Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melbourne, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 124 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Rest of Today-Friday...Weak surface ridging over the eastern US moves seaward through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, mid and upper level troughs/shortwave energy will pass eastward over the Florida peninsula. A look at KMLB radar imagery this afternoon shows a complex of showers over southwest Florida. However, changing to the KTBW radar shows that showers are not quite as stout as what KMLB would suggest (which is scanning at a higher elevation). Combined with the VERY dry air in the mid-levels sampled by both the XMR and TBW soundings earlier today, this leads to higher confidence that much of this shower activity is actually virga. A look at ground observations on the west coast proves this to be mostly true. However, there are a few locations where enough virga has moistened the mid-levels enough to allow a few hundredths of rainfall to reach the surface.

All that to say, a few showers will remain possible across southern portions of the forecast area (generally south of Melbourne) this afternoon (PoPs 20%). Although, the radar is likely a bit misleading in coverage. Regardless, a few lower-level showers continue to slowly move onshore along the Treasure Coast.
This area has the highest chance for seeing any actual accumulations. Models, of course, have not been handling nor initializing with the ongoing virga. However, a few to scattered showers will remain possible along the coast south of Melbourne overnight tonight, pushed onshore by easterly winds. Overnight lows in the 60s.

Friday, deeper moisture (PWATs up to near 1.8") look to build farther northward into east central Florida. With support aloft, isolated to scattered showers remain forecast, generally south and east of I-4. Overnight and early morning onshore-moving showers will remain increasingly offshore into the afternoon, as steering flow becomes progressively more southwesterly, despite continued light southeast winds at the surface. Modest forecast CAPE values will limit the overall lightning threat. However, a few lightning storms will be possible, mainly over the Gulf Stream waters. Humid conditions are expected, with highs in the lower 80s. PoPs are forecast to diminish over land areas by Friday night, with lows in the 60s.

Saturday-Sunday...Light southwesterly flow develops Saturday, as east central Florida is placed between a ridge over the Atlantic and developing low pressure over the central US. Deeper moisture from Friday looks to diminish Saturday, as PWATs dip closer to 1.5". Near zonal flow aloft will also limit upper level support compared to the day before. Thus, PoPs fall below 15% for Saturday. By Sunday, west-southwest winds increase to 5-10 mph, as a deep upper level trough digs through the central US. A few showers appear in the forecast once again, with enough moisture and a possible pre-frontal trough. PoPs 15-20% area-wide, though most locations will likely remain dry. The main appreciable weather will be above average temperatures. Highs this weekend are expected to reach the mid to even upper 80s, where average highs for early November are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s Saturday night will begin to cool down Sunday night, as a strong cold front moves through the local area.

Sunday Night-Thursday...The deep upper level trough will drag a strong surface cold front through the Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning. This initial front is then expected to be followed by a second, reinforcing front into Monday night.
These fronts are expected to be mostly dry as they pass through.
Then, much drier air advecting in behind the boundaries will keep rain chances out of the forecast through at least late week.
Breezy northerly winds of 10-15 mph begin Sunday night and continue through Tuesday, before high pressure builds in over the peninsula mid-week.

Temperatures will be the most noticeable change early next week, as a flip from above normal to well below normal is expected. High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are forecast along and north of the I-4 corridor Monday. Then, 60s look to prevail area-wide Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be well below normal, falling into the 40s for much of the area, with the exception of the immediate Treasure Coast, which looks to remain in the 50s.
Northern portions of Lake and Volusia Counties are forecast to fall into the upper 30s. Elevated winds in the overnight hours will contribute to a wind chill. Currently, wind chill values are forecast in the 30s for most of the forecast area Monday night (the coldest night of the week). Lighter winds overnight Tuesday night will help ease the chill slightly, though wind chills in the upper 30s to lower 40s remain forecast for interior locations and the Volusia County coast. As high pressure moves into the area mid to late week, temperatures are expected to begin a warming trend, though highs and lows will remain below normal.

MARINE
Issued at 124 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions will persist through much of the weekend, as high pressure prevails over the local waters.
Southeast winds today will veer generally west to southwest through Sunday, with a weak afternoon sea breeze at the coast backing winds onshore each day. Regardless, winds look to remain around 10 kts or less through Sunday morning, with seas 2-4 ft.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible through Friday, then again on Sunday. Isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

Two approaching, strong cold fronts are forecast to pass through the local Atlantic waters early next week. Westerly winds will begin to increase Sunday night, becoming 20-30 kts from the north-northwest by Monday morning. These winds look to continue through Monday night before diminishing to 20-25 kts by Tuesday afternoon. Seas will respond, building to up to 8-12 ft, with the highest wave heights in the Gulf Stream. Needless to say, boating conditions are expected to be quite hazardous to begin the work week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Light onshore flow is producing brief, very isolated showers near KVRB-KSUA which will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Precip from elevated showers pushing onshore the SWFL coast and traversing portions of Central Florida this afternoon has been struggling to reach the ground due to a very dry 050-100 (or so)
layer, but have seen some accumulations on the ground under the band of stronger radar echoes extending ENE inland from near KSRQ.
This activity will make a close pass to KMCO-KTIX but held off mention in the TAFs for now. Activity should reach KMLB-KSUA around 21Z or so. At worst some MVFR VIS reductions are possible, but light rain should generally remain VFR. Rain chances for these terminals continue through the night due to a surge of onshore moving low-level moisture, which could also produce some MVFR CIGs after 06Z. Expect this could field to overspread the ECFL terminals, reaching KDAB around 09Z, and KMCO and area terminals around 12Z. Low chances for onshore moving showers through the day Friday at the coastal terminals. Rounds of elevated light showers expected to continue through the day Friday in very nearly the same corridor as today. Winds NE less than 12 kts become light and variable overnight and into Friday until a weak ECSB develops in the late afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 80 64 83 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 66 83 65 86 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 69 80 67 84 / 20 30 10 10 VRB 68 81 67 85 / 30 30 10 10 LEE 62 83 64 85 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 64 83 65 86 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 66 83 66 86 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 69 82 67 85 / 30 30 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.