Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aransas Pass, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A progressive pattern remains across much of the US through the end of the week with upper level troughing across the central portion of the country. For South Texas, this will keep short wave energy near the area, but the majority of it will remain northwest through the end of the week, keeping only very low rain chances over the region - think isolated streamer showers in the morning, or a shower or two approaching western counties later in the day. Breezy conditions will persist in the afternoons, with Friday being the breeziest day as a cold front approaches Texas, increasing the pressure gradient.

The aforementioned cold front will bring a big change this weekend.
The front wont move through until Saturday afternoon and evening, so will keep a warm forecast for the day, but expect a sharp drop in temps as the front moves through with a 10-20 degree drop. Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front as well, with medium chances through the afternoon and overnight. By Sunday into Monday, expect cooler than normal air near the surface with highs in the 60s. Easter to southeasterly winds above the surface will result in an isentropic lift pattern and light rain should persist into early next week. Very windy conditions are also expected on Sunday, especially in the Coastal Plains. A wind advisory may be necessary.
Rainfall totals will remain generally under an inch, though isolated higher totals will be possible.

We're continuing to keep an eye on coastal flooding potential for Friday into the weekend A gradual increase in tide levels is expected late in the week, and we could be looking at advisory level conditions Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MVFR CIGs will prevail mainly across eastern sites through the mid to late morning hours, with only TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs out west. CIGs will scatter to VFR across the region around 16Z or so as breezy southeasterly winds return. Expect sustained winds between 10- 15 knots and gusts up to 25-30 knots to continue through the afternoon and early evening hours.

MARINE
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6) onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions likely. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 88 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 95 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 74 83 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 95 70 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 88 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 74 81 74 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.