Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aransas Pass, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:01PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 5:53 AM CDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 403 Am Cdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Today..South wind around 10 knots. Bays slightly choppy.
Tonight..Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting southwest after midnight. Bays smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North wind 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast wind around 10 knots. Bays slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast wind around 10 knots. Bays slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ200 403 Am Cdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue over the waters today into this evening. A cold front will move through south texas and reach the coastal waters by early Wednesday morning. Northerly flow will increase to moderate levels during the day Wednesday. Scattered convection will develop as the cold front approaches late tonight and become scattered to numerous with the front Wednesday morning. Weak to moderate northeast flow is expected to develop across the middle texas coastal waters in the wake of the cold front with brief periods of small craft exercise caution conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. By Friday, onshore flow will return and lingering moisture over the gulf waters will result in rain chances through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aransas Pass, TX
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location: 27.94, -97.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 150901
afdcrp
area forecast discussion
national weather service corpus christi tx
401 am cdt Tue oct 15 2019

Short term (today through Wednesday)
Another very warm day will be in store for south texas today under
the influence of the mid level ridge axis just to the south of the
area. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal today. Relief
from the heat will arrive late tonight. An upper low trough will
be digging southeast through the upper midwest today and swing
down into the mid-mississippi river valley early Wednesday
morning. This will send a cold front into central texas this
evening that will push south into the forecast area during the
overnight hours. The front is expected to reach the coastal waters
by 12z Wednesday. Deep moisture will pool along the frontal
boundary as it moves south into the area with precipitable water
values expected to be around 2.1 inches. As a weak mid level
low forms over southwest texas tonight, a weak short wave trough
will move out of northeast mexico into south texas. Expect
convection will develop along the front near the hill country
this evening aided by right entrance region of an upper level
jet. This activity will move into the northern counties during
the overnight hours. Went with categorical pops across the
northern counties late tonight with chance pops for the coastal
areas. Good rain chances will continue into Wednesday as the
front pushes south of the area. Better rain chances will linger
over the western brush country in region of stronger upper level
divergence ahead of the upper low sagging south through the
big bend. Rain chances will diminish Wednesday afternoon over
the victoria crossroads as drier air filters into the area behind
the cold front.

Tide levels continue to run from 1 to 1.5 feet above expected
across the middle texas coast. P-etss and etss show the tide
levels will rise to above advisory criteria during the next high
tide cycle, although the estofs is showing the tides slightly
lower. Will go with p-etss etss at this time and extend the
advisory for islands south of port aransas until 06z Wednesday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
Wednesday morning's cold front is progged to push offshore and stall
over the gulf of mexico Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will
continue to filter into south texas behind the front resulting in
overnight lows on Wednesday to be near just a degree or two below
normal and high temperatures on Tuesday around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. In addition to the cooler conditions, rain chances will
diminish Wednesday night Thursday as drier low-level air settles in
across the area. However, given the shallow nature of this type of
environment, enough mid-level moisture will persist across the
region with pwats around 1.7 to 1.9 inches through Thursday. This
elevated moisture combined with lift from a shortwave trough that
has been following closely behind this system is expected to keep
isolated to scattered rain chances across portions of south texas
through Thursday as the disturbance slowly makes its way east across
central texas. As the shortwave trough exits the region, the stalled
boundary offshore is expected to lift back northward on Friday. This
will initiate the return of the onshore flow, low-level moisture,
and warmer temperatures to south texas as upper-level zonal flow
sets up through the weekend.

Looking toward the tropics (yes, I know we are not done with them
just yet), NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather south of
the yucatan peninsula with a low chance (30%) of tropical
development in the next 5 days. This system is progged to eventually
make its way into the bay of campeche by the end of the week. The
past few runs of the GFS gefs, ecmwf, and canadian models are
hinting at a 1003-1008mb surface low developing and making its way
north-northeastward across the western gulf of mexico this weekend.

Although timing of this system varies by model with ecmwf
developing pushing it northward much faster than the gfs, at this
time, it looks to remain east of our area. However regardless of
timing or development, this system may increase moisture for our
offshore waters as well as increase swells, rip current risk, and
coastal flooding potential along the middle texas coast this
weekend. Will continue to monitor and see how the models handle this
system over the next coming days, but this system should serve as a
friendly reminder that we are still in the midst of hurricane season
for another month and a half.

Lastly, toward the end of the extended period, the gfs GEFS and
ecmwf have been consistent over the past few days in developing
another potent upper-level system, which is progged to dig eastward
across the CONUS early next week. As the upper-level system
progresses and a colorado low develops pushes across the central
plains, a strong cold front looks to push southward through texas
early next week bringing another shot of cooler and drier conditions
for south texas.

Marine
A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue over the waters
today into this evening. The cold front is expected to move
through south texas and reach the coastal waters by 12z Wednesday.

Northerly flow will increase to moderate scec levels during the
day Wednesday. Scattered convection will develop as the front
approaches late tonight and become scattered to numerous with
the front Wednesday morning.

Weak to moderate northeast flow is expected to develop in the wake
of Wednesday morning's cold front. Lingering mid-level moisture and
the passage of shortwave trough will support rain chances across the
gulf waters Thursday. For Friday, onshore flow and moisture will
return as the cold front retreats back north as a warm front. Thus
resulting in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
through the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 96 72 78 64 79 10 50 50 20 30
victoria 94 69 73 60 77 10 80 50 20 30
laredo 98 71 74 62 77 0 60 80 30 30
alice 97 70 76 62 79 0 50 60 20 30
rockport 92 74 76 67 78 10 60 50 20 30
cotulla 99 67 71 59 76 0 90 80 30 30
kingsville 95 71 79 64 80 0 40 60 20 30
navy corpus 91 74 78 68 78 10 40 60 30 40

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am cdt Wednesday for the
following zones: kleberg islands... Nueces islands.

Gm... None.

Tmt 89... Short term
kw 92... Long term


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 6 mi53 min 80°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.8)
ANPT2 7 mi53 min SSE 15 G 17 82°F 80°F1011.6 hPa (-0.8)
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 7 mi53 min S 8 G 9.9 81°F 80°F1012.7 hPa (-0.7)
PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX 8 mi53 min S 15 G 16 81°F 81°F1012.4 hPa (-0.6)78°F
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 19 mi53 min 80°F 79°F1011.7 hPa (-0.8)
NUET2 23 mi53 min SSW 7 G 13 76°F1012.6 hPa (-0.8)
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 23 mi53 min SSE 8.9 G 12 81°F 77°F1012.7 hPa (-0.8)
AWRT2 25 mi53 min S 8.9 G 11 80°F 75°F1012 hPa (-0.8)
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 26 mi53 min SSE 17 G 19 81°F 81°F1012.1 hPa (-0.9)
IRDT2 34 mi53 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 1013.1 hPa (-0.8)
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 37 mi53 min SSE 6 G 7 79°F 79°F1013 hPa (-0.5)
BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX 48 mi53 min SSE 7 G 8 77°F 77°F1012.8 hPa (-0.7)
KMZG 49 mi18 min WSW 9.9 82°F 75°F

Wind History for Rockport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mc Campbell, TX8 mi78 minS 810.00 miFair81°F77°F89%1012.5 hPa
Port Aransas, Mustang Beach Airport, TX9 mi58 minS 1110.00 miFair81°F76°F86%1013.2 hPa
Rockport Aransas County Airport, TX10 mi60 minS 58.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1012.8 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX21 mi2 hrsS 810.00 miA Few Clouds79°F79°F100%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTFP

Wind History from TFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4CalmSW8SW9W8W6S7S9S11
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1 day agoNE7NE6NE8NE10NE8NE10NE11NE9E11E8E8E9E10E9E6E5E3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6
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NE5NE4NE8NE7NE7CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN5NE5N5NE8N4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas
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Rockport
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Tue -- 04:51 AM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:19 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.60.60.60.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:39 AM CDT     -0.16 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:45 AM CDT     -0.10 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 07:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:55 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:03 AM CDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:49 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:00 PM CDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.30.10.40.811.110.90.70.60.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.