Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aransas Pass, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

In the wake of this morning storms (and its wake low), we can expect mostly sunny skies today with the occasional high cirrus passing through. Given the relatively calm winds and high surface moisture, heat indices today will still climb into the mid to upper 90s Sunday afternoon with the HeatRisk reaching Moderate (level 2 of 4) levels at times. Patchy fog returns to the inland coastal plains overnight/Sunday morning.

The attention then shifts to the incoming frontal passage. Latest CAM guidance hints at upscale growth of storms from south-central Texas along the front poised to move through the late Sunday night and into Monday morning. While some CAMs want to disperse the shower/storm activity as it moves through South Texas, most of them have the thunderstorm activity increasing as it approaches Deep South Texas. The environment will be conditionally unstable enough to support damaging wind gusts with the convection immediately along the front. The more conducive parameters (0-6km shear and steeper mid-level lapse rates) will be in the western Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains (thus given the 5% chance for the hail risk in this area). That said, wind gusts will generally range as high as 50 mph between midnight and 6am Monday (isolated gusts near 60 mph) all along the frontal passage. For this reason, SPC has upgraded the severe weather threat to a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). As the front continues to move to the south, overall winds will be out of the N/NE at 15-20 mph and decreasing in the afternoon.

While Monday will be near-normal for temperatures, we see a warming trend back to above-normal values into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. By Sunday morning (from 06Z-14Z) light winds and abundant surface moisture will result in patchy fog, dropping conditions to MVFR/IFR. After 14Z, VFR conditions will redevelop with clearing skies.

MARINE
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Expect light to gentle (BF 2-3) variable winds with 2-3 ft seas through Sunday morning, with onshore winds increasing to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) strength by Sunday afternoon. Northeasterly winds associated with a cold front will start moving through the northern bays around midnight, reaching Baffin Bay by sunrise Monday morning.
Winds will be gusty and erratic with the storms along this frontal passage, gusting near 30 knots in the strongest storms. Seas increase to 3-4 ft. Winds will continue to be 15-20 kts for the remainder of the morning with a decrease occurring in the afternoon.

Otherwise, marine conditions are expected to remain fairly benign through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 89 74 86 / 0 0 60 10 Victoria 71 90 70 85 / 10 10 70 10 Laredo 73 97 73 87 / 0 0 80 10 Alice 72 92 73 87 / 0 10 60 10 Rockport 77 88 75 88 / 0 0 40 10 Cotulla 72 96 71 87 / 0 0 80 10 Kingsville 73 90 73 86 / 0 10 60 10 Navy Corpus 77 85 76 85 / 0 0 50 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.