Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:13 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 328 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest late this morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 328 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds less than 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas persist through Saturday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the northeast gulf on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary lifts over the area. Winds become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the next cold front moving through during the day on Sunday bringing increasing rain and storm chances to the eastern gulf waters. Lingering rain chances will stick around through Tuesday primarily over the southeastern gulf waters. Winds and seas remain below headline criteria through the period.

FXUS62 KTBW 170722 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 322 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A closed upper low and surface low spins north of Bermuda with a cold front extending southward through the western Atlantic, then turning westward over Florida and extending further westward along the northern gulf coast to Louisiana. A MCS on the western periphery of this front is producing some severe weather from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. This system will traverse eastward over the next 12-24 hours, slightly weakening as it moves near northern Florida on Friday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the Nature Coast through the afternoon hours as this system moves over northern Florida and the frontal boundary lifts northward.
There's a Marginal Risk for severe storms over parts of the Nature Coast for today. Some seabreeze showers and storms will also be possible over the interior and east coast.

On Saturday, the front lifts farther northward over the southeast U.S. Abundant moisture on the south side of this front will lead to scattered showers and storms on Saturday with the highest chances over the Nature Coast. By Sunday morning, a weak low develops near the Carolinas with a cold front extending southwestward across Florida. This will bring another round of showers and storms during the day on Sunday. The front will linger across southern Florida through Tuesday with daily showers and storms possible over the southern counties and interior. High pressure builds into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday with drier air and lower rain chances by mid week and continuing through the end of next week. Near average to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the period. Heat indices will reach 100-104 degrees over the next couple of days.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected early this morning, then increasing SW around 8-12 knots by mid morning and continuing through the afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all terminals at this time as it appears most rain chances will remain well to the north over the Nature Coast and interior.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Southerly winds less than 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas persist through Saturday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the northeast gulf on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary lifts over the area. Winds become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the next cold front moving through during the day on Sunday bringing increasing rain and storm chances to the eastern gulf waters. Lingering rain chances will stick around through Tuesday primarily over the southeastern gulf waters. Winds and seas remain below headline criteria through the period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

No fire weather concerns expected as abundant moisture remains over the area with daily showers and storms possible over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 79 91 78 / 10 0 30 50 FMY 92 78 95 78 / 10 0 10 30 GIF 94 73 97 74 / 20 10 40 40 SRQ 91 78 93 77 / 10 0 20 40 BKV 92 72 93 72 / 20 0 40 50 SPG 89 81 90 80 / 10 0 30 50

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Madeira Beach Causeway, Boca Ciega Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Fri -- 01:58 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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