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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 1031 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters rough.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1031 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..
gusty advisory level northerly winds and building seas expected today as high pressure builds over the waters from the north in the wake of the recent cold front. Winds gradually diminish slightly and veer northeast into Tuesday but remain elevated near cautionary levels. Gradient remains in place through much of the week supporting continued cautionary to advisory level e/ne winds with rain chances returning for the latter half of the week as the remnant boundary slowly lifts back north across the waters before uncertainty increases late in the week, however gusty winds and elevated seas along with returning rain chances later in the week remain the main features.

FXUS62 KTBW 111235 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 735 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quieter day on tap to kick off the work week today as high pressure continues building into the state with cooler and drier conditions in the wake of Sunday's cold front. Area temps as of around 5 AM this morning are about 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago, with the greatest differences over the Nature Coast and areas north of I-4. Breezier northerly winds have set up across the area as well and will continue through today with gusty conditions likely this afternoon before tapering off tonight after sunset.
Mostly sunny skies are expected, however, continued cold air advection will limit afternoon highs from around 60 north up to around 70 south, about 10-15 degrees below typical temps for this time of year. With the expected drop off in winds overnight, expect the below normal theme to continue with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s for Nature Coast locations, lower to mid 40s for central locations away from the immediate coast, and upper 40s to around 50 for southern locations including the central and southern immediate coastal vicinities. Patchy frost will be possible across Nature Coast locations particularly where winds drop off the most.

The trailing surface high behind the front then slides east and settles over the E. U.S. on Tuesday with the frontal boundary becoming stationary over the N Caribbean, allowing a warming trend to ensue on Tuesday as winds gradually veer out of the E/NE allowing Atlantic moisture to work across the peninsula, gradually modifying the current cooler drier air mass filtering into the state. Temps return to more average values through the remainder of the period with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Rain-free conditions continue into mid week as zonal W/SW flow remains over the area before impulses embedded within the flow interact with the remnant boundary as it gradually lifts back north into the S gulf during the mid to late week time frame bringing a chance of showers back into the area toward the end of the work week and into the weekend. Similar to previous forecast cycles, uncertainty remains regarding the outlook for the latter part of the forecast period, mainly centered around how guidance handles the evolution of a southern stream disturbance aloft progged to move east into the southern U.S./N Gulf Coast region this weekend. While differences remain in available solutions, overall trend of a wave of low pressure developing along the lingering surface boundary over the central or eastern gulf over the weekend continues, which would most likely push across the peninsula with an uptick in rain chances. For now continue to advertise PoPs mainly in the 30-40 percent range for the late week through weekend period as details become clearer through the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions through the period with gusty winds out of the northwest through the daytime hours.



MARINE
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Gusty advisory level northerly winds and building seas expected today as high pressure builds over the waters from the north in the wake of the recent cold front. Winds gradually diminish slightly and veer northeast into Tuesday but remain elevated near cautionary levels. Gradient remains in place through much of the week supporting continued cautionary to advisory level E/NE winds with rain chances returning for the latter half of the week as the remnant boundary slowly lifts back north across the waters before uncertainty increases late in the week, however gusty winds and elevated seas along with returning rain chances later in the week remain the main features.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure building into the state today will continue to support gusty northerly winds with a cooler and drier air mass filtering into the area. Some areas may approach critical RH values this afternoon for a few hours, however, widespread long duration Red Flag conditions are not currently expected. Winds veer out of the E/NE on Tuesday with moisture recovering as Atlantic moisture works into the area through the remainder of the period. Enhanced E/NE flow with periods of gustiness likely through the week with rain chances returning over the latter half of the week and into the weekend as the potential for unsettled weather increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 47 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 70 51 76 63 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 66 46 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 66 47 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 64 37 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 63 51 69 60 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Gulf Harbors
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Mon -- 05:37 AM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     1.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gulf Harbors, Florida, Tide feet

Anclote Key
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Mon -- 04:39 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:14 AM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:18 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anclote Key, southern end, Florida, Tide feet

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