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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 302 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 302 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis.. The predominantly sw winds are now turning to the nw as a frontal boundary pushes south. As a secondary front pushes through tomorrow, winds look to increase, pushing seas higher as well. This could lead to hazardous seas for small craft beginning on Wednesday and lasting into Thursday before conditions start to improve again.

FXUS62 KTBW 042000 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A trough axis and surface low are propagating through the Ohio River valley as the subtropical jet continues to remain across the FL peninsula. The first of two expected over the next 24 to 30 hours, a cold front is sweeping south through the Central FL peninsula in response to a weakening system moving off the Mid-Atlantic region.
Based on the latest surface obs and associated cloud features, it looks like the boundary may already be getting into extreme SWFL, with winds now turning to a NW direction elsewhere.

While this boundary kicks off the cooler and drier weather, the initial change is minor. It shouldn't feel quite as warm or humid, but not dramatically different. The main push happens tomorrow when a secondary front arrives. This one actually brings in the cooler and drier airmass to settle in later tomorrow and into Wednesday. Daytime highs drop into the 60s and 70s for Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows into the 30s and 40s by Thursday morning, the coldest day of the week. While not really being explicitly forecast yet, there is a possibility of freezing temperatures across sections of the Nature Coast Thursday morning as well. Probabilities continue to hover in the 25 to 50% range across the Nature Coast. We shouldn't see those freezing temps make it any farther south, though.

As the work week draws to a close, the atmosphere begins to modify again as the flow eventually veers to an E then ESE direction towards the weekend. As this happens, warmer and more humid air returns and the instability increases. As of right now, it looks like Sunday could potentially be a fairly stormy day with the added warm humid airmass increasing instability ahead of the next frontal feature.

Models are depicting significant upper-level amplification with a deep trough forecast over the Midwest on Sunday, but with some discrepancies. If some version of this feature does indeed evolve, a strong frontal boundary could be in trail, aiding in additional stormy weather across our region as the weekend draws to a close.
Regardless, once the front pushes through we will return to a place not unlike where find ourselves now: a cooler, drier airmass will filter in with clearing skies and overall quieter weather conditions once more.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

No major aviation concerns as a surface front pushes through SWFL.
Over the next 24 hours or so, skies should begin to clear, with no major hazards undissipated until the weekend.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The predominantly SW winds are now turning to the NW as a frontal boundary pushes south. As a secondary front pushes through tomorrow, winds look to increase, pushing seas higher as well. This could lead to hazardous seas for small craft beginning on Wednesday and lasting into Thursday before conditions start to improve again.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A slightly cooler and drier airmass is filtering into the area behind a weak front. A stronger push of this cooler and drier air is expected tomorrow, favoring the lowest values for Wednesday. Some gustier winds and higher dispersions are possible as well behind this second front for Wednesday. Even so, no red flag conditions are expected with RH values forecast to remain above red flag criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 74 58 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 61 79 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 56 75 52 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 61 76 59 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 52 74 49 65 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 63 72 60 65 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Anclote Key
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Mon -- 03:04 AM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:45 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:09 PM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anclote Key, southern end, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Mon -- 01:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:08 AM EST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:00 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:43 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:21 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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