Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nogales, AZ
March 28, 2024 7:03 PM PDT (02:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 6:50 PM Moonrise 10:01 PM Moonset 8:03 AM |
PMZ019 Central Gulf Of California- 858 Am Pdt Thu Mar 28 2024
This afternoon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Tonight - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming S to sw 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft in the evening, becoming 2 ft or less. Period 11 seconds.
Fri - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 12 seconds.
Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 5 seconds.
Sat - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Sat night - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Sun - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Sun night - SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 4 seconds.
Mon night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 10 seconds.
Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTWC 282100 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 PM MST Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures will continue into Saturday before a weather system brings colder temperatures and widespread precipitation chances Sunday into early next week. Rain and accumulating mountain snow is likely. Winds will increase ahead of this system on Friday, with windy conditions lasting through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
High level cloud cover is currently streaming across the area and will remain through much if not all of Friday as a deep storm system begins to settle along the northern/central California coast. Not enough cloud cover to hinder warming especially given the overnight low temperatures will be on the mild side thanks to the cloud cover. Breezy conditions will develop Friday afternoon which is another sign of the approaching storm system.
By Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten further ahead of this anonymously deep low with even stronger winds expected Saturday.
Some locations may need a wind advisory in the future. With the slightly lower heights/thicknesses, afternoon temperatures should be a degree or two lower than Friday with the precipitation holding off until Sunday.
The start of the precipitation will be associated with and a bit ahead of a rather strong cold front. At this time, the rain band is expected to be over western Pima county and the Tohono O'odham Nation around dawn that morning then move east to the Tucson area late morning then to the AZ/NM border that evening. Given that it is around three days out that timing could shift a couple of hours either way. Strong gusty winds will also accompany the front, with potential for thunderstorms which would be capable of enhancing the already gusty winds. Given the strength of the front, temperatures are expected to drop a fair amount and quickly behind the front into the afternoon hours. An example would be Tucson where the high temp will be around or just above 60 degrees around 11 am then quickly drop into the lower 50s behind the front and remain there the remainder of the day. Should be a good shot of rainfall with this front and a 1/3 to 1/2 an inch of valley rainfall is a good bet with locally more. Mountains should easily double that.
At the leading edge of the front the snow level will be around 7,500 ft and is expected to drop to around 6,500 ft overall except briefly down to or a bit below 6,000 ft with heavier precipitation. So accumulating snows above that level once again to keep the tops of the Sky Islands and the White Mountains snow covered for awhile longer.
Monday, the upper trough is over the area with another wave rotating through the trough to enhance precipitation during the day. The winds will be much lighter than Sunday with high temperatures running 15-20 degrees colder than average, overall a damp and rather cool day. By Tuesday morning valley storm totals are expected to range from around a third of an inch southeast Cochise county up to around an inch over southeast Pinal county with around 3/4 inch in the Tucson Metro west across Pima county. As far as snow accumulations, the higher parts of the Sky Islands and White Mountains may see another six inches of accumulation or so with some higher amounts possible.
By Tuesday, the upper low remains over the area but has started to move out of the region with moisture and dynamics decreasing. Still looking at cyclonic flow and a cold air mass aloft so a few afternoon instability showers are a good bet. With that cold air mass aloft and some clearing, morning lows could be quite chilly with some near freezing temperatures in the typically colder valleys of Graham and Cochise counties Tuesday morning. That afternoon will remain well below normal with highs only a few degrees warmer than Monday.
As the low continues to vacate the region and higher pressure builds aloft, afternoon temperatures will warm 6-10 degrees for Wednesday afternoon and another five degrees or so Thursday for highs right near normal for the day.
AVIATION
Valid through 30/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft MSL through the period. West winds 8-14 kt becoming light and terrain driven AFT 29/03Z. SFC winds Friday becoming SWly and increasing to 12-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt after 29/16Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Warm through Saturday as an upper level ridge moves across the area.
Winds will increase on Friday to around 15 to 25 mph ahead of an approaching storm system, which may overlap relative humidities of 10 to 15 percent in the lower elevations. Winds should become a bit stronger on Saturday, though moisture will be on the rise. Good chances for widespread precipitation arrive with a cold front by early Sunday, lasting through Monday and potentially into Tuesday.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 PM MST Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm temperatures will continue into Saturday before a weather system brings colder temperatures and widespread precipitation chances Sunday into early next week. Rain and accumulating mountain snow is likely. Winds will increase ahead of this system on Friday, with windy conditions lasting through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
High level cloud cover is currently streaming across the area and will remain through much if not all of Friday as a deep storm system begins to settle along the northern/central California coast. Not enough cloud cover to hinder warming especially given the overnight low temperatures will be on the mild side thanks to the cloud cover. Breezy conditions will develop Friday afternoon which is another sign of the approaching storm system.
By Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten further ahead of this anonymously deep low with even stronger winds expected Saturday.
Some locations may need a wind advisory in the future. With the slightly lower heights/thicknesses, afternoon temperatures should be a degree or two lower than Friday with the precipitation holding off until Sunday.
The start of the precipitation will be associated with and a bit ahead of a rather strong cold front. At this time, the rain band is expected to be over western Pima county and the Tohono O'odham Nation around dawn that morning then move east to the Tucson area late morning then to the AZ/NM border that evening. Given that it is around three days out that timing could shift a couple of hours either way. Strong gusty winds will also accompany the front, with potential for thunderstorms which would be capable of enhancing the already gusty winds. Given the strength of the front, temperatures are expected to drop a fair amount and quickly behind the front into the afternoon hours. An example would be Tucson where the high temp will be around or just above 60 degrees around 11 am then quickly drop into the lower 50s behind the front and remain there the remainder of the day. Should be a good shot of rainfall with this front and a 1/3 to 1/2 an inch of valley rainfall is a good bet with locally more. Mountains should easily double that.
At the leading edge of the front the snow level will be around 7,500 ft and is expected to drop to around 6,500 ft overall except briefly down to or a bit below 6,000 ft with heavier precipitation. So accumulating snows above that level once again to keep the tops of the Sky Islands and the White Mountains snow covered for awhile longer.
Monday, the upper trough is over the area with another wave rotating through the trough to enhance precipitation during the day. The winds will be much lighter than Sunday with high temperatures running 15-20 degrees colder than average, overall a damp and rather cool day. By Tuesday morning valley storm totals are expected to range from around a third of an inch southeast Cochise county up to around an inch over southeast Pinal county with around 3/4 inch in the Tucson Metro west across Pima county. As far as snow accumulations, the higher parts of the Sky Islands and White Mountains may see another six inches of accumulation or so with some higher amounts possible.
By Tuesday, the upper low remains over the area but has started to move out of the region with moisture and dynamics decreasing. Still looking at cyclonic flow and a cold air mass aloft so a few afternoon instability showers are a good bet. With that cold air mass aloft and some clearing, morning lows could be quite chilly with some near freezing temperatures in the typically colder valleys of Graham and Cochise counties Tuesday morning. That afternoon will remain well below normal with highs only a few degrees warmer than Monday.
As the low continues to vacate the region and higher pressure builds aloft, afternoon temperatures will warm 6-10 degrees for Wednesday afternoon and another five degrees or so Thursday for highs right near normal for the day.
AVIATION
Valid through 30/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft MSL through the period. West winds 8-14 kt becoming light and terrain driven AFT 29/03Z. SFC winds Friday becoming SWly and increasing to 12-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt after 29/16Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
Warm through Saturday as an upper level ridge moves across the area.
Winds will increase on Friday to around 15 to 25 mph ahead of an approaching storm system, which may overlap relative humidities of 10 to 15 percent in the lower elevations. Winds should become a bit stronger on Saturday, though moisture will be on the rise. Good chances for widespread precipitation arrive with a cold front by early Sunday, lasting through Monday and potentially into Tuesday.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Guaymas
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:19 AM MST -0.14 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM MST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM MST Moonset
Thu -- 01:22 PM MST 0.37 meters High Tide
Thu -- 03:19 PM MST 0.36 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 PM MST Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM MST 0.70 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:59 PM MST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:19 AM MST -0.14 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM MST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM MST Moonset
Thu -- 01:22 PM MST 0.37 meters High Tide
Thu -- 03:19 PM MST 0.36 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 PM MST Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM MST 0.70 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:59 PM MST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet
12 am |
0.5 |
1 am |
0.4 |
2 am |
0.2 |
3 am |
0.1 |
4 am |
-0.1 |
5 am |
-0.1 |
6 am |
-0.1 |
7 am |
-0 |
8 am |
0.1 |
9 am |
0.2 |
10 am |
0.3 |
11 am |
0.3 |
12 pm |
0.4 |
1 pm |
0.4 |
2 pm |
0.4 |
3 pm |
0.4 |
4 pm |
0.4 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
0.5 |
7 pm |
0.6 |
8 pm |
0.6 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
0.7 |
11 pm |
0.6 |
Santa Rosalia
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:02 AM MST 0.06 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM MST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM MST Moonset
Thu -- 06:44 PM MST Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM MST 0.69 meters High Tide
Thu -- 10:04 PM MST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:02 AM MST 0.06 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM MST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM MST Moonset
Thu -- 06:44 PM MST Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM MST 0.69 meters High Tide
Thu -- 10:04 PM MST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Santa Rosalia, Baja California Sur, Mexico, Tide feet
12 am |
0.5 |
1 am |
0.4 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
0.2 |
4 am |
0.1 |
5 am |
0.1 |
6 am |
0.1 |
7 am |
0.1 |
8 am |
0.1 |
9 am |
0.2 |
10 am |
0.3 |
11 am |
0.3 |
12 pm |
0.4 |
1 pm |
0.4 |
2 pm |
0.5 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
0.5 |
5 pm |
0.6 |
6 pm |
0.6 |
7 pm |
0.6 |
8 pm |
0.7 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
0.7 |
11 pm |
0.6 |
Tucson, AZ,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE