Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Buena Vista, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Current-Tonight...Hot & humid with L90s at the immediate coast and M90s (ISOLD U90s) esp into Osceola northward across the interior.
Peak heat indices 102-107F (ISOLD to SCT 108-110F) with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk (ISOLD Extreme) areawide. Have hoisted a Heat Advisory for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Brevard counties for 12pm-7pm today.

Deep moisture continues to surge into ECFL. ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers across the adjacent coastal waters may occasionally push onto the coast (esp Cape southward) this morning before gradually dissipating. Mid-level high pressure ridging will persist across the central FL peninsula with 500 mb temps only - 5.0C to -5.5C with no notable shortwave impulses nearby. Surface heating, moisture, and late day/evening boundary collisions will be the catalysts for diurnal convection later today. Light/variable morning winds will turn onshore as the ECSB pushes inland this afternoon with strongest collisions across the central FL peninsula. Storm steering light/variable (under 5 mph) so erratic movement may take place from stronger collisions and heavy rainfall will be a primary threat due to slow/inconsistent movement of cells. Lightning strikes, and locally gusty winds will also be in play. Will pay close attention in localized torrential downpours as quick 1-3" precip totals (perhaps 4") may occur.
PoPs 20-50% with highest chances likely from near Orlando southward and perhaps only 10-20% for much of Volusia County.
Activity will wind down thru mid-late evening. Warm & muggy overnight with persistent lows in the 70s.

Sun-Sun Night...Deep moisture (PWATs well above 2") take grip across ECFL areawide. A weak pressure gradient continues in place with light W/NW flow. Offshore flow is relatively deep, albeit light, and expect the ECSB to develop but it could be delayed with minimal movement inland during the afternoon. Greatest boundary collisions will be across the eastern peninsula late on this day with NWRLY steering flow 10-15 mph which will take activity to the coast and across the local coastal waters. Have capped PoPs at 70% areawide and the Weather Prediction Center has placed all of ECFL in a Marginal (5-14%) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Heavy rainfall (2-4" locally) with localized minor/nuisance flooding will be a main impact from NMRS lightning storms. Lightning strikes and gusty winds 40-55 mph locally will also be possible. Embedded shortwave impulses in the 500 mb flow aloft will aid convection as mid-level ridging breaks down. 500 mb temps forecast -5.5C to -6.0C.

Max temps will be in the L-M90s with peak heat indices approaching 102-107F ahead of any sea breezes or precipitation. Will continue to monitor for Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F). Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk (ISOLD Extreme) conditions will continue to impact those without adequate cooling and hydration. Lows continue in the 70s.

Mon-Fri...Weak high pressure ridging continues with associated ridge axis remaining south of ECFL thru this period. A weak frontal boundary remains forecast to drift south toward north FL near/past mid-week as very deep moisture (PWATs well in excess of 2")
continues to surge across the area. Offshore flow appears to dominate this week, with possible ECSB appearances on Mon/Tue, but inland movement will be futile. The ECSB may be hard-pressed to develop at all Wed-Fri as low-level offshore flow increases. With mid/upper level high pressure concentrating further westward, troughiness will align across the eastern CONUS, thus allowing shortwave impulses to dive southward across the FL peninsula in the NW/N flow aloft which will aid in daily convection. NMRS (60-70%) diurnal PoPs most days in the extended. Will likely need to focus on heavy rainfall potential each day on top of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds with storms.

No real break in sight with high temps (90-95F) and peak heat indices continuing to average 102-107F each afternoon ahead of sea breeze/storms. Will continue to monitor for the need for any Heat Advisories, as portions of ECFL could still see heat index values reach around 108-110F.

MARINE
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The Atlc ridge axis influence remains weak into next week, with focus across the local waters early today, then sliding south of the area late this weekend and next week. Boating conditions will remain mostly favorable during this time with winds generally AOB 15 kts as the pgrad remains weak. Light southerly flow early today will "back" onshore into the afternoon, then returning offshore (SW) tonight and remaining mostly an offshore component into at least mid next week. SW winds Tue night/Wed could approach 15-20 kts offshore prompting Cautionary Statements here. There may be east coast sea breeze influence each day into Tue, but inland movement of this feature will be stymied as early as on Sun and probably won't develop at all by Wed as low-level offshore flow (above the surface) strengthens. Seas continue mainly 1-3 ft, but could see small stretches of 4 ft well offshore at times.

Increasing shower/lightning storm potential by Sun and into next week as moisture surges into the area. Could begin to see diurnal offshore-moving convection by Sun with this trend continuing into the week ahead. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Winds often light and variable early today, shifting east- southeast around 5-9 kts behind the sea breeze. Increasing moisture will allow for scattered afternoon showers and storms across portions of east central Florida today. Afternoon VCTS is mentioned across the interior terminals and along the coast from MLB southward. Have included PROB30s at most of these sites around the timing of the sea breeze with the exception of SFB/LEE where confidence is lower. VFR outside of convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 77 93 76 / 10 20 70 40 MCO 96 78 95 77 / 40 20 70 40 MLB 91 76 92 76 / 50 10 70 30 VRB 91 75 93 74 / 50 10 70 30 LEE 96 79 94 78 / 30 20 70 40 SFB 96 78 94 77 / 20 20 70 50 ORL 95 78 94 78 / 30 10 70 50 FPR 91 74 92 74 / 50 20 70 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.