Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nogales, AZ

DISCUSSION
Mostly sunny skies across southeast Arizona this afternoon as below normal temperatures make it a cool April day.
With the upper low near the Four Corners and and weak trough axis extending into Arizona, breezes will continue especially east of Tucson.

Over the upcoming period, we're seeing a typical April pattern with the main storm track generally to our north with periods of increased breezes/winds as each respective system passes to our north. In the near term, Wednesday will have light winds as shortwave ridging traverses through southeast Arizona. Temperatures will warm about 3 to 8 degrees compares to today (less warming east, more west).

Another system will move through the Great Basin Thursday and into the central Rockies Friday resulting in another period of increased breezes for all of southeast Arizona Thursday and Friday. Some locales, especially across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise County on Thursday and Friday will approach critical fire weather thresholds.
While we're confident that RH values will meet critical levels, it's the winds that are more borderline in nature. Official forecast wind speeds have been increased to around NBM 75th percentile during this period, but that still is a little bit below widespread critical thresholds, so we'll continue to monitor trends over upcoming shifts for potential fire weather headlines. Meanwhile, temperatures will nudge briefly higher Thursday to slightly above normal, then cool to near normal levels Friday.

Another shortwave ridge is expected Saturday so that will result in some lighter winds before ensembles show increasing southwest flow around Sunday and Monday resulting in another uptick in breezes.
Temperatures warm to above normal levels this weekend into early next week.

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AVIATION
Valid through 16/00z.
FEW-SCT clouds 6-10k ft AGL thru 15/02Z, then expect SKC conditions.
SFC winds SWLY 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts thru 15/02Z with the strongest winds at KDUG. Wind speeds at KTUS and KOLS on the lower end of that range. After 15/02Z winds decrease below 10 kts and become variable, then remain 10 kts or less with winds becoming WLY/NWLY aft 15/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Expect breezy winds mainly east of Tucson with speeds 12-18 mph and gusts 20-30 mph this afternoon. Wednesday winds will be mostly light and terrain driven 5 to 10 mph. Another Pacific system will move to our north Thursday and Friday leading to another round strong gusty winds. While RH values are expected to meet critical thresholds, uncertainty continues on whether wind speeds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag headlines. Regardless, at least near critical fire weather conditions are expected during this periods. As trends evolve, confidence will increase on the potential for fire weather headlines. Light winds return Saturday before an increase in breezes again around Sunday and into early next work week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.