Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patrick AFB, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Current-Tonight... A cold front is analyzed across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region this afternoon. Cloud cover will continue to build across the region this evening as the front approaches northeast and central Florida. Increasing cloud cover combined with light southerly flow should keep temperatures warmer overnight, with lows in the 50s. Mostly dry through the overnight with isolated showers beginning to approach Lake and Volusia county near sunrise, ahead of the front.

Sunday-Monday... A mid/upper level trough swings across the eastern U.S. and through Florida on Sunday. A cold front advances ahead of the feature aloft as a surface low lifts across the western Atlantic. Models continue to show better agreement in precip chances along and ahead of the front with the best shower chances (50-60%) near, north, and west of I-4. Low instability and a layer of dry air in the low levels should limit any lightning chances.
Southwest winds ahead of the front shift northwest as the front passes late morning and into the afternoon. High res and global guidance has shown a noticeable wind surge along and behind the front with 925mb winds modeled around 35-40 kts. At the surface this could translate to a period of widespread gusts 25-35 mph with occasional gusts up to 50 mph possible. The wind surge is forecast to remain brief, limiting the need for a Wind Advisory at this time. However, a few gusty wind SPS products could be needed by late Sunday morning and into the afternoon. As northerly winds increase, a much colder and drier airmass will be advected across the region. While areas of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast could see highs in the mid to upper 70s with a later frontal passage, areas across Lake and Volusia will be limited to highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s early in the day before temperatures fall through the afternoon. By early Monday morning, lows are forecast in the low to mid 30s across much of east central Florida. A Freeze Watch remains in effect on Monday morning for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties where NBM probabilities suggest moderate to high confidence for temperatures to reach freezing across portions of these counties. Although the Freeze Watch covers all of Orange and Osceola counties, freezing temperatures are less likely (only 10-30%) around major urban areas including Orlando and Kissimmee. Continued north winds will drop wind chill values into the mid to upper 20s for much of east central Florida, and Cold Weather Advisories will likely be considered for Monday morning. The lightest winds are forecast in vicinity of Lake George where areas of frost are forecast.
Otherwise, higher winds (5-10 mph) should keep frost widely patchy. Drier air and building high pressure will keep conditions mostly sunny on Monday, but temperatures are expected to hold below 60 for areas near and north of the Orlando metro. Further south, highs struggle into the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure across the southeast U.S.
shifts offshore into midweek. As the high retreats, a weak inverted surface trough develops offshore the Florida Atlantic coast ahead of a larger frontal boundary sweeping offshore the eastern U.S. coast.
Dry conditions persist through Wednesday with a chance for showers (30-50%) and storms returning to the forecast on Thursday. Low temperatures hold below normal Tuesday (mid30s-mid40s), continuing a warming trend into Wednesday (low40s-low50s). Patchy frost will remain possible for areas north and west of I-4 Tuesday morning.
High temperatures trend into the 70s by Wednesday and into late week.

MARINE
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A short period of favorable boating conditions continues today as high pressure gradually retreats seaward. A strong cold front approaches the area early Sunday morning, passing the local Atlantic waters into the afternoon. Boating conditions rapidly deteriorate behind the front as offshore winds shift north, increasing to 25-30 kts, and a brief period of occasional gale force gusts will be possible. Seas build 6-8 ft into Sunday night. Small Craft Advisories will take effect Sunday at 10AM from Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet, extending to include the Treasure Coast waters at 1PM. North winds subside to 15-20 kts through the evening while hazardous seas linger across the Gulf Stream, gradually improving Monday. A surface trough develops over the waters into mid week, maintaining and extended period of poor conditions. Scattered rain chances are forecast with the front on Sunday, drying behind the front. Scattered to numerous showers return again Thursday into late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 109 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions generally forecast this afternoon through tonight.
HRRR guidance is showing some low end probabilities (less than 30%) for fog development late tonight through early Sunday morning, south of KMLB, from around 8-13Z. However, not enough confidence to carry in the TAFs at this time.

A strong cold front will push through the area tomorrow, producing a relatively brief, but strong NW wind surge as front pushes through. NW winds up to 20-25 knots and gusts up to 35-40 knots may occur initially as this boundary moves through, which for the northern TAF sites looks to occur around 16-17Z, and around 18-20Z (outside of the current TAF forecast window) farther south. These stronger winds again should be short-lived, with winds diminishing into the remainder of the afternoon, but still remaining breezy/gusty. For the NW surge, currently have winds around 20 knots gusting to 28 knots.

Scattered to numerous showers will also accompany the front, with greatest rain chances across to north of KMCO (up to 50-60%). A period of IFR/MVFR cigs will also occur in the afternoon as the boundary moves through.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is forecast to move southward across east central Florida on Sunday, and a dry, cold air mass will settle across the area behind it. This drier air mass is anticipated to result in sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall below 35% on Monday across portions of the interior on Monday afternoon and west of the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. North winds increase to around 10 mph each day, remaining shy of critical thresholds at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 51 63 33 57 / 10 60 0 0 MCO 54 67 35 58 / 0 60 0 0 MLB 55 75 37 61 / 0 30 0 0 VRB 55 77 38 63 / 10 20 0 0 LEE 52 59 31 57 / 20 60 0 0 SFB 53 64 33 58 / 10 60 0 0 ORL 55 65 35 58 / 10 60 0 0 FPR 55 77 38 64 / 10 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ572.