Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melbourne, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Another (finally) pleasant day across East Central Florida. Aloft the sharp trough comprised of two mid- level lows over the eastern seaboard "consolidates" into a single are of low pressure centered just off the Mid-Atlantic, as the feature begins to depart into the North Atlantic in response to strengthening of the ridge over the Central US. At the surface the low pressure(s) system along the Atlantic seaboard associated with the trough has become very elongated and messy, and at least for now has shed the stationary front to our south extending from the Straits of Florida to the Bahamas. A plume of low-level moisture associated with the nearest low pressure center has swung through without much fanfare other than allowing light winds to shift onshore this afternoon, giving way for drier air to continue filtering in from the north as weak high pressure builds from the Gulf. We'll see mostly sunny skies with zero rain chances.
Temperatures a few degrees below normal as afternoon highs top out in the L-M80s and lows drop down into the L-M60s inland and M-U60s along the coast.

The continued caveat is poor to hazardous beach conditions, where a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues despite surf appearing to look more inviting, and many parts of the beach remain unsafe due to coastal flood and erosion impacts. Residents and visitors are encouraged to avoid impacted areas and to stay out of the water altogether.

Along the Saint Johns River, Astor is forecast to remain in moderate flood stage through the week. Farther upstream, points at DeLand, Sanford, and Geneva remain in action stage, and Cocoa may reach action stage.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The mid-upper level ridge over the Central US begins to amplify between deep upper troughs and associated mid- level lows over the western US and western Atlantic, shifting gradually east in the process. Surface high pressure over the North Central US/South Central Canada deepens and shifts east along the with ridge. Locally we remain mainly under the influence of weak high pressure over the Gulf and Florida, but will see the pressure gradient tighten a bit Wednesday between the departing surface low in the western Atlantic and the approaching surface high, causing northerly winds to tick up a bit from 5-10 mph Tuesday to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast Wednesday. Very dry air with PWATs generally less than 1" Tuesday will make for very pleasant conditions with clear skies and no rain chances, but on Wednesday a bit of low-level moisture advects across Florida, which combined with the slight up tick in winds, could support some low-topped showers (20% chance) and an increased cu- field. Temperatures remain a bit below normal with afternoon highs in the L-M80s, maybe upper 70s along the Volusia coast Tuesday, and overnight lows in the 60s, getting close to the L70s along the Treasure Coast early Thursday morning.

The risk for rip currents will continue, worsening again from Wednesday onward as longer period swells arrive at the coast.

Thursday-Sunday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Winds gain more of an easterly component on Thursday as another push of low-level moisture arrives during the day. Additionally, a reinforcing cold front is set to move through during the day. For now, areas closer to the coast and south of Cape Canaveral have the best chance to experience more isolated shower activity. Less cloud cover is anticipated farther inland, allowing temps to climb closer to the mid 80s. A shower or two may linger along the southern Treasure Coast Thursday night/early Friday before drier conditions largely return Friday into the weekend. Model discrepancies become apparent after the H5 ridge axis moves overhead Friday into Saturday, with guidance developing a trough over the central CONUS. The speed and expanse of this trough becomes a bigger question from Sunday onward. Uncertainty also exists regarding a mid level impulse over the Florida Keys on Sunday. Drier air over central Florida should keep deeper moisture focused over south Florida, but this is just another feature to monitor through the week.

All in all, expect a lot of dry time with temperatures ranging from the low/mid 80s each day to the 60s each night. Life- threatening rip currents will remain at area beaches through at least late week.

MARINE
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Boating conditions have improved in the nearshore Central Florida Atlantic waters, with seas 3-5 ft, but remain poor in portions of the Gulf Stream due to lingering 6 ft seas. Seas briefly settle to 3-5 ft across the waters Tuesday with northerly winds 10-15 kts as we remain under the influence of weak high pressure over the Gulf extending to the local waters, while a broad low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard finally pushes out to sea.
Reinforcing high pressure builds into the eastern US mid to late week, preceded by a dry cold front reaching the area late in the week. Winds could briefly increase to around 20 kts as the pressure gradient tightens between the reinforcing high and departing low, particularly on Thursday, but the greatest impact will be long period swell from the low building seas to 5-9 ft again Wednesday through late week. Mostly dry conditions, but a few bands of low- level moisture could support isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR/SKC through the overnight hours, with a few CU around 060 Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight become N/NNE after sunrise and increase to up to 8-12 kts, highest along the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 82 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 65 85 65 83 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 68 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 20 VRB 67 83 68 83 / 0 10 0 20 LEE 63 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 64 84 65 82 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 65 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 66 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.