Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:12 AM   Moonset 5:49 PM

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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 1033 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Saturday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming around 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 1033 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
the weak to moderate onshore flow tonight will become south overnight, and then become onshore by Wednesday afternoon. No showers are expected. Saharan dust may linger over the waters reducing visibility down to around 5 to 6 nautical miles at times. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to develop Thursday and continue through the end of the work week. Dry conditions are expected through much of the week, however, there is plenty of uncertainty towards the latter half of the week depending on the track and potential impacts from hurricane beryl. As beryl enters the bay of campeche, you can expect rain chances to increase as well as wave heights, especially across the offshore waters.

FXUS64 KCRP 022343 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

-Minor to Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday.

Synopsis: Little to no change is expected in the short-term forecast as a mid-level high centered over the southeastern Gulf states continues to influence the region. This high maintains a ridge extending over Texas and into New Mexico, which is expected to remain largely unchanged over the next day or so. Subsidence under this high pressure system will be the primary driver of the current weather pattern, resulting in settled and warm conditions across South Texas.

Precipitable Water Analysis: The GEF's plume ensemble mean shows PWAT values between 1.75 and 2.10 inches, slightly above the normal values for this time of year, which typically sit around 1.70 inches. Despite the higher PWAT values, the overall dry air mass will limit convective activity, keeping the region dry.

Heat Concerns:

The primary hazard over the next couple of days will be the heat.
Heat indices are expected to approach advisory criteria, with values around 110 degrees today and tomorrow. While these heat indices are concerning, they currently do not warrant a Heat Advisory. However, conditions will be closely monitored, and the forecast will be adjusted as necessary should the situation change.

Tropical Outlook: Hurricane Beryl is currently active in the Caribbean and is heading towards Jamaica. As it is still several days away from reaching the Yucatan and the Gulf, this discussion is included in the long term section below.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week

- High uncertainty late this week into this weekend depending on the track and impacts of Major Hurricane Beryl

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS providing subsidence which will keep us dry with slightly above normal temperatures. However, as we head into the latter portion of this week and weekend, uncertainty enters the forecast as we continue to monitor Major Hurricane Beryl.
With the National Hurricane Center forecasting for Beryl to be in the Bay of Campeche this weekend as a tropical storm, a few models are showing an influx of tropical moisture with periods of heavy rain. Due to the high uncertainty, went with 20-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon+ through Tuesday.
Regardless of the exact track of Beryl, high risk of rip currents can be expected this weekend into early next weak along with a medium chance for coastal flooding as the storm enters the Bay of Campeche.

Slightly above normal temperatures will mix with high dewpoints Thursday and Friday this week leading to heat index values between 109-113 each afternoon across the Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend. Current WPC probabilities show a 20-40% chance for heat index values to surpass 110 degrees those two days. Therefore, a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts are expected for the Independence Day holiday. If spending time outdoors, remember to remain hydrated and always look before you lock, cars can become ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions expected most of the TAF period with a brief period between 09Z-14Z when ALI and VCT may have MVFR conditions due to lower clouds and patchy fog. Surface winds will be SE and light overnight, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts around 20KT by Wed afternoon/evening.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Weak onshore flow this afternoon is expected to become weak to moderate by tomorrow but may become weak to moderate at times. No showers are expected but Saharan Dust may linger over the waters reducing visibility down to around 5 to 6 nautical miles. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to develop Thursday and continue through the end of the work week. Dry conditions are expected through much of the week, however, there is plenty of uncertainty towards the latter half of the week depending on the track and potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. As Beryl enters the Bay of Campeche, you can expect rain chances to increase as well as wave heights, especially across the offshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 79 94 80 95 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 77 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 83 93 83 94 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 78 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 92 / 0 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Aransas Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:53 AM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM CDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 AM CDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:57 PM CDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Channel, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:50 AM CDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 PM CDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:27 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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