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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 934 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. Patchy fog after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. Areas of fog in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming west after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday night..East winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.

GMZ200 934 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
patchy to areas of sea fog expected tonight through Saturday morning. Generally weak to moderate north winds tonight and Saturday as a weak frontal boundary moves slowly offshore. The boundary will trigger isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms this evening. Drier conditions expected Saturday. Sunday, the winds offshore are expected to be moderate northwest flow, but will diminish through the day as high pressure takes control of the region. Sunday evening, winds are generally expected to be weak to moderate which will allow seas to decrease to 2 feet or less through the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 020353 AAA AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 953 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

The weak frontal boundary/trough axis was over the offshore waters and then extended southwest to the lower Texas coast. Some drier air pushed into the region behind the boundary with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. This boundary may drift back toward the coast into the near shore waters tonight. This could lead to some areas of fog forming in this region. Latest SREF probabilities are very low for fog forming over the inland areas. Latest HRRR does not show dense fog over this region either. So will keep areas of fog over the Gulf and just show patchy fog after midnight for inland areas through early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

An upper level disturbance/low amplitude 500-mb trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains/TX and provide synoptic scale lift late tonight through Saturday afternoon (GFS/ECMWF 700-300mb Q-vector convergence) over the CWA. Based on MSAS trends, a weak frontal boundary/trough is located over the nearshore waters, and has contributed to isolated/scattered convective activity over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads and adjacent waters. Concur with the deterministic ECMWF/GFS/NAM that the boundary moves very slowly offshore tonight/early Saturday, then more rapidly offshore Saturday afternoon as surface high pressure builds over the CWA from the west/northwest. Will concur with surrounding WFOs and dissipate precipitation over the CWA before 06z Saturday, a solution based on the expectation that precipitation will remain along/east of the boundary. Caveat, upper forcing/near normal PWAT values may result in isolated elevated convection over the eastern CWA/adjacent waters overnight/early Saturday. Anticipate patchy/areas of fog over the CWA 09-14z Saturday (NAM deterministic run predicts a moist surface-950mb layer, light surface wind, and much drier aloft, yet low probability for fog per the SREF). Based on the recent trends, expect tide level at Aransas Pass remain below 1.8ft MSL during the upcoming high tidal cycle, and thus will not hoist a CFW. Decided to extend the Moderate risk of rip currents to tonight, owing to recent 8s swell period/6 ft swell heights at 42019.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

The weather in the longer term looks relatively quiet through next Friday, as high pressure begins to take control. Sunday, with the cold front offshore, the high pressure begins to move into the rest of the forecast area, and out into the Gulf. Winds will diminish through the day, especially offshore. The moisture with this high looks to be fairly dry with PWAT values around 0.24" at KCRP and remaining below 1.00" through Monday. Moisture does increase to around 1.00" and remains around that level (around the median for this time of year) through Thursday. Tuesday was initially a concern, with past runs, but the disturbance that was trying to push north, looks to remain far enough south, not to mention not enough moisture, that Tuesday will remain dry. Friday is the only other chance for precipitation when a disturbance moves up from the south.
The GFS is the only deterministic model that has it. The ECMWF and CMC are dry, and most of the members are dry. So will go with the NBM slight chance (15-20%) for the Victoria Crossroads and the northern Coastal Bend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

MVFR ceilings will hold over the coastal region behind the weak front/trough over the coastal waters this evening, while VFR ceilings will exist farther inland over the inland coastal plains to the eastern Brush Country. Cirrus deck will cover the Brush Country this evening. Fog with MVFR vsbys expected to develop by 06Z Saturday for the coastal region with MVFR ceilings drifting inland. Ceilings should lower to IFR by 10Z over the coastal plains with fog over some areas in the Coastal Bend limiting vsbys to IFR through 14Z. Drier air will move into the region Saturday morning as winds turn to the northwest. Ceilings will improve to MVFR by mid morning and be VFR by early afternoon as clouds clear out, except for Victoria Crossroads where MVFR ceilings will linger into the latter part of the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Expect isolated/scattered convection to continue this evening near a weak frontal boundary currently over the nearshore waters.
Patchy to areas of sea fog expected tonight/early Saturday.
Whether dense fog occurs is highly uncertain. Drier conditions are expected by Saturday afternoon, as surface high pressure builds from the west/northwest. Isolated/scattered convection may develop again Saturday, mainly over the offshore waters, as the weak frontal boundary combines with an upper level disturbance.
Sunday, the winds offshore are expected to continue 15 to 20 knots but diminish through the day as high pressure takes control of the region. Sunday evening, winds are generally expected to be less than 15 knots which will allow seas to decrease to 2 feet or less through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 59 76 53 75 / 20 10 0 0 Victoria 54 74 49 74 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 56 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 56 76 50 77 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 57 72 55 73 / 30 10 0 0 Cotulla 53 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 59 76 52 75 / 20 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 74 59 72 / 20 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Fri -- 04:44 AM CST     0.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:43 PM CST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Fri -- 03:03 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM CST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:59 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:25 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM CST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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