Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Key Vista, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Areas of low ceilings and fog will develop through the early morning hours across west central Florida. The fog may be locally dense. The fog will lift by mid morning. Scattered showers currently located offshore the coast of west central Florida will advect locally onshore around sunrise. High pressure will hold over the region today with continued warm temperatures and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Big changes coming over the next 24 to 36 hours as the U/L pattern continues to amplify with a deep trough being carved out from Hudson Bay to the northern Gulf coast. A cold Canadian airmass is diving through the plains and Missouri Valley behind a strong cold front ATTM. The cold front will push across the Florida peninsula tonight and early Monday with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm ahead of the front, although significant dry air aloft over the region will act to inhibit convection.

High pressure will build over the forecast area in the wake of the front on Monday with clearing skies and gusty northwest winds advecting much colder drier air across the region. Temperatures on Monday will likely hold steady or fall slowly through the day.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s north
mid to upper 60s central
and the lower to mid 70s south.
As the cold air rides over the warm waters of the Gulf, a large area of strato-cu will likely develop over the eastern Gulf and may advect locally onshore. Can't rule out an isolated sprinkle or light shower, primarily over the coastal waters.

Potential hazards with this airmass will be a medium to high probability of freezing temperatures Monday night across portions of the nature coast...a wind chill advisory will likely be needed Monday night and early Tuesday morning across all of west central and southwest Florida...a high probability for strong rip currents along area beaches Monday and Tuesday...a medium risk for a high surf advisory Monday and Tuesday...a high probability for a small craft advisory Monday into Tuesday for all of the coastal waters of west central and southwest Florida...and a red flag warning may be needed Tuesday for portions of the region if winds remain sustained above 15 MPH, as relative humidity values are expected to drop to critical levels across the entire forecast area.

Monday night will be clear and cold with overnight lows around 30 to the lower 30s north
mid to upper 30s central
and lower 40s south. Temperatures will be a bit warmer along the immediate coast. North winds will persist which will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the mid 20s north...upper 20s to lower 30s central...and the mid 30s south. Potential that temps across northern areas could be a category colder if the center of the surface high sinks a bit further south allowing winds to collapse which would enhance radiational cooling.

The surface high will hold over the region on Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s north, the upper 50s to lower 60s central, and the lower to mid 60s south under sunny skies.
This equates the daily average temperature to be about 15 to 20 degrees below climatic normals. Another cold night on tap Tuesday night with lows in the mid 30s north... upper 30s to lower 40s central...and the mid to upper 40s south. Caveat will be that winds will be relatively light Tuesday night so wind chill readings are not expected to be much different from the actual temperatures.

Temperatures will begin to modify mid and late week as an U/L ridge builds back over the region as the U/L trough lifts away from the region. Dry conditions will prevail under mostly sunny skies each day.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will develop over the next few hours across portions of west central Florida and may impact terminals during the late night/early morning hours. Terminals most likely to be impacted will be TPA/LAL/PIE/SRQ/PGD. Main impacts will be MVFR VSBYs and IFR CIGs . However, patchy dense fog will also develop with LCL IFR VSBYs. Fog/Ceilings will lift during the morning hours with SCT LCL BKN030-035 developing the remainder of the day with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region, which will create LCL MVFR CIGs /VSBYs vcnty all terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Gradient will remain weak today with southwest winds below cautionary levels. A strong cold front will push across the waters tonight and Monday with winds shifting to the northwest and increasing to SCA levels across all of the waters with hazardous boating conditions developing. Winds and seas will gradually subside Tuesday afternoon. Benign conditions are expected on the waters the remainder of the week as high pressure will hold over the region.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected today as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Fire weather hazards will likely increase early next week behind a cold front as much drier air will advect over the region on gusty north to northwest winds. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop below critical levels on Tuesday, with winds marginally around 15 MPH during the morning, but should be weakening during the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 61 67 39 / 30 10 0 0 FMY 86 69 74 41 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 85 61 68 36 / 30 20 0 0 SRQ 82 62 70 41 / 20 10 0 0 BKV 82 53 62 30 / 40 10 0 0 SPG 80 62 66 44 / 30 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.