Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Feather Sound, FL

FXUS62 KTBW 140757 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak ridge of high pressure remains located over the Gulf and is situated over the state, while a trough of low pressure is sitting just off the coast of the Southeastern US at the moment. Showers and thunderstorms have been active over the past few hours in our northern counties, but they appear to be weakening with convection falling apart as they move to the south towards the bay area. How far this band of storms travels south may be an indicator as to which area sees the most early activity this morning between the Tampa Bay area or our southern counties, given interactions with the outflow boundary of these storms post-collapse can spark further local activity.

The aforementioned low pressure system should begin tracking west across Florida later today before emerging into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. The system is expected to bring about very high chances for precipitation, with area wide probabilities exceeding 75%, as well as a forecast 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall over the next 2 days with higher localized values possible. Climatologically high PW values should be present in the atmosphere. The Weather Prediction Center has tagged our region with a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall stemming from this trough, and so there exists the potential for associated local flash flooding.

Southeast flow is expected to take over later in the week into the weekend with a ridge axis developing over North Central Florida, leading to a more classic summertime pattern of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon.

Once again, due to increased amounts of precipitation forecast early in the week, high temperatures should be subdued with values in the high 80s to low 90s, before rising to the low to mid 90s by the end of the week. Lows are forecast to remain consistent in the mid 70s throughout the week.
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