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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 247 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough.
Saturday night..North winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 247 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
a moderate southeasterly flow will continue through Thursday. A 40 to 60 percent chance of showers and Thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon before decreasing to a low chance (20%) tonight. Rain chances increase through the day on Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move across the waters Thursday night and Friday and trigger scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms. Weak to moderate northeast flow will develop behind the front on Friday, then increase to moderate to strong flow Friday night and Saturday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday night. Winds could occasionally gust to gale force. Seas up to 9 feet are possible. Northeast winds will weaken to light to moderate on Sunday.

FXUS64 KCRP 042348 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 648 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Isolated flash floods possible across South Texas on Thursday

- Cold front trending earlier, pushing through Thursday afternoon bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms

- Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents remains in effect through Thursday morning

A weak mid-level ridge over Deep South Texas has kept rain-free conditions in place across the area with the exception of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Waters. These areas have the greatest moisture and have a band of 850mb positive vorticity to aid in lift support for convection. Activity will diminish tonight as heating is lost.

On Thursday, an aggressive mid-level trough will move eastward across the Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and push a cold front across South Texas. Latest CAM guidance now extends far enough to cover the cold front timing and has trended faster than previous forecasts. Most CAM guidance has the cold front entering Victoria County around 10-11 AM and push southwestward across South Texas through the afternoon. Expecting numerous showers and thunderstorms along the leading edge of the cold front with instability able to climb by mid-day with a decrease coverage to scattered in wake of the front Thursday night due to overrunning. Severe weather risk is extremely low, however, strong winds with these storms will be possible due to steep low-level lapse rates and a DCAPE near 1000 J/kg.

WPC does maintain a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across all of South Texas Thursday through Thursday night, meaning isolated flash flooding is possible. Although flash flood guidance decreased some due to recent rainfall over portions of South Texas, it remains about 2-4 inches over 3 hours. Storm total QPF from tonight through Thursday night is generally less than 2 inches. Since localized higher amounts of rainfall are possible, a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is reasonable.

Greater rain and cloud cover will drop highs into the mid 80s over the Victoria Crossroads on Thursday, with potential low 90s elsewhere with heating remaining likely through most of the morning hours. Dry air lagging behind and mostly cloudy skies will keep low temperatures in the 70s.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

- The cold front will arrive earlier than previously expected, therefore chances for showers and thunderstorms have decreased for Friday and Saturday

- Minor Coastal Flooding is likely during times of high tides through Saturday.

Forecast guidance has changed a bit from previous forecast packages.
The cold front that was initially expected to move across South Texas looks like it will be faster than initially predicted. Winds will shift and drier and cooler air will move in as early as Friday afternoon which will reduce the convective potential--from the 40- 65% chances in the previous forecast to 20-50% chances for this forecast package.

A reinforcing surge of high pressure is still expected late Friday night and Saturday, which will increase northeasterly flow. Winds could gust to around 30 mph over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures will drop significantly behind this front, with highs expected to top out near 80 for Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will gradually increase early next week, but expect these cooler temperatures to linger for awhile.

Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue through Saturday with persistent northeasterly flow and long period swell.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the overnight, before a cold front advances into the area by mid to late morning Thursday.
Expect thunderstorms to develop ahead of and along the front, beginning as early as around sunrise for CRP, and late morning to early afternoon for other TAF sites. Exact timing of storms isn't nailed down yet, so have a pretty wide span for most sites. Do have storms ending for VCT prior to the end of the period, and only VC for COT. Other sites will end later, thus have extended it through the end of this TAF period. Winds will shift around to the north behind the front at mainly moderate levels.

MARINE
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A moderate southeasterly flow will continue through Thursday. A 40 to 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon before decreasing to a low chance (20%)
tonight. Rain chances increase through the day on Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move across the waters Thursday night and Friday and trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Weak to moderate northeast flow will develop behind the front on Friday, then increase to moderate to strong flow Friday night and Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday night. Winds could occasionally gust to Gale Force. Seas up to 9 feet are possible. Northeast winds will weaken to light to moderate on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 77 90 73 86 / 30 60 40 50 Victoria 76 86 71 86 / 40 70 30 40 Laredo 78 94 73 86 / 10 60 40 50 Alice 76 91 72 87 / 20 70 40 50 Rockport 78 90 73 88 / 40 70 40 50 Cotulla 77 90 74 88 / 20 70 30 40 Kingsville 77 92 73 86 / 20 70 40 50 Navy Corpus 80 90 76 87 / 40 60 40 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245- 342>344-346-347.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.

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Rockport
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Wed -- 06:00 AM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:12 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:08 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:50 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:03 PM CDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:31 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:35 PM CDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:09 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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Corpus Christi, TX,