LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Overall, not much change with this long term forecast update. Upper level ridging will remain in place as we head into the weekend.
Sufficient low level moisture will allow for low chances of showers and thunderstorms daily (15-20%), generally along the sea breeze. As we head through the weekend, a stout upper level low will dive south towards the Desert Southwest and eject across the Plains Sunday into Monday. This upper low will kick a cold front south across the state. Unfortunately, it looks to remain well north of the region.

We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal flooding over the weekend. Gerling-Hanson plots reveal a secondary and tertiary wave system with 9-10s periods. PETSS guidance hints at tides nearing 2ft MSL during high tide this weekend. Confidence is not too high at this time but it is worth monitoring.

High temps through the long term look to top out in the 90s with lows dipping into the 70s. Heat indices on Friday look to settle into the 105-109 range, promoting a moderate to major heat risk.
Over the weekend and into next week, our max heat indices drop to around 100-105, providing a minor to moderate heat risk.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A mixture of IFR to LIFR conditions will continue at ALI/VCT terminals this morning owing mainly to patchy fog formation.
Across the western sites, TEMPO MVFR conditions are expected through 15Z for ceilings. All sites are forecast to return to VFR levels by late morning, with another round of MVFR to IFR conditions expected early Thursday due to fog. Winds will generally be light and variable this morning, before increasing to around 10-12 knots in the afternoon. Light winds will return overnight. A few showers may near CRP/ALI/VCT sites today, but confidence in occurrence is low.

MARINE
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early next week. There is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. An approaching upper level disturbance will lead to a low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 93 78 93 77 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 96 78 97 77 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 95 76 95 75 / 20 0 10 0 Rockport 92 79 92 79 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 98 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 94 77 95 76 / 20 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 89 80 / 10 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.