Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockport, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a warming trend can be expected across the region through the end of the week ahead of the next cold front. Timing and strength of the next cold front is uncertain due to differences in the models. The models have backed off on timing and strength from previous runs. The GFS is the fastest and strongest with a FROPA Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF shows a weak front on Saturday that does not quite make it through S TX and the Canadian shows a FROPA by Monday. This is probably due to the upper flow steering the front more southeastward rather than southward.

One thing the models do agree on is that they show a strong surface high pressure around 1040mb and very cold negative temperatures over Canada and into the northern CONUS by Thursday. Typically the models do not handle strong shallow cold fronts very well. Sometimes these type of strong fronts have enough momentum to slide south and blast through S TX despite the upper flow. Will continue to monitor trends and will likely see changes to the weekend forecast as new data becomes available.

At this time, rain chances look low (10%-20%) and up to 30% across the coastal waters beginning Friday.

A south to southeast flow returns by Tuesday, which will usher higher dewpoints into S TX. With generally dry air aloft and light winds, fog and dense fog will be possible beginning Wednesday morning. The SREF shows up to a 40-50% chance of visibilities less than 1 mile along the interior Coastal Plains.

Areas of sea fog are also possible by mid week due to sea surface temps being in the mid 60s along the coast. But it will depend on just high the dewpoints get over the waters as to whether or not sea fog develops.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light generally from the northeast through this afternoon, then light and variable tonight into Tuesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A fresh (BF 5) north to northeast flow across the coastal waters will decrease to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze through this afternoon, and then a gentle breeze tonight. Northeasterly winds will gradually shift southeast to south by Tuesday, becoming gentle to moderate once again. Another cold front is expected by the weekend along with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will dip below 30% daily through mid week, mainly across the Brush Country. However, due to low ERC and generally weak to moderate winds, confidence is low for any elevated fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 42 69 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 35 69 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 42 71 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 38 71 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 47 66 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 38 71 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 39 71 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 52 67 60 74 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.