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PMZ019 Central Gulf Of California- 551 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming nw to N 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 7 seconds.
Sat..NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Period 5 seconds.
Sun..NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Mon..NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 5 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 5 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS65 KTWC 012016 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 116 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weather system will exit the area this evening brining an end to rain and mountain snow showers. This will be followed by cold overnight temperatures this weekend into Monday. It will be dry next week and becoming much warmer by midweek.

DISCUSSION
Areas of rain have been fairly widespread across much of southeast Arizona over the past 12 to 24 hours. Most locales have seen 0.05"-0.25" with the focus being on areas from Tucson north and northeast. A few spots in eastern Pinal County have seen around half an inch. Latest KEMX radar imagery shows widespread shower activity from the Tucson Metro into western Cochise County with more scattered shower activity elsewhere. We've seen a few lightning strikes today and we can't rule out a few more through the afternoon. Regarding snow on the mountain peaks, we did have 1" of snow overnight at Summerhaven with a bit more added on today based on webcam imagery. As the troughiness shift to the east, rain chances will diminish from west to east later this afternoon through this evening. We are now ending the Winter Weather Advisory for the White Mountains and Sky Islands a few hours earlier at 2 AM as precipitation should be wrapped up by then across our entire forecast area. As skies clear overnight, the HRRR is depicting 30 to 60% chances of areas of fog, focused on valley locations mainly east of Tucson. Certainly the areas that received more rain will have better chances of fog.

Once any residual morning fog burns off Saturday morning, expect mostly sunny skies with continued below normal temperatures as highs will be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. The coldest night will be Saturday night and we continue to watch for the potential for near freezing temperatures in the Tucson Metro. At this time, based on the latest NBM/HRRR guidance, the highest probability (20-30 percent) for temperatures at or below freezing will be in the coldest spots such as near washes and on the outskirts of the Tucson Metro. The areal extent of freezing temperatures is not widespread enough to warrant any freeze headlines but for those in the usually colder spots, typical precautions of protecting pipes, plants etc. should be taken.

A strong warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into next week as an anomalously strong ridge builds in. By mid to late next week expect highs about 80 in Tucson which is more than 10 degrees above normal. Record highs during the period range from 82 to 85 degrees so it's certainly quite warm for December. By next weekend, indications are a significant pattern change towards a much colder and potentially wetter pattern will take place. Stay tuned over the upcoming days for more on that.

AVIATION
Valid through 03/00z.
BKN-SCT 7-10K ft MSL with BKN-OVC layers ABV. ISOLD to SCT -SHRA and mountain SHSN. MTNS partially to mostly obscured at times in clouds and also due to SHRA/SHSN until about 02/04Z. Conds imprvg from W-E during aft 02/00Z. Areas of fog possible 02/06Z- 02/16Z but confidence too low to include in TAFS. W-SW SFC winds 8-16 kts becoming light/variable 02/03Z-02/18Z, then becoming NWLY 5-10 kts late in the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A slow moving storm system will bring scattered rain and mountain snow showers into tonight. Snow will be confined to elevations above about 6,000 ft. Dry Saturday onward with cold overnight temperatures through Monday then becoming much warmer than normal by the middle of next week. Winds generally light, less than 15 mph sustained, with a bit of afternoon gustiness at times well into next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for AZZ510-511.

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Guaymas
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:57 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:08 AM MST     0.91 meters High Tide
Fri -- 10:56 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:32 PM MST     -0.10 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 09:27 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Guaymas
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:57 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM MST     0.89 meters High Tide
Fri -- 10:56 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:46 PM MST     -0.08 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 09:27 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico (3), Tide feet

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