Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayonet Point, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The new work week will begin with much of the same prolonged summer- like pattern that has been in place recently as today will feature above normal temperatures once again with highs reaching the mid/upper 80s this afternoon. One notable change for today, however, compared to the past few days is that rain chances will be quite a bit less despite a weak flow pattern favoring a sea breeze collision in interior areas. This is mainly due to more drier air throughout the column as the region starts to feel a little more influence from ridging aloft in the SW Gulf, though can't completely rule out a few isolated showers and/or a thundestorm mainly across SWFL or southern interior areas. This is where PWATs have the best chance to reach around 1.5" and the west coast sea breeze will not push as far inland compared to areas further north. Thus, have added Slight PoPs to the forecast for this afternoon and evening across this region but overall coverage will be less than recent days.

The aforementioned ridge in the SW Gulf will amplify and build eastward into the middle of the week with Tuesday and Wednesday featuring even warmer conditions as highs reach the 90s for most inland locations and mid to upper 80s for coastal areas. The increasing subsidence associated with the ridge should also keep rain chances below mentionable levels. However, rain chances will be on the increase by Thursday into Thursday night as an upper low tracking across the Southern Plains interacts with a northern stream trough across the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will move into eastern Canada and the associated cold front will sweep across much of the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday night but this frontal boundary will not push through the entire Florida peninsula quite as quickly as the frontal passage through the entire peninsula may delay until sometime on Friday. While upper support will be on a weakening trend as the upper low opens into a trough as it crosses Florida, there will still be enough lift and moisture advection for most areas to at least pick up on some beneficial precipitation on Thursday before drier air filters in by Friday. However, QPF amounts really don't look like anything impressive as both the EPS and GEFS show 0% probabilities for rainfall amounts over an inch across the entire TBW CWA with QPF values more likely to be around a half inch or less with higher totals across the Nature Coast and less for areas further south.
As a result, this system will certainly not provide enough precipitation to bring bring meaningful drought relief to the area but anything will be welcome at this point.

In the wake of the frontal passage later this week, temperatures will lower somewhat compared to the rather warm values that will occur earlier in the week, but most areas may still reach the low/mid 80s on Friday and this is still above normal for this time of the year. Temperatures then start an upward trend once again by next weekend as the high pressure that builds in behind the front shifts off the eastern seaboard and return flow keeps conditions above normal into next weekend, though not quite as warm as earlier this week. The southerly flow will also bring a quick return of deeper moisture into the area with daily shower and storm chances continuing into next weekend.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

LIFR and IFR CIGS this morning will lift in the next hour or so.
After that we will see VFR conditions for the rest of the period with wind generally staying below 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

High pressure across the area will promote light winds less than 10 kts and seas 1 ft or less through mid week. However, areas of fog may develop at times mainly during the overnight and morning hours with highest fog chances mostly across the northern Gulf waters, which could make navigation difficult. Otherwise, winds and seas will start to increase by Thursday as a cold front moves across the Gulf waters with seas possibly reaching 2-4 ft and winds reaching at least exercise cautionary levels or possibly higher. In addition, rain chances will also increase on Thursday as this cold front moves through. The cold front moves away from the region by Friday but breezy northeasterly winds develop in the wake of the frontal boundary.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Very warm and mostly dry conditions will prevail to start off the work week, though isolated showers and possibly a few storms may occur in SWFL and southern interior areas later today along a sea breeze collision. Otherwise, it will remain warm and dry through the middle of the week as high pressure remains in control. The warm and dry weather pattern will also allow minimum RH values to gradually decrease over the coming days with values possibly approaching critical levels by the middle of the week but wind speeds remain well below red flag criteria. Humidity levels will then recover by late week as deeper moisture with better rain chances are expected as a cold front moves through on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 68 88 69 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 88 68 90 67 / 20 20 0 0 GIF 89 67 90 67 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 84 66 86 66 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 87 60 90 61 / 10 0 10 0 SPG 85 69 87 70 / 0 0 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.