Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aransas Pass, TX

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Windy conditions continue Saturday with peak gusts approaching 35 mph over the Coastal Plains.

- 25-45 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, Sunday through the middle of next week.

Saturday, a weak, cold front will move into South Texas with a 500 mb trough over New Mexico. The pressure gradient will tighten up once again during the day and produce another windy afternoon. The probability for sustained winds over 20 MPH is likely (70-90%), and wind gusts past 35 MPH a medium chance (40-60%). As the front moves closer, most of the forcing with the front will wash out as the 500 mb trough kicks northeast into the Texas Panhandle. The remnants of the cold front will reach the Middle Texas Coast on Sunday, and looks to linger over the region into the middle of next week. While there is little thermal support for the front the sfc trough remains as 500 mb shortwave trough pass through the region. This will keep the low chance (20-35%) for showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Bend through Thursday, before high pressure finally pushes the front out. The ECMWF also has a building 500 mb ridge over us on Thursday, while the GFS has another shortwave trough over the region. The GFS would continue showers into Thursday and Friday.
Like the ECWMF idea, but that is 7 days out so either scenario is plausible. The NBM as low chance (15-25%), Thursday, due to the uncertainty.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Currently have a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions across South Texas.
Expecting mainly MVFR CIGs overnight with eastern terminals hanging on to MVFR ceilings through the morning hours into the early afternoon before returning to VFR. Expect gusty southeast winds to continue overnight with gusts up to around 25 knots tonight, increasing to around 35 knots tomorrow afternoon. MVFR ceilings should re-develop again across eastern sites tomorrow evening.

MARINE
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Fresh to strong southeasterly winds (BF 5-6) will persist through Friday with seas generally 5-8 ft over the Gulf waters. Saturday into Sunday, winds will weaken to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) followed by a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Monday. As a weak, cold front moves into South Texas, on Monday, the winds will also back to the east. There will be a 25-45% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with the best chances over the northern waters. Lower shower and thunderstorm chances will linger through middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Generally improved fire weather conditions can be expected across the Western Brush country tomorrow, as minimum RH's increase to around 30%. However, paired with southeasterly winds at 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, elevated fire weather conditions will still exist. The elevated fire conditions may continue into Saturday over the Rio Grande Plains. However, improving fire weather conditions can be expected this weekend can continue through the middle of next week as the minimum relative humidity creeps up slightly and the winds decrease after Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 87 70 84 71 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 88 68 85 70 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 99 73 95 70 / 0 10 10 30 Alice 95 69 89 69 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 73 93 69 / 0 10 20 40 Kingsville 91 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 72 80 72 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275.