nature of the frontal boundary. Regardless, the rain will quickly come to an end by Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper trough shifts off to the east and surface high pressure builds across the northern Gulf Coast. This will send temperatures dropping significantly by Thursday with highs struggling to reach the 60s for northern portions of the forecast area, though it appears temperatures will moderate rather quickly late week and into next weekend as cold air advection diminishes and wind flow becomes easterly towards the end of the forecast period.
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