Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Patrick AFB, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 506 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Currently-Tonight...Low pressure east of Florida and north of the Bahamas will push east-northeast through today and tonight, shifting farther away from the area. Extensive cloud cover still exists on the back side of this low across east central FL, with radar composites still showing some areas of drizzle, mainly near to just southeast of I-4. Not expecting much more than trace precip amounts from this activity and this should gradually end through daybreak as drier air works its way southward into central FL.
This drier air will also gradually diminish the cloud cover from northwest to southeast across the area through this morning and afternoon. However, it looks like it may hold on long enough to keep temps above the freezing mark across northern Lake/NW Volusia counties early this morning. Will continue to monitor trends, but may need to cancel this morning's Freeze Warning early. Cold Weather Advisory also continues for Orlando area northward through 9 AM, but cloud cover may also keep wind chills slightly above thresholds as temps are not falling quite as quickly as forecast.

Sunshine will finally enter the forecast again with decreasing clouds today, but Treasure Coast may hold on to cloudier conditions through much of the day. Even with the sunshine, northerly winds will still continue cold air advection across the area, keeping highs well below normal in the mid to upper 50s. It turns even colder into tonight, as clear skies and continuing northerly winds allow low temperatures to fall into the 30s across much of the area, except low to mid 40s along portions of the immediate coast from the Cape southward. Freezing temperatures in the low 30s and widespread frost are likely across Lake and inland Volusia counties and the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning that runs from 2 AM to 8 AM Saturday. Frost development farther south will be more tricky as winds will be a little "stronger" around 7 to 10 mph and dewpoint depressions will be a little greater, but patchy to areas of frost will certainly be possible in more wind sheltered locations across the interior. Wind chill values as low as the mid 20s to mid 30s are forecast for early Saturday morning, and another Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for a larger portion of east central Florida.

Saturday-Sunday...After the colder start to Saturday, highs will still be below normal but not as cold as Friday, as high pressure building into the Southeast U.S. allows low level winds to veer onshore into the weekend. Max temps will reach the 60s, except upper 50s along the Volusia County coast. A gradual warming trend will then continue to take hold through Sunday, with lows Saturday night in the 40s across much of the area, and upper 30s across normally colder locations northwest of I-4. Highs on Sunday will be a little closer to normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s, except low/mid 60s along the Volusia County coast. Lows then fall to the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday night. Conditions will remain dry through the weekend.

Monday-Friday...High pressure settles southward across the region into next week, which will allow a gradual warming trend to continue. Dry conditions also look to generally prevail, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast. Highs will either be near to slightly above normal in the 70s, with overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s potentially holding on north of I-4 on Monday and Tuesday nights.

MARINE
Issued at 506 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Low pressure offshore Florida will continue to produce hazardous boating conditions today into tonight, as it gradually shifts N/NE and farther away from the area. North to northwest winds up to 20-25 knots will continue across the adjacent Atlantic today into tonight, keeping seas up to 7-10 feet today, diminishing to 6-9 feet tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory continues across the entire waters through late tonight, and then persists for the Gulf Stream waters through early afternoon Saturday, as winds veer northeast and diminish but seas remain up to 6-7 feet.

Winds and seas will continue to decrease through late weekend and early next week as high pressure across the southeast U.S. builds farther southward across the area, leading to more favorable boating conditions.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Observations at 05Z showed cloud bases near or just above VFR across the interior and at DAB. MVFR CIGs continue early this morning from TIX southward while IFR lingers at SUA. Cloud bases lift and skies clear from north to south through the period with clear skies forecast into the evening and overnight. North winds remain elevated this morning around 8-12 kts with occasional gusts to 18-20 kts. Gusts become more frequent through the day increasing to 20-25 kts along the coast. Wind gusts diminishing around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 506 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Today...A drier airmass building southward into central FL will lead to diminishing cloud cover from northwest to southeast across the area today, and also produce min RH values as low as the mid 30s to low 40s along and north of the I-4 corridor this afternoon. North to northwest winds will be around 10 mph across the interior and around 15 mph and gusty along the coast in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 35 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 56 35 62 44 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 57 39 64 49 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 59 40 67 51 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 55 33 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 56 34 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 56 36 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 58 40 66 50 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-141-144.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570.