Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Buena Vista, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 820 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The forecast for east central Florida remains on track, with no major adjustments made with the evening update. Conditions are anticipated to remain dry through the overnight hours as an area of high pressure remains situated across the western Atlantic waters. Moisture builds slightly in the low to mid-levels, allowing for some increasing cloud coverage across the area overnight. Onshore winds become lighter and less gusty at 5 to 10 mph. Lows remain seasonable for this time of year, falling into the low to mid 60s across east central Florida.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Once again winds were behaving through the morning update, then started to over perform in the early afternoon as gusts increased to 25-30 mph across much of East Central Florida. RAP analysis indicates the likely culprit is 925mb winds a little stronger than previously indicated over Central Florida mixing down early this afternoon, which may have knocked dew point temperatures down a degree or two as well. We've probably seen the peak of this enhanced low-level flow, as winds aloft are expected to decrease as the center of high pressure over the adjacent Atlantic waters scoots closer, causing surface winds to decrease back to around previous forecast values by the late afternoon or evening. Nearly unanimous consensus in model guidance for this scenario, just a question of precise timing. These slightly stronger winds and slightly lower humidity values do push fire weather conditions across the interior right to the edge of Red Flag criteria, and a few locations could see critical fire weather conditions for an hour or two. Pushed an early edition of the afternoon forecast package based on this development and expected progression.

No significant changes to the rest of the forecast. Can't rule out a rogue sprinkle managing to develop over the Atlantic waters and move onshore, but with areawide PWATs less than 0.75" as indicated by GOES satellite imagery, rain chances remain as close to zero as a meteorologist will say. Onshore flow keeps temperatures along the coast near normal, but subsidence from high pressure building aloft will help push inland temperatures above normal. Lows a bit above normal across the board from continued gentle overnight onshore flow.

Monday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure remains north of the area through mid-week, though slowly meanders closer to the Florida peninsula at times. Little change to the overall pattern, other than an increasingly relaxed pressure gradient leading to lighter east to southeast winds. Daily sea breezes will still cause afternoon winds to increase, with gusts to 15-20 mph along the coast. The fire weather risk will remain elevated due low humidity and no precipitation forecast. Heat will also become an increasing concern, as high temperatures reach the mid-80s along the coast and upper 80s to lower 90s west of I-95 by Wednesday. A few record highs over the interior will be threatened, particularly on Wednesday. Continued onshore flow will keep overnight temperatures in the mid-60s.

Thursday-Next Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) An upper level trough weakens the surface ridge by Thursday, though some form of a ridge axis will continue to remain north of the area into next weekend. Onshore flow continues, with slightly higher moisture (PWATs closer to 1") advecting into the peninsula. Rain chances, though small (~15-20%), initially return to the Treasure Coast and possibly southern counties by Saturday, then spread northward across more of the area on Sunday. While this will likely do little to improve drought conditions or fire weather concerns, any rainfall is welcome at this point. But, it remains to be seen whether these PoPs will be realized. Had to blend in 50% previous forecast to avoid significant windshield wiper-ing of PoPs, so a fair degree of uncertainty in rain chances remains.
Near normal temperatures in the mid-80s along the coast continue, with above normal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the interior.

MARINE
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions, just some lingering unfavorable conditions offshore of the Treasure Coast this afternoon as fresh easterly winds finally ease. The ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic waters will remain north of the area through the week, continuing east to southeast flow. The pressure gradient finally loosens as the center of high pressure meanders towards Florida the next couple days, easing winds to 5-15 kts through mid-week. Weak but persistent easterly fetch holds seas at around 3-5 ft. A more active weather pattern developing over the CONUS late week should stay north of the area as high pressure builds into the Atlantic seaboard, but could cause winds to freshen again. Other than the occasional marine sprinkle, dry conditions.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Prevailing VFR continues thru the TAF period, with dry and quiet weather persisting over the next several days. Aviation forecast continues to simply reflect wind adjustments, with breezy ESE winds diminishing below 10 knots overnight for interior terminals, remaining near 10 knots at the coast. Tomorrow, winds shift a bit more southeasterly and will not be as breezy with the exception of coastal terminals south of KMLB, where gusts up to 20 knots are forecast again through the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

This Afternoon...A few locations across the interior where winds have been a little higher than expected, up to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, and humidity values a little lower than expected, dropping below 35 pct at times, may briefly reach Red Flag criteria. However, these conditions are expected to be short lived, only lasting for an hour or two as most areas should start to see winds decrease in the next couple hours as upper level support for enhanced surface winds moves off.

This Week...Very sensitive fire weather conditions persisting into at least mid-week, as high pressure continues to prevent precipitation chances. East to southeast flow each day will enhance in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops along the coast and moves inland. Winds 10-15 mph and min RH 35-45% over the interior will lead to near-Red Flag conditions at times. Coastal areas will see the breeziest conditions, though onshore low will limit min RH there (45-55%). A warming trend continues through mid-week, with increasing heat concerns, as highs soar into the mid-80s along the coast and lower 90s over the interior by Tuesday and Wednesday. A few record highs will be threatened. Good to Very Good dispersion each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 65 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 66 82 66 83 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 66 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 64 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 66 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 82 66 83 / 10 0 10 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.