Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:41PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 9:45 PM EDT (01:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 350 Pm Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest towards daybreak. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 350 Pm Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Synopsis..A cold front will cross the local waters late tonight through early tomorrow morning, producing hazardous boating conditions tonight and tomorrow. While winds will subside from mid to late week, seas will remain generally poor for small craft operation through late week due to a lingering moderate swell. Conditions could become hazardous this weekend as models suggest very large swells from a distant ocean storm building into the local atlantic.
Gulf stream hazards..West winds increase to 20 to 25 knots by late evening, with occasional gusts to gale force. This will build seas up to 6 to 7 feet overnight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, march 28th. 43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
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location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 311948 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 348 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

. Cold Front Approaching the Area, Scattered Showers and Isolated Storms Possible Overnight . . High Fire Danger Continues This Week .

DISCUSSION. This Afternoon . Earlier low-level stratus this morning has lifted, transitioning into a deck of cumulus across the entire peninsula. A sfc low currently centered over central AL and accompanying cold front will continue an eastward progression, leading to a tightening pressure gradient evidenced in increasingly gusty winds this afternoon. So far today, highest gusts have been observed at interior locations, up to 30-35 mph, with sustained speeds near 20 mph. Deep southwest flow has advected warmer air to the area and inhibited the development of the east coast sea breeze today, thus sending anticipated afternoon highs skyrocketing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Several record high temps are at risk this afternoon, especially for coastal sites where values could easily approach 91- 92 degrees.

Tonight . With scattered cloud cover and sufficient heating this afternoon, the focus shifts to this evening and early tonight as the aforementioned cold front reaches east central FL. Model runs today have continued to favor a line of scattered showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms to reach the northern forecast area soon after sunset, remaining intact through the I-4 corridor through midnight, then becoming broken as the boundary pushes south of Cape Canaveral to the Treasure Coast after midnight. This system will be fast moving, clearing the forecast area prior to daybreak, however, the potential for accompanying severe weather is non-zero at this time. Instability parameters in latest runs look more conducive for isolated tstorm development, and thus have included slight thunder chance mention from 8PM-Midnight for locations along and north of the I-4 corridor. This area is also the most favorable for sub- severe to severe wind gusts, as the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted in a "Marginal Risk". 925 mb winds increase quickly near sunset along with a surge of DCAPE up to 1500-1800 J/kg. Thus the svr wind potential is present, but gusts most likely will peak at 45- 50 mph prior to midnight.

Tomorrow . After the front quickly pushes through to S FL early tomorrow, west to southwest winds will veer northwesterly tomorrow, advecting noticeably cooler and drier air to the region. The streak of record high days will finally come to an end tomorrow, with max temps topping out in the low 70s to the north, mid 70s from Orlando to the Cape and low 80s for the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee. PoPs will return to zero, with significantly drier air limiting cloud cover.

Thursday-Friday . Late week weather looks dry with temps closer to seasonal normals as post-frontal high pressure resides over the area and then offshore by late Friday night. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s along the coast, and low 80s inland marking the beginning of a slow warm trend. Morning lows Thursday and Friday in the mid/upper 50s for most areas, some low 50s for the rural interior.

Saturday-Tuesday . (modified previous discussion) Western Atlantic high pressure ridge will control the local weather pattern in the extended range, as it gradually weakens and its axis drops southward into Florida. Afternoon guidance continues weakening trend in mid level vorticity moving across Florida this weekend, and decrease in available moisture. While the GFS indicates a more robust shortwave, the available moisture is very low with low QPF numbers for the northern areas Sunday afternoon. The only rain chances, around 20 percent, in the extended period are limited to Sunday afternoon along and north of I-4.

Near to slightly above normal temps Saturday will warm back to well above normal by Tuesday, when mid/upper 80s to low 90s are forecast.

AVIATION. Strong SW winds persist at all terminals this afternoon, with sustained speeds near 15-18 kts with gusts as high as 25-30 kts. Winds will only slightly diminish this evening ahead of an approaching cold front and associated line of showers and iso thunderstorms. As of now, confidence in TS is not high enough to include in TAFs, but and chance will favor terminals from KMCO northward. These same locations also have the highest likelihood of SHRA tonight, handled with TEMPO from 01-05Z. The line of showers will push quickly across the area, clearing KSUA by 10Z. Behind the front, winds veer NW, with SKC behind the boundary.

MARINE. Tonight . Tightening pressure gradient and approaching cold front will increase SW/W winds this afternoon and evening up to 20 kts nearshore and 20-25 kts tonight in the offshore waters, with gusts to gale force possible after midnight. As the cold front passes across the local waters tonight, showers and isolated thunderstorms will have the potential to produce gusty winds up to 35 kts after sunset offshore Volusia County, and clearing Jupiter Inlet after 3 am. Initially, seas of 2-4 ft but will quickly build 3-5 ft nearshore and 5-7 ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect soon after sunset tonight.

Tomorrow . Behind the front, winds veer northwest, diminishing only slightly in the afternoon. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft nearshore and building up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. The SCA will taper to just the offshore waters, but small craft should use continued caution in the nearshore.

Thursday-Friday . A potential surge of hazardous seas is becoming more likely on Thursday. Model guidance shows another brief building of swells Thursday into Thursday night, pushing seas up to 5-7 feet nearshore and up to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. Hazardous conditions quickly improve by late Friday morning, though small craft may want to exercise caution. Seas subside to 4-6 feet over the waters under northeast winds around 10 knots by Friday afternoon.

Saturday-Sunday . From late Saturday onward, both the WNAWAVE and NWPS models continue to show a very large swell rebuilding into the local Atlantic (up to 12 feet) starting late Saturday night. This surge is associated with a powerful north Atlantic storm, and there is the potential for a high surf event this weekend, something to watch as the week progresses.

FIRE WEATHER. Minimum RH will remain slightly above critical values today, but drier air behind tonight's cold front passage will allow values to dip below 35% across the interior tomorrow, and 40-45% along the coast. With rainfall chances becoming minimal after tonight, the fire danger will continue to rise through the remainder of the week, as drought conditions worsen. At this time, Wed- Fri look to be the more fire-weather sensitive days. A high fire danger will persist through this week.

CLIMATE. As of 330 PM, both Vero Beach and Ft Pierce have recorded a max temperature of 93 degrees, which not only shatters the daily record high, but also ties the all-time March record high at both sites. With additional heating over the next hour or so, additional records may be broken at other sites.

Site Date Record /Year DAB 3/31 90-1954 LEE 3/31 88-2016 SFB 3/31 92-1970 MCO 3/31 95-1907 MLB 3/31 91-1954 VRB 3/31 90-1975 FPR 3/31 90-1993

March 2020 Stats/Rankings .

With well above normal temperatures ending out the month, it will be the warmest March on record for Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Sanford and Orlando.

As of right now it is the driest March on record for much of the area. However, any additional rainfall before midnight EST (or 1AM EDT) from fast moving isolated to scattered showers that cross the area this evening could change these current rankings slightly. Regardless, this March will still be one of the driest on record.

March 2020 Average Temperature (Through March 30th):

Site: Avg. Temp: Ranking (Top 10):

Daytona Beach 70.8 (+6.4) Warmest (Record: 70.1/1945) Leesburg 73.8 (+8.0) Warmest (Record: 72.3/2012) Sanford 73.4 (+6.9) Warmest (Record: 72.3/2003) Orlando 73.8 (+6.9) Warmest (Record: 73.7/1907) Melbourne 71.0 (+5.1) 7th Warmest Vero Beach 72.3 (+4.9) 4th Warmest Ft. Pierce 71.0 (+3.9) -

March 2020 Total Rainfall (Through March 30th):

Site: Rainfall: Ranking (Top 10):

Daytona Beach 0.02" (-3.82") Driest (Record: 0.08"/2006) Leesburg Trace (-4.04") Driest (Record: 0.04"/2006) Sanford 0.03" (-3.74") 2nd Driest (Record: T/2006) Orlando 0.02" (-3.36") Driest (Record: 0.02"/2006) Melbourne 0.03" (-2.95") Driest (Record: 0.03"/1956) Vero Beach 0.02" (-3.70") Driest (Record: 0.09"/1956) Ft. Pierce 0.02" (-3.31") Driest (Record: 0.19"/1917)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 60 72 52 76 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 62 77 53 80 / 50 0 0 0 MLB 65 75 55 78 / 40 0 0 0 VRB 67 76 55 77 / 40 0 0 0 LEE 59 75 53 80 / 50 0 0 0 SFB 61 75 53 79 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 62 77 55 80 / 50 0 0 0 FPR 67 78 54 78 / 40 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



Smith/Rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi46 min 77°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi46 min SW 13 G 19 80°F 79°F1007.3 hPa (+0.8)
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi26 min SW 18 G 23 79°F 76°F1006.7 hPa69°F
SIPF1 28 mi31 min WSW 12 80°F 78°F1008 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi46 min SSW 13 G 21

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL1 mi2.8 hrsWSW 16 G 2410.00 miFair85°F64°F50%1006.9 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi53 minWSW 1110.00 miFair79°F66°F67%1006.9 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL15 mi50 minWSW 13 G 1910.00 miFair81°F67°F65%1006 hPa
Titusville, FL21 mi58 minWSW 107.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOF

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE11SE12S12S7S11S9SW6W5W3CalmSW4SW4CalmCalmE4E7E8E8SE10SE10SE12SE12SE9--
2 days agoS15SE16SE15S13S8S7SW6S5S5S5SW5SW5SW4--SE10SE10SE11SE14SE14SE12SE14SE12SE11SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:55 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.132.51.91.30.90.70.81.21.82.42.82.92.82.31.71.10.60.30.30.61.21.9

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:06 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:08 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.132.621.510.80.81.21.72.32.72.92.82.41.81.20.70.30.30.51.11.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.