Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:31 AM   Moonset 12:46 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 1008 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1008 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Multiple rounds of Thunderstorms will impact the waters today as a slow moving cold front approaches the area. Primary concerns will be strong winds, isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds will also increase ahead of these lines calling for small craft should exercise caution headlines for most areas.

FXUS62 KTBW 141728 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 128 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 925 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A narrow line of storms is moving across north FL and portions of the Nature Coast, which has fortunately remained sub-severe this morning so far despite the favorable dynamics in place as well as moderate instability. Meanwhile, there is a larger cluster of storms offshore that has been moving ENE across the Gulf waters and recent satellite imagery shows cloud tops colder than -60C associated with this activity. Thus, this next wave of convection offshore may pose another severe risk but there remains uncertainty with how this cluster holds together as it gets closer to the coast. Given the favorable environment in place, will maintain the ongoing tornado watch for our northern counties and adjacent nearshore waters but will continue to keep a close watch on the convection offshore as it continues to approach our area.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An active weather pattern continues as multiple rounds of showers and storms move through the area. Another MCS will slide across the northern Gulf and will likely be impacting our northern waters by morning. Current models are keeping the bulk of the convection with this round of storms mainly north of I4. However with the current dynamic setup, some storms could be severe with hail, damaging winds and a possible tornado. SPC currently has areas south to Sarasota county in a slight risk with the remaining areas of the CWA in a marginal risk.

Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough continues to move across the Mississippi valley. The cold front associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Once again with increased instability, 500mb temps around -9/-10C, and a strong westerly flow, severe storms could be possible. Thus SPC, has placed the middle of the peninsula in a marginal risk. Primary threats will be hail and damaging winds.

Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week, enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the area bringing another round of convection. Hopefully with the multiple rounds of rain and storms, everyone's grass will once again be green.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the day as the line of storms that moved through the region earlier has moved east of the area, though occasional MVFR patchy CIGs will be possible at times. In addition, another round of thunderstorms offshore in the Gulf may approach the area by this evening with additional restrictions possible, but forecast confidence is not high in whether this holds together. Otherwise, a cold front will slowly push southward across the area overnight into Wednesday and this feature with scattered/numerous showers and storms developing once again so flight conditions are expected to deteriorate towards the end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact waters this morning. Primary concerns will be strong winds, isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds will also increase ahead of these lines calling for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines for most areas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An increase in moisture has helped RH values remain above critical levels for most areas, however they could dip down for areas that are left out of the rainfall. Several rounds of showers/thunderstorms expected through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 87 77 89 / 50 90 20 20 FMY 78 92 78 92 / 10 50 40 30 GIF 75 90 74 93 / 40 70 20 20 SRQ 78 89 76 89 / 40 70 40 20 BKV 72 87 68 90 / 60 80 10 10 SPG 80 86 78 87 / 50 90 30 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Tarpon Springs
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Tue -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:57 AM EDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tarpon Springs, Anclote River, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:33 AM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.10 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:04 PM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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Tampa Bay Area, FL,