Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patrick AFB, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Ridge aloft building over the eastern Gulf and Florida shifts eastward, with surface high pressure over the southeast seaboard trailing behind. Onshore flow enhanced by the east coast sea breeze could produce wind gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon, particularly along the coast. A slug of higher low-level moisture (PWATS 1.0-1.2") embedded in the onshore flow is supporting isolated to scattered showers across a good chunk of East Central Florida this afternoon, from parts of the Orlando Metro south to Lake Okeechobee. A few lucky areas where heavier showers (despite the very dry air aloft) or training bands developed have received around 0.25" of rain, and a couple spots over 0.5", but for most 0.1" or less is what can be expected. Have a 20% chance of showers for pretty much all of ECFL except Volusia and adjacent Lake/Seminole counties through the rest of the afternoon, then rain chances shift back offshore/along the coast overnight. Can't completely rule out a rogue lightning strike in the afternoon, but chances are very low (10% or less).
Temperatures topping out on the warm side in the U70s-L80s, warmer inland, then cooling into the U50s-U60s, coolest to the north tonight.

Conditions are somewhat favorable for fog late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the center of the ridge aloft moves overhead and dew points creep up, but whether overnight winds become light enough for development is up in the air. Generally good signal for at least patchy fog along and north of the I-4 corridor, which could become dense and reduce visibility to less than a mile.

Wednesday-Monday...Rinse and repeat. Ridging aloft shifts from over the eastern Gulf and Florida into the nearby west Atlantic waters late Thursday into early Friday, then gradually weakens going into the weekend and early next week as a long wave trough swings across the CONUS. Surface high pressure becomes nearly stationary as it also builds from the southeast seaboard into the nearby Atlantic waters over the Sargasso Sea through the weekend, continuing onshore (easterly to southeasterly) flow as the ridge axis remains north of the area. Enhancement from the east coast sea breeze could again produce some breezy/gusty conditions in the afternoons. Moisture and temperatures will continue to trend upward. Rain chances more limited limited Wednesday, 20% or less, but then pick up to 20-50% Thursday through Saturday with the highest chances well inland as PWATs gradually increase to 1.1-1.4", before settling back to 20% Sunday and Monday. Could see some lightning storms (20% or less chance) in the afternoons Thursday onward. Ensemble mean rainfall amounts through Monday night range from 0.2-0.5", higher to the north, but lucky spots that get deeper convection/repeated rounds could receive locally higher amounts of an inch or more.

Warming trend continues through the weekend, with highs gradually working their way from the U70s-L80s Wednesday to the L-U80s (well above normal) early next week, warmest inland as onshore flow moderates the coast some. A few low hanging inland daily high temperature records could be threatened, but for the most part the forecast falls short of records by 3-5 degrees. Overnight lows in the 60s also well above normal, and flirting with a few low hanging daily record warm lows.

While temperatures may be inviting for the beaches, the persistent onshore flow will cause swell to build, and a high risk of life- threatening rip currents is likely to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Entering the surf is not advised.

MARINE
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

High pressure centered over the Sargasso Sea becomes nearly stationary through the rest of the week, keeping the ridge axis north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, and continuing moderate to fresh onshore flow. Boating conditions in the Gulf Stream remain generally poor from seas 4-6 ft and winds 10-20 kts.
Small craft should exercise caution. Closer to shore, boating conditions more favorable albeit on the choppy side today with winds 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will be embedded in the onshore flow.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 619 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Will continue to monitor the potential for fog development, especially near DAB, SFB, and LEE. At this time, the highest probabilities (40-50%) of IFR conds is at LEE and DAB late tonight. Deep onshore wind flow regime continues through the period. Guidance is handling surges of energy/moisture rather poorly, per usual in this type of pattern. Stretches of VCSH with ocnl MFVR CIGs near showers. NE to E winds 5-10 KT, except up to 15 KT in the late morning-afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 79 62 80 / 10 10 10 20 MCO 65 82 65 84 / 10 10 0 40 MLB 65 79 66 80 / 10 10 10 30 VRB 65 80 66 81 / 10 10 10 30 LEE 62 83 64 85 / 10 10 0 30 SFB 62 82 64 84 / 10 10 0 30 ORL 64 82 65 84 / 10 10 0 30 FPR 65 80 66 81 / 10 10 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.