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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 931 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..South winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming southwest around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 931 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
strong onshore flow will continue to develop today leading to small craft advisory conditions through this evening for the bays and nearshore waters. These strong winds will persist over the offshore waters through Friday morning. There is a good chance we see a few gusts to gale force with seas climbing to near 12 feet at times. Scattered to numerous showers this morning will drop to scattered coverage and isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances diminish tonight but return to 30 to 60 percent on Friday. Patchy sea fog is possible tonight and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. North to northeast winds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through the first half of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will persist through Sunday night before decreasing to 2 feet of less early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 301747 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1147 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads - High Risk of Rip Currents Today - Breezy southerly flow picks up

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave trough approaching the region from the west. At the surface, patchy fog and light rain/drizzle can be seen across much of the region as moisture streams into the region. The latest GOES TPW imagery shows PWATs around 1.4-1.5" early this morning. PWATs will climb to near 1.6- 1.7" later this morning as a ~40 knot southerly LLJ becomes established. Latest MSAS analysis hints at a warm front beginning it's north-northeastward journey along the coast this morning. As this warm front moves north, a plume of instability, characterized by MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-3km SRH from 300-500 m2/s2, and moderate mid level lapse rates, will be tugged through the region. The greatest threat for severe storms today will be across the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend as they will be closer to the more favorable upper level dynamics.
As a result, SPC currently places our northeastern counties in a Slight Risk of Severe Storms. Convective activity is likely to develop around daybreak across our northeastern counties as we destabilize. Latest HRRR ensemble paintball keeps some isolated convection in the area through the early to mid afternoon hours.
As the LLJ strengthens even further, activity will shift towards southeast Texas. Slightly drier air will begin to work in from the west this afternoon which will help bring an end to our rain chances.

The development of patchy to areas of fog will be the main concern tonight. Lingering low level moisture and light winds will allow dewpoint depressions to narrow and condensation pressure deficits to fall into the 2-5mb range. SREF and HRRR probabilities continue to indicate a medium to high chance of visibility's less than 3 miles overnight. Patchy sea fog will also be possible over the bays and nearshore waters as water temps are in the low 60s and dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s.

A weak cold front will move through the region on Friday which will help improve visibilities across the region. This boundary will slowly drift south through the day, eventually moving offshore during the evening hours. A prefrontal trough is likely to develop ahead of the boundary leading to a slight chance of showers/storms, generally east of Highway 281, on Friday.

Lastly, there is a high risk of rip currents today for our Gulf- facing beaches as south-southeasterly winds pick up to 20-25 knots.
Buoy 19 is currently reporting wave heights around 6 feet and swells around 6 seconds. Gerling-Hanson plots show these values increasing through the day with wave heights up to 10 feet and swells from 8- 9s. All of these factors will lead to hazardous conditions along our coast today.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

No significant weather hazards are expected this weekend through the end of next week. While ensemble guidance has two 500 hPa troughs progressing across the Southern Plains during this timeframe, the amount of moisture return is expected to be very limited. NAEFS and ENS mean PWAT values ranging roughly between the 25th and 50th percentile of climatology through Wednesday of next week. Therefore, the chances for any measurable rainfall will remain less than 20% through next week. There is a high chance (70%) that temperatures next week will be either near or above normal.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Currently, LIFR to MVFR ceilings spread across South Texas west to east respectively. Convection is focused east of Victoria into Houston's area with showers extending southward into the Coastal Waters. Not expecting any additional rain through South Texas the rest of this afternoon and evening. Clouds are breaking and rising this morning and will continue through this afternoon, allowing for a period of VFR conditions with the exception of VCT (MVFR).
South to southeasterly wind gusts over 20 knots is expected through mid afternoon before diminishing quickly tonight down to light and variable. Significant low-level moisture and light winds will lead to another low IFR/LIFR ceiling and visibility event, predominately from 08-14Z. Rain chances return tomorrow morning over the southern half of the CWA, included VCSH at CRP/ALI.
Ceilings start to improve by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Strong onshore flow will continue to develop today leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions through this evening for the bays and nearshore waters. These strong winds will persist over the offshore waters through Friday morning. There is a good chance we see a few gusts to gale force with seas climbing to near 12 feet at times. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely through the day today with activity becoming more isolated on Friday.
Patchy sea fog is possible tonight and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. North/northeast winds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through the first half of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will persist through Sunday night before decreasing to 2 feet of less early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 81 67 78 61 / 30 0 20 0 Victoria 75 62 73 57 / 80 10 40 10 Laredo 76 61 75 56 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 80 63 77 57 / 20 0 20 0 Rockport 76 64 74 59 / 50 0 40 0 Cotulla 76 57 77 54 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 65 79 60 / 20 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 78 68 77 64 / 30 0 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ270-275.

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Rockport
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Thu -- 03:38 AM CST     0.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 PM CST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Thu -- 02:20 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:59 AM CST     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:13 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:51 PM CST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:32 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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Corpus Christi, TX,