Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melbourne, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Current-Tonight... Despite persistent early morning cloud cover, isolated to scattered storms have been able to develop from Kissimmee to Cape Canaveral northward early this afternoon. Some uncertainty exists in how convection will evolve through the remainder of the day. A sea breeze is seen developing from Cape Canaveral southward. Should this continue to develop further north, CAMs would suggest increased shower and storm activity along the Volusia and Brevard I-95 corridor before or around sunset.
However, cloud cover and early convection may hinder the development of a healthy sea breeze that CAMs may suggest. Perhaps the better chance for storms could shift slightly further south of Cape Canaveral, focused along the southern Brevard and Indian River Coast where better surface heating has occurred. However, uncertainty even exists in this scenario as the cu field may suggest less favorable environment there. Despite the tricky forecast, have carried isolated to scattered rain chances across much of east central Florida through the afternoon and evening.
Should a forcing mechanism spark a period of more organized convection, environmental parameters could allow for isolated strong storms. Increasing southwesterly mid level flow highlights strong convective wind gusts being the primary threat. This morning's XMR sounding has shown temperatures aloft (500mb) at -10.1C, and small hail cannot be ruled out in the most robust storm. Any storm threat should diminish from west to east through late afternoon and into the evening, generally wrapping up along the coast around 7-8pm.

Tonight, focus shifts to a strong cold front which will pass central Florida. While most locations are forecast to remain dry overnight, only a slight chance of showers will exist as the front passes.
Cooler air begins to spread near, north, and west of I-4 early tomorrow morning with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Farther south, morning lows hold in the 60s.

Monday-Tuesday... Northerly winds increase to 10-15 mph behind the cold front, and a much colder, drier airmass is advected across central Florida. A temperature gradient will become apparent Monday afternoon as cool air filters southward. Highs are held to the mid 60s near and north of I-4, spreading the upper 60s to mid 70s further south. The coldest temperatures settle in Tuesday morning with lows in the 30s across much of central Florida. A north breeze will persist, and wind chill values are forecast to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s. As a result, Cold Weather Advisories will need to be considered for at least portions of the area early Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday mostly range the mid to upper 50s with areas along the Treasure coast reaching the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday-Saturday... Another cold morning is forecast Wednesday with most areas seeing lows in the 40s. Areas of Lake and interior Volusia counties look to be the coldest, reaching the mid to upper 30s. Winds diminish as high pressure builds across the region, and patchy frost could be possible in vicinity of Lake George and the Ocala National Forest Wednesday morning. A warming trend is then expected into late week, and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday climb into the upper 70s to low 80s by the weekend. A very dry airmass will persist through late week with no mentionable rain chances in the extended period.

MARINE
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Offshore moving showers and storms will continue this afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches the local waters. Isolated stronger storms which develop will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts or greater and small hail. Local marine conditions deteriorate Monday behind the front as winds increase to 20-25 kts. A further surge of northerly winds is then forecast into Monday night, increasing to 25-30 kts. Seas build 6-8 ft across the Gulf Stream Monday, peaking Tuesday morning around 6-9 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft offshore. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late tonight for offshore Brevard (0-20nm) and all legs of the Volusia waters (0- 60nm). Advisories then expand southward to cover all local waters of east central Florida early Monday morning. Winds and seas quickly recover and become favorable Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 626 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered rain and few storms persist this evening along the Space Coast, though coverage is diminishing. Guidance persists with a small chance of convection for MLB to SUA over the next couple hours, so a low confidence VCTS remains for that possibility.
Strong cold front passes through overnight with thin band of showers possible along it. Frontal timing at MCO appears to be around 07-09Z. Low-medium probabilities for some MVFR CIGs just on and ahead of the front but for now will monitor trends. Winds turn WNW to NW with gusts to 25 KT on Monday behind FROPA.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

North winds increase to around 10-15 mph Monday behind a strong cold front. This will bring a much drier airmass to central Florida early this week. Fire sensitive conditions are forecast on Monday with near critical fire weather concerns increasing Tuesday as gusty winds continue and minRH values fall between 25-35% across the interior. Building high pressure will ease winds into mid week while RH values remain sensitive.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 64 37 56 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 60 67 37 57 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 62 72 40 60 / 30 0 0 0 VRB 64 74 42 62 / 30 10 0 0 LEE 54 63 34 57 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 58 65 36 57 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 59 65 37 56 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 65 75 42 62 / 30 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575.