Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melbourne Beach, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Rest of Today-Thursday...High coverage of clouds and breezy to windy northerly winds have kept temperatures in the 40s from Melbourne northward and in the lower 50s across the south today.
As of 2PM, the Orlando International Airport was still below the record cool high temperature for the date. This will be watched through the afternoon, though daytime heating is now diminishing.
While showers have largely tapered off, isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through Thursday evening, as the front continues to stall over the Straits of Florida. Winds are forecast to become northeasterly overnight along the coast, allowing for showers to drift onshore through the morning hours.
PoPs 20-30%, mainly south and east of Orlando.

The pressure gradient continues to slacken. However, breezy to windy conditions persist, especially along the coast, this afternoon. Winds 15-20mph this afternoon will become 10-15mph overnight, where they will remain into Thursday. Winds may be breezy at times again along the coast, though gusts are not forecast to reach speeds as high as were observed today (gusts up to 30-35mph).

Temperatures today have been well below forecast, with wind chills still in the 30s for areas along and north of the I-4 corridor as of 2:30pm. Thus, have gone slightly below guidance for temperatures overnight tonight, blending in some of the 10th percentile NBM. This has made for lows forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the normally colder spots, with increasingly onshore winds keeping areas to the south in the mid to upper 40s.
Lighter winds will help to moderate wind chill values. However, wind chills in the 30s are still forecast for most of the area, with the exception of the Space and Treasure Coasts.

Friday-Saturday (modified previous)...One more wave of colder air looks to be on the way before we start to "thaw" out. Clouds are forecast to slowly scour out on Friday as high pressure drifts toward the area. Well- below-normal high temps are forecast on Friday (50s). Guidance continues to trend colder on Saturday morning. We stayed just above statistical guidance yet again, but that is not much of a consolation. Widespread low/mid 30s are forecast over the interior and all of Volusia County, moderating slightly into the upper 30s to mid 40s along the coast from Melbourne southward. Areas of frost have been included over a large chunk of the district.

These may be the coldest temps of the season and sensitive vegetation will likely need some protection. In fact, there are increasing chances for a light freeze generally north of Orlando.
Still feel there is some chance for these readings to increase a bit in subsequent forecasts, particularly considering winds are not forecast to completely relax. Unfortunately, this would result in wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s for many locales.
Saturday looks bright and chilly with temps still 8-10 degrees below normal.

Sunday-Wednesday (previous)...From late this weekend through midweek, at least medium confidence remains in our forecast.
21/12Z cluster analysis shows a classic Rex Block developing along the West Coast as the Polar Vortex remains close to Hudson Bay.
The anomalous cold air entrenched over much of the nation is projected to erode, especially over the Southeast. Polar jet disturbances should remain much farther north, limiting cold frontal passages through next Wednesday (1/29) or Thursday (1/30).

This pattern change may have some staying power, at least over Florida, into the first days of February. The MJO is expected to swing from phase 3 into 4 or the null phase. NAO/AO blocking appears non-existent, and the EPO is forecast to become positive, an indication that milder Pacific air should enter the U.S. Deeper into early February, long-range modeling looks very similar to La Nina analogs. The CPC two-week outlook slightly favors above-normal temperatures over Florida. Quiet weather is forecast as any significant weather makers hold to our northwest. After one last cold morning on Sunday (upper 30s north of Orlando), statistical guidance supports seasonable temperatures through midweek.

MARINE
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Gale-force wind gusts have diminished in frequency and the Gale Warning will be replaced by Small Craft Advisories at 4PM.
Regardless, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions continue.
Northerly winds will take on a northeasterly component overnight, but remain around 15 to 20kts through this evening, before becoming 10-15kts tonight. North to northwesterly winds will then return to 15-20kts Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Seas up to 8 to 12 feet are forecast to become 6-8ft by Thursday night.
Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through Thursday night.

Low pressure developing near the Bahamas will keep boating conditions poor to hazardous through late week, before improving into the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1257 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Overcast stratus deck blankets the entire FL peninsula this afternoon, with IFR ceilings at nearly all terminals. A band of light to moderate showers that impacted the area over the last 24 hours has shifted south and offshore, leaving only light returns from VRB to SUA. A surge of northerly winds has brought gusts over 30 knots to coastal sites this afternoon, but should return to 20-25 knots by 21-22Z. Winds will remain brisk through the TAF period, with gusts 15-20 knots again tomorrow. Little break in the BKN/OVC deck, with IFR persisting through 18Z tomorrow. Showers will return with highest confidence at the coast after 12-14Z.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 151 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Friday... RH minima fall to 40-45% by afternoon northwest of I-4, amid northwest winds of 5-15 mph. Otherwise, RH values remain above critical thresholds each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 42 52 36 54 / 10 50 20 0 MCO 43 51 39 54 / 10 50 20 0 MLB 48 57 41 57 / 30 60 30 10 VRB 51 61 46 60 / 30 60 30 10 LEE 38 49 34 54 / 10 30 10 0 SFB 42 51 37 55 / 10 50 20 0 ORL 43 51 37 55 / 10 50 20 0 FPR 49 61 45 59 / 30 60 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ570-572-575.