Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockport, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As the ridge continues to progress to the east through tomorrow, we will have strong return flow into the region. The pattern will begin to shift as we have a trough digging around the Four Corners region digging south and extending into West Texas/Northern Mexico. This will send a series of mid-level shortwave disturbances into our region. In addition to this, deep Pacific moisture will also be pumped into the region increasing PWATs to around 2.0", well above normal for this time of year climatologically speaking (99th percentile). Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the area will receive rain. How much each part of the area will get will be decided on how the shortwaves track through the region. As of now, the LREF is continuing to maintain high confidence that all of South Texas will receive 1" of rainfall (60-75%) through next Saturday.
Will continue to monitor the trends in regards to this due it still being a few days out.

Heat stress conditions will be another biproduct of the influx of moisture in the region. The increased moisture will lead to very warm dew points and increased cloud cover. This will not allow for temperatures to recover effectively overnight leading to warm overnight lows and warmer highs during the day. Confidence is increasing for heat indices around 100-110 degrees from Saturday through mid-next week. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety.

P-ETSS guidance is portraying tide levels potentially 2.0 ft MSL late this weekend. This would also coincide with the new moon beginning Saturday and likely increased winds with greater swells.
This will lead to minor coastal flooding and increased risk of rip currents through early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the region through the TAF cycle. Winds are expected to be southeasterly around 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots through this evening. Winds will briefly lax in most spots before increasing again tomorrow morning. Some periods of MVFR CIGs will be possible at a couple of sites overnight (LRD,COT,VCT).

MARINE
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Southeasterly moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze today and persist into the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this afternoon through early Saturday morning for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. An extension or/and expansion of the advisory may be necessary as we progress through the weekend. There are low to medium rain chances beginning daily on Tuesday next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. Although minimum relative humidity may drop to 25-30% this afternoon along with breezy southeasterly winds, energy release components are below the 25th percentile and fuel moisture is mainly normal to dry. Following today, no elevated fire weather conditions are expected into the middle of next week.
Moisture increases significantly later this weekend and continues through next week, bringing minimum relative humidity to only 45-60% over the Brush Country, along with daily low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 75 88 79 89 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 72 89 76 91 / 0 0 20 0 Laredo 72 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 93 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 87 79 88 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 72 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 85 79 86 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-250.