Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patrick AFB, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 930 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

The previous forecast remains on track as temperatures have quickly fallen into the 40s and 50s across much of the area.
Deeper moisture will gradually expand northward overnight, bringing an increase in clouds and light to moderate showers. This evening's 23z XMR sounding indicates quite a bit of dry air in the lowest 300mb, so it will take some time for the atmosphere to support precipitation making it to the surface. Hi-res guidance suggests that measurable rain will increase in coverage from south to north after 3-4 AM. Northerly winds remain breezy at times, especially along the Treasure Coast. An increasing north wind is forecast along the Volusia County coast, closer to sunrise.

Due to the added cloud cover and increase in southerly 850mb flow, temperatures are forecast to remain nearly steady or climb a couple degrees after midnight (especially south). Lows will range from the upper 30s/low 40s north of I-4 to the low to mid 50s from Melbourne southward.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Tonight...The cold front draped just south of the Florida peninsula is forecast lift northward back towards the peninsula tonight, leading to increasing rain chances from the south towards the north after midnight and into early morning. Lightning is not forecast with this activity. Northerly winds are expected to prevail overnight, with considerable cloud coverage present across east central Florida. Cool across the area tonight, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s north of the I-4 corridor, and in the mid 40s to low 50s southwards. Some areas along the Treasure Coast, particularly along the immediate coast, may only fall into the mid 50s tonight.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to remain draped across the Florida peninsula over the next several days, with a couple of low pressure waves forecast to ride along the boundary. As a result, rain chances remain high (60-90%) over the next few days thanks to plentiful moisture present across the area. The Sunshine State also won't quite be living up to its name, with considerably cloudy skies forecast through at least Wednesday as a result of the increased moisture.

Outside of the rainy conditions, winds are forecast to pick up behind the first low pressure wave that transits the area, with the tightening pressure gradient leading to northerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible. The strongest winds will likely be felt along the coast. As a result of the increasing winds, seas are forecast to build across the local Atlantic waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the beaches, conditions may become hazardous, with breaking waves of 4 to 7 feet possible in the surf zone. Entering the surf will not be advised during this time, and the issuance of a High Surf Advisory will likely be needed. Winds are forecast to slowly diminish as the pressure gradient slackens Wednesday night, but will remain out of the north.

Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal for this time of year, with highs in the 50s across much of the interior and along the coast north of the Cape and in the 60s along the coast south of the Cape. Quite the gradient at night, with lows generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s near and north of the I-4 corridor and in the mid 40s to mid 50s south of the I-4 corridor. Wind chill values fall into the low to mid 30s across much of the interior Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, improving to the mid to upper 30s Wednesday night into Thursday morning as winds diminish.

Thursday-Monday (previous modified)...A continued unsettled weather pattern is forecast late week as another weak wave of low pressure rides along the nearby stalled front Thu with scattered showers (PoPs 40-50%), departing Thu night. More significant drying is forecast to overspread the area Fri-Sat with the coldest temps forecast for this week. Widespread 30s is forecast by Sat morning with low-mid 40s immediate coast. Increasing sunshine should allow max temps to finally rise into the 60s across northern sections. As high pressure tracks east into the Atlc off the Carolina coast Sun, local winds will turn onshore and allow a warming trend to take hold. Max temps Sunday in the low to mid 70s, increasing into the low to upper 70s on Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic waters this afternoon into tonight, with northerly winds around 20 knots and seas of 4 to 7 feet persisting. Small Craft Advisories across all legs of the local waters dropping to only the offshore Brevard and Treasure Coast waters after 7 PM, and then ending altogether at 10 PM. Seas fall to 3 to 5 feet as winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots late tonight. A cold front draped across south Florida will drift northward, increasing rain chances locally tonight, with high rain chances persisting over the next several days as a series of low pressure waves move along the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop once again Tuesday evening, as winds increase to 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots possible. Seas are forecast to build to 6 to 9 feet across the nearshore waters and 9 to 12 feet across the offshore waters. An additional Small Craft Advisory has been raised to capture the start of this event, but would not be surprised if temporal extensions are needed beyond 00Z Thursday.
Another low moves across the waters on Thursday, finally dragging the front away from the area, with conditions clearing behind the low. High pressure develops, and seas are forecast to subside on Friday evening below 6 feet.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

MCO IMPACTS: - Occasional MVFR CIGs by around 12Z, prevailing MVFR by 21/16-18Z.
- Approx 50% chance of IFR CIGs between 21/20-22/04Z.
- Periods of showers later today and tonight.

Rather busy TAFs tonight with lowering CIGs from south to north across our terminals through the next 12-18 HR as a weather disturbance arrives. IFR conds forecast to prevail at the coastal terminals from VRB southward by morning and by afternoon/evening closer to DAB. For the Orlando area terminals, CIGs are somewhat more uncertain with 40-50% risk of IFR after 20Z and within heavier showers. Periods of showers arrive overnight, and last through much of the TAF period. Winds remain N to NNE, becoming gusty and turning NNW between 22/00Z-03Z as a cold front slides southward. Few gusts to 30 KT possible tomorrow evening, esp at DAB/TIX.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 41 54 47 / 80 100 80 30 MCO 58 44 52 49 / 90 100 70 30 MLB 64 48 60 52 / 90 90 90 40 VRB 68 53 64 56 / 90 90 90 40 LEE 57 39 50 43 / 70 100 50 20 SFB 59 43 53 47 / 80 100 70 30 ORL 59 43 53 48 / 90 100 70 30 FPR 67 52 63 56 / 80 90 80 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ550-570.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ552-572.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.