Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 5:44 PM   Moonset 4:06 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 254 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest this afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 254 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis - Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected.

FXUS62 KTBW 210654 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 254 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Scattered showers and an isolated storm possible this afternoon and evening as NE flow south of surface ridging over the E Seaboard extending down into the state advects Atlantic moisture across the area and the E-W coast sea breezes interact initially over the interior before spreading toward the W FL coast. Ridging aloft builds over the area from the W Gulf through Friday leading to low rain chances mid to late week with increased subsidence likely limiting sufficient moisture and convective activity to southern interior and SWFL locations, where sea breeze interactions may be able to squeeze out a few showers and storms from Wed-Fri.

Ridging aloft breaks down over the weekend as a series of shortwave disturbances and associated surface systems push across the E U.S. to our north allowing winds to shift more southerly as the surface ridging over the E Seaboard is displaced SE into the W Atlantic. Slightly higher rain chances return during the weekend in the absence of the ridging aloft coupled with the southerly flow, with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms generally favoring areas E of I-75 except for parts of SWFL.

Early next week, ridging aloft looks to extend across the S Gulf while broad troughing over the E U.S. extends S into the N Gulf states, with surface ridging setting up E of the state in the Atlantic. This would favor the potential for increased moisture working across the state with deep layer westerly flow, with scattered showers and storms likely focusing toward interior areas and E FL with lesser chances toward W FL and coastal areas.

Temps through the period are likely to warm a bit after today, with highs today in the lower 90s away from the coast and the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast due to the sea breeze. Mid week and beyond will feature highs in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast with pockets of upper 90s possible, especially Wed- Fri, with areas closer to the coast in the upper 80s to around 90.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR through period with E-NE winds overnight into morning turning onshore and increasing during the afternoon with the sea breeze for coastal terminals. Chance of a few showers reaching terminals during evening before dissipating as interior convection triggered by afternoon sea breeze works back toward the coast, however low enough confidence to exclude mention this cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure along the E Seaboard and over the waters through late week will favor NE to E winds, turning onshore with the sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late week into the weekend allowing winds to become southerly over the weekend and westerly early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure ridging into the state from the Mid-Atlantic will favor NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic over the weekend allowing winds to shift more southerly. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 74 92 75 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 93 73 93 74 / 20 20 20 10 GIF 90 71 92 71 / 30 10 10 0 SRQ 91 73 92 73 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 91 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 89 77 92 78 / 10 10 10 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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