Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:28 PM   Moonset 3:49 AM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 308 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue as we head into the weekend. Rain chances will increase tomorrow as a cold front nears the region. By Saturday night, chances for showers and storms will 40-70% over the waters. Then there is a medium to high (30-60%) chance of showers and Thunderstorms Sunday morning as the cold front pushes across the gulf waters. Showers and Thunderstorms will end from west to east through Sunday afternoon as cooler and drier air moves into the area. Strong north winds will develop behind the cold front with small craft advisories likely Sunday through Sunday evening. A weak to moderate northeast wind can be expected Monday, becoming east to southeast Monday night and Tuesday.

FXUS64 KCRP 192014 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 314 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across northern counties tomorrow

▶ Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues into the weekend

Not much happening today weather-wise as persistence has a strong influence thanks due to a zonal mid-level flow and a northerly jet stream. With that said, rain chances are low (<25%) for rain/storms tonight out west where CAM guidance is once again trying to spin up an MCS overnight just west of our CWA over MX then moving east into Webb county where the environment is currently conducive for strong thunderstorms with CAPE around 2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk shear around 40 knots. The question remains if we can overcome the CAP. Confidence is low that a MCS will hold together as the system moves from west to east near our northwestern CWA border. The supportive environment quickly erodes during the late evening hours as shown by Model Sounding CAPE values dropping below 500 J/kg.

Tomorrow should start out fairly quiet ahead of the front that's progged to move through during the evening/overnight hours.
Shower/storm activity will ramp up as the front approaches the region through the day Saturday. Expecting a moderate chance (50- 70%) for storms/showers to develop by early evening, generally north of US HWY 59. Expecting FROPA between 00Z Sunday to around 09Z when the front should reach the coast. The environment will be marginally conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail of at least one-inch expected mainly across the northern tier of our region.

Temperatures: Today will top out in the 80s to mid 90s out west.
Tomorrow will be a little cooler with highs in the 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows tonight will bottom out in the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the mid 50s-60s tomorrow night.

Hazards: Strong to severe thunderstorms may result in damaging winds and large hail of at least 1.0 inch.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Sunday and Monday are shaping up to be pleasant with cooler and drier conditions.

- Warming trend through next week.

After a few lingering showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, mainly along the coast and over the coastal waters, cooler and drier air will filter into S TX on Sunday as high pressure builds across the region in the wake of a cold front. Temperatures Sunday are expected to be around 15 degrees cooler with highs generally in the low to mid 70s. Clouds will decrease throughout the day along with breezy northerly winds. Winds decrease through Sunday night with lows dropping into the 50s to around 60. Pleasant conditions continue Monday with highs a couple of degrees warmer as surface winds become onshore and begin to usher warmer moist air into the region.

The remainder of next week will continue to warm up into the 80s and 90s with ridging across the region and strengthening low level southerly flow.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Ceilings have been bouncing up and down under this cloud cover, however expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the afternoon and evening. Another night with similar conditions expected tonight with MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR VSBY's. There's a low chance (<30%) for showers and thunderstorms out west tonight but confidence is medium to low. Tomorrow ceilings expected to hang on into the afternoon hours before VFR conditions return towards the end of the TAF period. Looking ahead, an approaching cold front will ramp up chances for showers and storms starting tomorrow afternoon from low at the end of the TAF period increasing to moderate to high (50-70%) by the evening hours.
Should have more details in the next set of TAF's.

MARINE
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue as we head into the weekend. Rain chances will increase tomorrow as a cold front nears the region. By Saturday night, chances for showers and storms will 40-70% over the waters. Then there is a medium to high (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning as the cold front pushes across the gulf waters. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east through Sunday afternoon as cooler and drier air moves into the area. Strong north winds will develop behind the cold front with Small Craft Advisories likely Sunday through Sunday evening. A weak to moderate northeast wind can be expected Monday, becoming east to southeast Monday night and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 72 86 63 76 / 10 20 50 10 Victoria 70 83 58 68 / 10 50 70 10 Laredo 72 91 63 74 / 20 40 70 20 Alice 71 88 61 73 / 10 30 50 10 Rockport 72 83 62 74 / 10 20 50 10 Cotulla 71 85 61 71 / 30 60 70 0 Kingsville 71 87 62 75 / 10 20 50 10 Navy Corpus 73 83 65 77 / 10 20 50 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Fri -- 01:31 AM CDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:23 AM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:57 AM CDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:41 PM CDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:33 PM CDT     -0.07 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:53 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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