Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockport, TX

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Strong cold front expected by Tuesday of next week which brings more cold air into the region for Wednesday.

- Lower to mid 30s possible over most of South Texas next Thursday morning (see discussion for probabilities).

The return flow will be weak, but despite that, Monday should warm up quite a bit as the low level and upper level moisture will be out of the region, or over the Gulf. Expecting sunny to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon, so the sunshine should warm things nicely.
Still a few showers over the offshore waters. The next system looks to be heading into South Texas around Monday night as another cold front moves down into the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures cool from Monday to Tuesday, about 15°, and then another 10° from Tuesday to Wednesday, as the sfc high and the cold dome of air following the cold front moves in the region. The low temperatures are where they affect is really felt. As the cold air continues its march south.
The northern Brush Country, Victoria Crossroads and the northern Rio Grande Plains have lows in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday morning.
More cold air continues over the region, Wednesday night/Thursday morning the models are tempering the cold pool, with lows of the mid to upper 30s now over most of south Texas. The probability of getting below 32°F is still between 45%-75% from around Choke Canyon, to Beeville to Victoria. The high pressure and cold air move slowly north and east Thursday and Friday, allowing the return flow to increase so that temperatures rise into the upper 60s on Thursday and the 70s on Friday. Saturday, a 500 mb shortwave moves through the region with the moisture from the Gulf, so low chance of showers along the Coastal Bend

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Ceilings will waffle between IFR and LIFR overnight as moisture overrides the shallow cold pool, which will gradually erode on Sunday. A series of mid level disturbances will cross South Texas from west to east late tonight and Sunday morning bringing light rain and some reduced visibilities. Low clouds should begin to break up by midday Sunday as the disturbance exits the region and VFR conditions should overspread the region by late afternoon with the exception of VCT where MVFR ceilings will hang on. Will have to watch for a potential for fog late Sunday Night/Monday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Light north to northwest winds will continue tonight as a trough moves away from the region. Expect areas of rain through the weekend. A strong cold front will move off the coast on Tuesday with a medium 30-40% chance for Gale conditions in its wake Tuesday afternoon and night. Winds will become and remain weak to moderate on Wednesday through Saturday, as high pressure settles into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 53 69 61 84 / 30 30 10 0 Victoria 50 66 56 83 / 30 30 0 0 Laredo 49 65 57 83 / 40 20 0 0 Alice 50 69 59 85 / 40 40 0 0 Rockport 53 68 61 78 / 30 30 10 0 Cotulla 48 64 53 84 / 20 20 0 0 Kingsville 52 71 60 85 / 30 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 56 69 65 78 / 20 20 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.