Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patrick AFB, FL
December 1, 2023 9:35 PM EST (02:35 UTC)
Sunrise 6:56AM Sunset 5:27PM Moonrise 9:21PM Moonset 10:52AM
AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 858 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 858 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will shift eastward off of the atlantic seaboard as a low pressure system develops over the deep south. As this low tracks northeast, its associated cold front will approach florida late Sunday, eventually moving south across the local atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will build in behind the front next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, november 30th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will shift eastward off of the atlantic seaboard as a low pressure system develops over the deep south. As this low tracks northeast, its associated cold front will approach florida late Sunday, eventually moving south across the local atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will build in behind the front next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, november 30th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 012025 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 325 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Now-Saturday...High cirrus and low to mid level cumulus continue to filter an abundance of sunshine across east central Florida today. High pressure remains entrenched over much of the state, though a slow migration eastward is noted on RAP analysis.
Temperatures have climbed into the above normal range, reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. GOES-derived PW indicates a moistening of the atmosphere from south to north, which is expected to continue into tomorrow. However, mostly dry conditions should persist for most locations into tonight, with the exception of the Treasure Coast. Model guidance hints at a mentionable chance for showers overnight, as low-topped showers are carried by southeasterly flow from near the Bahamas toward the Florida Peninsula. Some of this activity may expand northward toward Cape Canaveral during the day Saturday as low-level marine flow veers more southerly.
Mid and high level clouds are expected to increase overnight with the potential of some patchy fog development before sunrise, mainly across interior locations (i.e. north of I-4). Further tweaks to the forecast with regard to low clouds and fog potential will likely be needed as confidence increases tonight.
Temperatures Saturday will start out in the mid 60s to low 70s, rising to the low to mid 80s once again in the afternoon.
Additional cloud cover may hinder temps from going much higher, and this is subtly reflected in the forecast...especially north of Orlando.
Sunday... (Modified previous discussion) A mid-level ridge located across Cuba will become flattened during the time period as a trough develops across the central US and gradually sweeps east across the eastern US. At the surface, multiple areas of low pressure are forecast to develop across the central US in association with this trough, with each low sweeping northeastward across the eastern US.
The low that will impact east central Florida the most is forecast to develop close to the Gulf of Mexico and move northeast toward the Carolinas. A warm moist airmass across east central Florida will lead to increasing rain chances into Sunday. PoPs continue to remain in the 20 to 30 percent range, with the highest rain chances occurring north and west of the I-4 corridor Sunday afternoon and early evening. There remains a slight chance for lightning storms in the afternoon and early evening. Current guidance shows the cold front approaching and pushing through east central Florida late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with gradual weakening upon approach and passage.
With the warm, moist airmass being in place on Sunday, temperatures are forecast to be above normal, with humid conditions expected across much of the area. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 80s across the area, which is approximately 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s, except low 60s north of the I-4 corridor.
Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The cold front is forecast to continue to push across east central Florida early Monday, with model guidance continuing to indicate that it will pass as a much weaker feature, generating very little in the way of showers. As a result, PoPs remain limited on Monday, with highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) occurring from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions, with PoP remaining below 20 percent on Monday. An area of high pressure is forecast to develop and strengthen behind the front, with current model disagreement on just how far south the high will push. This will have impacts on exactly where the frontal boundary settles, and dictates just how dry versus moist east central Florida will be behind the front. The Euro extends the high across the Florida peninsula, keeping things relatively dry through the remainder of the week while the GFS keeps the high further north, with some shower chances remaining as the front settles across the peninsula.
In general, stuck with the consensus blend which keeps things on the drier side through this week.
A cooling trend is forecast to occur behind the front, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s on Monday falling into the mid 60s to mid 70s through the remainder of the week. Overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday nights, with lows dipping into the low 40s to mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Northwest winds will gradually veer to out of the northeast through next week, remaining generally between 10 to 15 mph.
MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight-Saturday...Seas nearshore are expected to remain 3-4 ft, with offshore waves 4-5 ft (occasionally 6 ft) tonight, falling to around 4 ft Saturday. South-southeasterly flow gradually veers southwest by Sunday as a cold front approaches the local waters.
An increase in moisture will lead to additional shower and isolated storm development through the weekend and into early next week.
Small craft should exercise caution offshore in the Gulf Stream through the evening.
Sunday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A cold front will approach the local waters on Sunday, with the front sweeping across the waters late Sunday into Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front will lead to isolated to scattered shower development across the local Atlantic waters, with isolated lightning storms possible, on Sunday. Southwest winds Sunday will veer to out of the northwest Monday and north-northeast Tuesday.
Wind speeds generally 10 to 15 knots. Seas forecast to remain between 2 to 4 feet.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
VFR continues with IFR becoming more likely after 06z. High clouds are expected to increase, along with the potential for low stratus or fog before 13z Sat. Trended the TAF in the direction of VIS/CIG reductions, with further adjustments likely in subsequent TAFs.
Winds remain around 10 kt or less thru the period out of the SSE.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Minor Flood stage through at least the middle of next week, while very slowly declining. The Saint Johns River Above Lake Harney is forecast to very slowly fall out of Action Stage this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 82 68 81 / 10 20 20 30 MCO 68 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 69 82 69 84 / 10 20 10 10 VRB 69 85 68 85 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 65 82 68 80 / 10 10 10 30 SFB 67 84 69 82 / 10 10 10 20 ORL 68 84 69 83 / 10 10 10 20 FPR 69 84 68 85 / 20 20 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 325 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Now-Saturday...High cirrus and low to mid level cumulus continue to filter an abundance of sunshine across east central Florida today. High pressure remains entrenched over much of the state, though a slow migration eastward is noted on RAP analysis.
Temperatures have climbed into the above normal range, reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. GOES-derived PW indicates a moistening of the atmosphere from south to north, which is expected to continue into tomorrow. However, mostly dry conditions should persist for most locations into tonight, with the exception of the Treasure Coast. Model guidance hints at a mentionable chance for showers overnight, as low-topped showers are carried by southeasterly flow from near the Bahamas toward the Florida Peninsula. Some of this activity may expand northward toward Cape Canaveral during the day Saturday as low-level marine flow veers more southerly.
Mid and high level clouds are expected to increase overnight with the potential of some patchy fog development before sunrise, mainly across interior locations (i.e. north of I-4). Further tweaks to the forecast with regard to low clouds and fog potential will likely be needed as confidence increases tonight.
Temperatures Saturday will start out in the mid 60s to low 70s, rising to the low to mid 80s once again in the afternoon.
Additional cloud cover may hinder temps from going much higher, and this is subtly reflected in the forecast...especially north of Orlando.
Sunday... (Modified previous discussion) A mid-level ridge located across Cuba will become flattened during the time period as a trough develops across the central US and gradually sweeps east across the eastern US. At the surface, multiple areas of low pressure are forecast to develop across the central US in association with this trough, with each low sweeping northeastward across the eastern US.
The low that will impact east central Florida the most is forecast to develop close to the Gulf of Mexico and move northeast toward the Carolinas. A warm moist airmass across east central Florida will lead to increasing rain chances into Sunday. PoPs continue to remain in the 20 to 30 percent range, with the highest rain chances occurring north and west of the I-4 corridor Sunday afternoon and early evening. There remains a slight chance for lightning storms in the afternoon and early evening. Current guidance shows the cold front approaching and pushing through east central Florida late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with gradual weakening upon approach and passage.
With the warm, moist airmass being in place on Sunday, temperatures are forecast to be above normal, with humid conditions expected across much of the area. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 80s across the area, which is approximately 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s, except low 60s north of the I-4 corridor.
Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The cold front is forecast to continue to push across east central Florida early Monday, with model guidance continuing to indicate that it will pass as a much weaker feature, generating very little in the way of showers. As a result, PoPs remain limited on Monday, with highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) occurring from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions, with PoP remaining below 20 percent on Monday. An area of high pressure is forecast to develop and strengthen behind the front, with current model disagreement on just how far south the high will push. This will have impacts on exactly where the frontal boundary settles, and dictates just how dry versus moist east central Florida will be behind the front. The Euro extends the high across the Florida peninsula, keeping things relatively dry through the remainder of the week while the GFS keeps the high further north, with some shower chances remaining as the front settles across the peninsula.
In general, stuck with the consensus blend which keeps things on the drier side through this week.
A cooling trend is forecast to occur behind the front, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s on Monday falling into the mid 60s to mid 70s through the remainder of the week. Overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday nights, with lows dipping into the low 40s to mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Northwest winds will gradually veer to out of the northeast through next week, remaining generally between 10 to 15 mph.
MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight-Saturday...Seas nearshore are expected to remain 3-4 ft, with offshore waves 4-5 ft (occasionally 6 ft) tonight, falling to around 4 ft Saturday. South-southeasterly flow gradually veers southwest by Sunday as a cold front approaches the local waters.
An increase in moisture will lead to additional shower and isolated storm development through the weekend and into early next week.
Small craft should exercise caution offshore in the Gulf Stream through the evening.
Sunday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A cold front will approach the local waters on Sunday, with the front sweeping across the waters late Sunday into Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front will lead to isolated to scattered shower development across the local Atlantic waters, with isolated lightning storms possible, on Sunday. Southwest winds Sunday will veer to out of the northwest Monday and north-northeast Tuesday.
Wind speeds generally 10 to 15 knots. Seas forecast to remain between 2 to 4 feet.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
VFR continues with IFR becoming more likely after 06z. High clouds are expected to increase, along with the potential for low stratus or fog before 13z Sat. Trended the TAF in the direction of VIS/CIG reductions, with further adjustments likely in subsequent TAFs.
Winds remain around 10 kt or less thru the period out of the SSE.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Minor Flood stage through at least the middle of next week, while very slowly declining. The Saint Johns River Above Lake Harney is forecast to very slowly fall out of Action Stage this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 82 68 81 / 10 20 20 30 MCO 68 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 69 82 69 84 / 10 20 10 10 VRB 69 85 68 85 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 65 82 68 80 / 10 10 10 30 SFB 67 84 69 82 / 10 10 10 20 ORL 68 84 69 83 / 10 10 10 20 FPR 69 84 68 85 / 20 20 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 11 mi | 39 min | 71°F | 3 ft | ||||
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 11 mi | 47 min | SE 1.9G | 72°F | 75°F | 30.08 | ||
| 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL | 28 mi | 35 min | SSE 12G | 78°F | 76°F | 30.11 | 73°F | |
| TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL | 99 mi | 53 min | NNE 2.9G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCOF PATRICK AFB,FL | 1 sm | 40 min | SE 03 | 4 sm | Clear | Mist | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 30.07 |
| KMLB MELBOURNE INTL,FL | 11 sm | 42 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 30.10 | |
| KXMR CAPE CANAVERAL AFS SKID STRIP,FL | 15 sm | 40 min | SSE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 30.07 | |
| KTIX SPACE COAST RGNL,FL | 21 sm | 48 min | SE 03 | 7 sm | Partly Cloudy | 77°F | 72°F | 83% | 30.11 |
Wind History from COF
(wind in knots)Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:50 AM EST 0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:11 AM EST 4.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:52 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST 0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 10:15 PM EST 3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:50 AM EST 0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:11 AM EST 4.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:52 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST 0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 10:15 PM EST 3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 3.1 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 4 |
| 11 am |
| 3.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Canova Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:02 AM EST 0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:22 AM EST 4.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:52 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST 1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 10:26 PM EST 3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:02 AM EST 0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:22 AM EST 4.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:52 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST 1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 10:26 PM EST 3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Canova Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.9 |
| 9 am |
| 3.6 |
| 10 am |
| 4 |
| 11 am |
| 3.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Melbourne, FL,
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