Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Patrick Shores, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday... Upper level low pressure system across Maine and New Brunswick area today will continue to shift northeast Saturday as a new low pressure system develops by the Great Plains and moves into the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Surface high pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will build southeast across the Deep South through the period as high pressure across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula.
Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain chances through the period. Dry air will continue to filter across the area through Saturday, with forecast PW values around 0.5" today, increasing to 0.7-1.0" on Saturday. Light and variable winds today will become northeast to east by Saturday morning before veering east to southeast Saturday afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph once again.

Guidance is hinting at patchy fog developing late tonight into early Saturday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly from Orlando south to Lake Okeechobee (staying west of I-95).
Confidence is not high this will occur. However, given the light winds and the high pressure building overhead as well as the HRRR continuing to show it, have maintained patchy fog in those area in the forecast. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year tonight and Saturday. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s across the area today before warming to the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, warming low to mid 50s across the far north to mid 60s across the far south on Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday.
This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county.

The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday.
However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 10- 15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A High Surf advisory may be needed.

Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the period, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. However, there remains a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers across the Atlantic waters each day.
Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

MARINE
Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Today-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today and Saturday. Light and variable winds will turn more easterly this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland.
Winds then shift east to southeast on Saturday with speeds around 10 KT, becoming northwest and increasing to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas will be 2-4ft today, decreasing to 1-3ft on Saturday before increasing to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through Saturday, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms on Sunday.

Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20- 30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and veer E/NE Tuesday at 10-15 KT.
Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Light/VRB winds tonight with VFR conditions forecast. There is some (low) potential for patchy fog development, but with very dry air just above the surface (lessening confidence) we decided to leave mention out of the TAFs and will AMD as needed. Light winds turn easterly on Saturday afternoon, up to around 10 KT at the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 54 77 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 57 76 61 78 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 56 78 61 78 / 0 0 30 30 LEE 50 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 51 77 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 54 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 56 78 61 78 / 0 0 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.