Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Patrick Shores, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Today-Tonight...Showers and a few storms are ongoing this morning, particularly from Kissimmee and Melbourne southward, supported by a 500mb shortwave moving overhead. The more organized activity has produced an estimated 1-3" per hour rainfall rates, and recent MRMS QPE shows a couple swaths of 0.50-1.50" over the southern half of the area. At times, occasional to frequent lightning has occurred, but most of the storms appear to be elevated for now (not much in the way of surface gusts).

CAMs are only now catching up to current radar observations, showing a persistent batch of moderate to heavy showers moving across the southern half of east central Florida through 8 AM. A few embedded storms are possible as well, though the severe threat should remain very low. A cold front is forecast to slowly move south across east central Florida today. It is ahead of this front, mainly from Osceola and southern Brevard counties southward, that additional convection is anticipated from late morning into the afternoon. Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast counties have the highest chance at seeing storms this afternoon and early in the evening (NBM Prob Thunder ~30%), and one or two could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and hail would be the main threats, and per usual, any sea breeze/storm interactions will be monitored for brief rotation. Most activity will dissipate prior to or around midnight as drier air filters south behind the front.

Temperatures this afternoon will range widely from the upper 60s in Volusia County to the low 80s around Lake Okeechobee. This separation in temps is due to the cold front moving through northern locations first, veering winds out of the north. Lows tonight into Sunday morning will end up several degrees colder compared to this morning, falling into the mid and upper 50s (except for the low/mid 60s around Lake O and the Treasure Coast).

Sunday-Monday...The passing cold front moves toward south Florida and the Keys on Sunday as high pressure returns to our area.
Surface flow turns northeasterly Sunday, then easterly on Monday with gusts around 20 mph in the afternoon. Model soundings stay rather dry on Sunday for most of the area, so even a lingering 20-30% chance of showers across Martin County may be oversold. Any moisture leftover will be confined to the lowest levels, so the thinking is that most of east central Florida will return to drier conditions Sunday. The story changes a bit on Monday as onshore flow returns, allowing a bit more low-level moisture to support shallow marine showers pushing toward the coast. Still, soundings are rather dry, so coverage of coastal showers should remain low.
Temperatures closer to normal for the beginning of March are forecast Sunday (highs in the 70s) with slightly above normal temps coming back on Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...An expansive surface high will push offshore from the Northeast U.S. on Tuesday moving over the north-central Atlantic by mid week. At the same time, mid/upper ridging builds over the Southeast U.S., remaining in place through much of the week. A slow-moving surface front is progged to approach north Florida Tuesday/Wednesday before dissipating north of our area.
Onshore flow remains persistent through the middle and latter part of the week, aiding in increased moisture return. Models suggest a better chance for coastal showers pushing inland will occur mid to late week. That said, the QPF is very light through Friday (less than 0.10" most places). Breezy to gusty conditions are forecast each afternoon, especially along the coast as the sea breeze forms, with temperatures climbing into the 80s for most by Thursday and Friday. The warmer, mainly dry pattern looks to stick around into next weekend as well.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue today, particularly from Cape Canaveral southward, as a cold front drifts south across the waters. A stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon (gusty winds, lightning, and hail), mainly south of Sebastian Inlet. Behind the front, winds veer northerly, reaching 15 knots over the Volusia waters this afternoon.

High pressure builds overhead Sunday into next week, allowing winds to gradually veer more onshore. Poor to hazardous boating conditions return Monday into Tuesday as persistent easterly winds (15-20 knots with higher gusts) build seas to 6-9 feet by Tuesday afternoon. Seas are forecast to remain 6-7 feet across the Gulf Stream through Wednesday. Onshore-moving showers may increase in coverage from Monday through mid week, pushing farther inland across the Florida Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 531 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Most showers and lightning storms have pushed off the east coast and out into the Atlantic. Isolated showers have pushed in from the west across east central Florida this morning. Widespread MVFR/IFR with some isolated LIFR have filtered across the area.
Model guidance is not in the best agreement with timing/ extent of the low ceiling. So have trended closer to LAMP. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGs will continue for most of the day. Guidance is hinting that VFR conditions will develop in the afternoon for MCO, ISM, and VRB-SUA. While confidence is not high, have decided to introduce VFR conditions briefly in the afternoon for those sites. Lingering showers and isolated lightning storms will continue today. Have maintained VCSH/VCTS through the afternoon for coastal terminals, and through the morning for northern interior sites. Light and variable winds this morning will become N/NE and increase to 10 mph or less by mid morning before becoming light once again tonight.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A cold front over north Florida is forecast to very slowly move south across the area today. Rain chances remain around 30 to 50 percent through early afternoon before additional showers and lightning storms develop from mid afternoon through early evening (particularly Melbourne southward). Storms will be capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and small hail. Lightning could lead to new fire starts.

Light winds gradually veer out of the north behind the passing front this afternoon and evening. Drier air moves in Sunday with only a low chance for showers or an isolated storm over the far southern Treasure Coast. Onshore showers will resume as a breezy east wind returns next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 55 72 55 / 40 10 10 0 MCO 74 58 77 58 / 60 30 10 0 MLB 74 60 75 59 / 60 40 10 10 VRB 78 61 76 60 / 60 50 20 10 LEE 72 55 77 54 / 40 20 10 0 SFB 72 56 76 56 / 50 10 10 0 ORL 74 58 77 57 / 50 20 10 0 FPR 79 60 77 58 / 60 50 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.