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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 154 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft exercise caution tonight...
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 154 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis.. Northeast winds will remain in place through the next couple of days before turning more east and then southeast for Thursday into Friday. Overall, wind speeds will remain rather elevated, with periodic increases into the 15 to 20-knot range, so mariners should continue to exercise caution.

FXUS62 KTBW 281853 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 153 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION
A moisture-rich westerly flow aloft has kept high clouds across the local area all day, while surface high pressure over the deep south has kept a dry north-northeast low-level flow in place. This setup has led to temperatures well below normal this afternoon with warming about done for the day. As we head into tonight, the surface high shifts more directly over the southeast with a push of drier air moving over the region as well. This will help clear out some of the clouds and allow temperatures to drop to the coldest values seen so far this season. Indeed, we are expecting freezing temperatures for parts of the Nature Coast and mainly 40s elsewhere and a Freeze Warning is in place for Inland Levy county.
We will then see temperatures warm by several degrees for Wednesday afternoon (when compared with today) as we can expect to see much more sun. Then for Thursday, expect a similar start to the day with near- freezing temperatures for northern areas, but temperatures will warm even more into the afternoon as the surface high shifts eastward and we start to moderate.

The surface high continues shifting eastward on Friday as a shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and a frontal system moves into the southeast. This boundary looks to stall for the weekend, with several upper disturbances moving over the region. Details are still a little uncertain, but the forecast for now calls for increased humidity, cloud cover, and a return of some rain chances.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the period with continued north- northeast winds.

MARINE
Northeast winds will remain in place through the next couple of days before turning more east and then southeast for Thursday into Friday. Overall, wind speeds will remain rather elevated, with periodic increases into the 15 to 20-knot range, so mariners should continue to exercise caution.

FIRE WEATHER
A few hours of critically low relative humidity values are expected across portions of the area Wednesday afternoon, but winds will be too light for Red Flag conditions. Moisture returns enough on Thursday and the next several days, with no other fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 45 65 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 47 72 53 80 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 43 66 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 45 68 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 34 64 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 50 64 53 73 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland Levy.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.

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