Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gibsonton, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 12:24 PM EDT (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 2:09PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 944 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
This afternoon..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 944 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Synopsis..Westerly winds will continue through mid week with possible showers during the early morning hours. Weak winds return Wednesday with onshore sea breeze in the afternoon. Some showers and Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night through much of Thursday. Otherwise, east to southeast winds will favor showers and storms over the waters by late evening through the overnight hours. No headlines are anticipated through the period. The main threat will be associated with showers and Thunderstorms that will be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds, and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gibsonton, FL
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location: 27.83, -82.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 141305 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 905 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

UPDATE. Westerly flow remains in place over the region north of surface high pressure ridging extending west/southwest across the Florida Straits from the western Atlantic. Showers with a few thunderstorms this morning have mainly been concentrated across coastal locations east to around I-75 although a few have penetrated further inland, mostly across interior Hillsborough and Manatee counties into far western Polk County. Shower/storm coverage is expected to gradually shift inland into the afternoon hours while temps warm into the low 90s for most of the area with a continued westerly breeze. Existing forecast package remains on track with no changes planned for the morning update.

Prev Discussion. /issued 750 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020/

AVIATION . Mainly VFR through period with brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys with passing SHRA/TSRA at TPA/PIE after 12Z, spreading to remaining terminals after 15Z, before diminishing after 20Z for northern coastal terminals and after 01Z elsewhere. West winds through period generally below 10 knots, decreasing to light/variable for most terminals overnight.

Prev Discussion . /issued 254 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020/

SYNOPSIS . At the start of the period: Aloft, an upper level trough is centered over Vermont, with broad cyclonic flow extending down to the Bahamas. Meanwhile, upper level ridging resides over the Southern Plains into the Southwest US, maintaining the dangerous heat they have been experiencing recently. Closer to the surface, the subtropical ridge remains in a similar place compared to yesterday, with its center just east of Bermuda its axis extending west-southwest through the Florida Straits.

DISCUSSION . With the current position of the subtropical ridge (see above Synopsis), mean flow in the 1000mb-700mb layer will be approx 6-10 knots out of the west. From a climatological perspective, this will produce some spotty showers (and perhaps a thunderstorm) between 8am-2pm across the waters and then coastal counties. Coverage will then transition to the interior counties through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening with the greatest focus west and north of Lake Okeechobee. With no limiting factor from PWAT (generally above 1.75 inches) and any potential influence from a weak shortwave still too far northwest of us, rain coverage should align with this particular flow pattern. Rain should quickly die off after the loss of daytime heating. Meanwhile, nothing surprising with regards to high temperatures as it should remain very similar to yesterday with low/mid 90s and heat index values in the low triple digits.

Our pattern finally starts to shift by Wednesday as broad surface ridging sprawls across the southeast, weakening the flow over our area. This will either lead to light/variable or weak southwest flow in the low-levels. Either scenario means slower cell movement, driven by sea breeze progression or storm outflow boundaries . Convection should be limited over the coastal waters as lower moisture will reside just off the coast, perhaps even intruding into our coastal counties. Regardless, inland counties should see decent storm coverage during the afternoon with high temps a degree or so above average.

An interesting and tricky forecast scenario takes place starting Wednesday night. Aloft, a relatively weak but sharp upper level trough (identified via 300mb winds and potential vorticity map) will start to sag south into north Florida. This will advect an area of stronger mid-level theta-e lapse rates, and therefore more static instability. As a result, it's not out of the question we could see reinvigorated shower/thunderstorm activity as we head into the overnight/morning hours of Thursday - especially near the coast and out over the waters. Behind this trough, some drier air will move in from the northeast during the afternoon hours, potentially impacting how much thunderstorm coverage we receive during the day/evening. Have opted to temper down PoPs in the afternoon as the go-to blend seems to smooth out the influence of the dry air and other unfavorable factors. Otherwise, no change in temperatures from the previous day.

Moving into Friday, low-level flow will transition to strong easterly flow. Meanwhile, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (aka TUTT cell) will move move westward over the southern or central part of the FL Peninsula. While not a very significant TUTT, it looks to be strong enough to provide additional lift and much cooler temperatures (Friday afternoon 500mb temps over our area as low as -9.6C according to the 00Z GFS) aloft to provide some more robust updrafts and widespread convection. Traditionally, TUTTs have a history of providing marginally severe pulse storms (mostly in the way of hail), so we'll have to watch for that in the coming days. Nevertheless, it should be a wet day for most of us .

Otherwise, under the strong east to southeast regime which will be in place through the remainder of the period, and the Tampa Bay area along with all of our coastal communities can expect late afternoon/evening storms - with outflow boundaries moving out over the waters around sunset. Overnight and early morning showers and storms will be possible over the waters while we are in this easterly flow . No change in the temperature story, with highs in the low-mid 90s, and lows in the 70s through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION . (06Z TAF Cycle) Prevailing VFR with westerly winds dominating through the TAF period. Showers will move in off the Gulf with VCSH beginning 10Z-12Z for northern TAF sites, and 15Z across southern terminals. This will transition to VCTS by late morning and early afternoon. Clearing should occur beginning with coastal terminals as convection transitions inland. Light west winds return around sunset.

MARINE . Westerly winds will continue through mid week with possible showers during the early morning hours. Weak winds return Wednesday with onshore sea breeze in the afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night through much of Thursday. Otherwise, east to southeast winds will favor showers and storms over the waters by late evening through the overnight hours. No headlines are anticipated through the period. The main threat will be associated with showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds, and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER . Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds from outflow boundaries. Otherwise, besides low overnight dispersions inland, ample low- level moisture will preclude any major fire weather concerns through the period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 92 79 92 79 / 40 0 30 30 FMY 92 78 93 77 / 30 20 40 20 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 50 20 60 20 SRQ 91 79 91 78 / 40 10 20 30 BKV 91 75 92 75 / 40 0 40 30 SPG 91 80 92 79 / 40 10 20 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

UPDATE . Hurt UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT . McMichael


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 4 mi54 min 89°F
EBEF1 7 mi66 min 88°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 9 mi54 min 88°F
CLBF1 12 mi90 min Calm G 2.9 86°F 1017 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi54 min 89°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 28 mi90 min N 1.9 G 4.1 85°F 1018.3 hPa
42098 29 mi58 min 88°F2 ft

Wind History for Old Port Tampa, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL3 mi28 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F74°F64%1018.2 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL6 mi29 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F80°F75%1018.3 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL8 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1017.4 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL10 mi31 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F63%1018 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL12 mi31 minNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F78°F70%1017.8 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL14 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1018.3 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL21 mi49 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F78°F89%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCF

Wind History from MCF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW16W9
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2 days agoNW6NW7NW6NW4NW7NW6NW3W3W5W6SW6SW7W6W6W4NW5W3W4W5W5W4W3SW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Ballast Point, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:40 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.50.70.70.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.50.60.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.