Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 5:39 PM   Moonset 4:00 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 949 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Saturday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 211425 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A light to moderate low level NE flow will exist across the area today, between high pressure to the north of the state and low pressure well offshore over the west Atlantic. There is limited moisture in place across the area, with morning soundings and GOES-16 PW imagery showing PW values around 1-1.2" across central FL. However, model guidance does show a modest increase in these values to around 1.4-1.5" through the day with the onshore flow.
Mid-level trough axis extended across the area may allow for some enhanced lift with the inland moving east coast sea breeze to produce scattered showers and isolated storms. However, CAM guidance showing less than impressive convective coverage today.
Therefore, lowered rain chances today, and are no more that 30-40 percent, mainly across the interior and northern coast, while for coastal locations from Melbourne south, PoPs are only around 20 percent. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs in the 80s.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today...Mid level troughing remains in place across the western Atlantic stretching southwestward across Florida. A 500mb vorticity boundary pivots around its base, swinging across the peninsula today. An associated area of surface low pressure offshore the Florida east coast will promote northeast winds, increasing to 10-15 mph as a sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast across much of east central Florida today with models hinting at first development along the Volusia coast. While some mid level vorticity may exist, sounding profiles suggest limited storm organization overall. Steep low level lapse rates could support quick updraft growth. However, the potential for sustained stronger storms may remain limited due to poor shear and poor lapse rates above 850mb. Localized DCAPE values over 1,000 J/kg could possibly allow for a stronger downburst with occasional wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Afternoon temperatures remain warm, near seasonal values. Forecasted highs range the mid 80s along and east of I-95, warming into the upper 80s across the interior. A few areas in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee could even reach the 90 degree mark. Cooler temperatures along the immediate Volusia Coast, mainly in the low 80s.

Wednesday...The wet, stormy pattern transitions as high pressure builds at the surface and aloft. 500mb ridging across the western Gulf extends over the state of Florida Wednesday. Coverage of showers and storms dwindle with only an isolated mention near Lake Okeechobee. Most notably, the building ridge will support a warming temperature trend. Afternoon highs warm into mid to upper 80s along the coast and near I-95, reaching the low 90s across much of the interior.

Thursday-Monday...Anomalous ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday as 500mb heights reach the 90th climatological percentile. Mid level ridging continues to remain in place through the weekend, flattening some as a shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday, increasing moisture and precip chances into the weekend.

Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mostly VFR conditions. Northerly morning winds 5-10 kts veer NE/ENE with speeds increasing to 10-15 kts with higher afternoon gusts. The ECSB will push inland during the afternoon and into WCFL in the evening. ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers and perhaps an ISOLD lightning storm is forecast but confidence low here. MVFR CIGs /VSBYs invof convection. This activity will be associated with the inland moving sea breeze. Will use "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as necessary. Diminished convective chances past early evening.

MARINE
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today-Tonight...Low pressure situated far offshore will support northeast winds around 5-10 kts. Small craft should exercise caution across the offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters before sunrise for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Seas gradually subside through the day, becoming widely 3-4 ft late tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast through late week, promoting favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10 kts veer south into Friday. Mostly dry with the best chance for a shower or storm limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to scattered showers then return across all waters on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 71 85 69 / 30 10 10 0 MCO 88 71 90 69 / 40 10 10 0 MLB 85 73 85 72 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 87 71 87 70 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 88 71 91 71 / 40 10 10 0 SFB 87 70 90 69 / 30 10 10 0 ORL 88 71 90 70 / 40 10 10 0 FPR 87 70 87 69 / 20 20 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:44 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Melbourne, FL,