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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Wednesday night..North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough.
Thursday..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy.
Saturday night..South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 919 Am Cst Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
weak to moderate northeast flow will shift east today then southeast through Thursday. Moderate south to southeasterly flow Thursday night will strengthen to strong and cause small craft advisory conditions Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning in advance of an approaching strong cold front. A strong cold front pushes through Saturday evening, causing winds to shift northerly and become strong at around 25 knots with gusts to gale Saturday night through Sunday morning. Northerly winds weaken Sunday afternoon and shift back onshore by Monday morning. There is a low to medium, 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

FXUS64 KCRP 061108 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 508 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Quiet weather will continue through Thursday. Winds will turn onshore today, resulting in an increase in moisture and slightly warmer temperatures for Thursday. Clouds will increase overnight with low temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Key Messages:

- Strong cold front pushes through Saturday afternoon into evening bringing a low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms

- Low to medium chance of elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains Saturday afternoon into early evening

- Minimum temperatures plummet into the mid to upper 30s inland Sunday night

A weak mid-level shortwave will pass over South Texas to start the long term Thursday night; with moisture increasing to above normal (>75th percentile) have included a low chance (20%) of showers over the Coastal Bend Thursday night. Afterwards, rain-free conditions take over through Friday night until a strong cold front pushes through South Texas Saturday afternoon into the evening. This will allow for a low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms during the day over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend, quickly focusing over the waters at night. Strong sustained winds around 20 mph and much drier air in wake will cause a low to medium chance of elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains in the afternoon into early evening hours.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be well above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but then drop sharply on Sunday in wake of the cold front to the low 60s. Onshore flow returns rather quickly by Sunday night and high temperatures night 70 in the middle of next week. There is a lot of uncertainty with Sunday night low temperatures due to the differences in time of return of onshore flow. The GEFS/ECENS mean have lows in the low to mid 40s whereas the CMC ensemble mean is in the low to mid 30s. Decided to stick with NBM with lows in the mid 30s over the northern Brush Country to the mid 40s along the coast. This is not unreasonable with clear skies, light winds, and dewpoints below freezing allowing for efficient radiational cooling.

Onshore flow early next week will gradually warm temperatures and increase moisture back to near or above normal by Tuesday. A weak low or shortwave advecting from the Pacific across Mexico into South Texas could set the stage for our next rain chances during the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Patchy fog has developed along the coast and the southern Coastal Plains. MVFR visibility will be possible across most of South Texas from 12Z to 14Z this morning. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible along the coast and southern Coastal Plains as well. VFR conditions with light winds are expected from 14Z through the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Weak to moderate northeast flow will shift east today then turn to the southeast through Thursday. Moderate south to southeasterly flow Thursday night will strengthen to strong and cause Small Craft Advisory conditions Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning in advance of an approaching strong cold front. A strong cold front pushes through Saturday evening, causing winds to shift northerly and become strong at around 25 knots with gusts to gale Saturday night through Sunday morning. Northerly winds weaken Sunday afternoon and shift back onshore by Monday morning. There is a low to medium, 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 70 56 74 64 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 70 47 72 60 / 0 0 0 20 Laredo 74 57 74 62 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 72 54 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 68 60 70 64 / 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 73 52 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 55 75 63 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 69 63 71 68 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:07 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:54 AM CST     0.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:37 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:22 PM CST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:07 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:50 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:52 AM CST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:21 AM CST     -0.09 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 12:28 PM CST     -0.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:37 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:56 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:18 PM CST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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