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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1022 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
This afternoon..South winds 10 knots. Seas 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1022 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will shift eastward off of the atlantic seaboard as a low pressure system develops over the deep south. As this low tracks northeast, its associated cold front will approach florida on Sunday, eventually moving south across the local atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will build in behind the front next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, november 30th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 021531 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1031 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1030 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Morning Cape sounding shows considerable moisture in the low levels and the upper levels with a notable dry layer in the mid levels (750-600mb). This will produce a couple of cloud layers, a low level cu field lifting north and higher clouds streaming west to east. Low level south to southeast flow in the warm sector south of a frontal boundary will produce warm and humid conditions with above normal temperatures reaching the low and mid 80s for highs. Record highs appear out of reach but will keep an eye on LEE whose record is 85F from 2018.

Isolated showers over the Atlc this morning will stay offshore but other showers may develop over land areas of EC FL during peak heating this afternoon with motion toward the NE.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Patchy IFR/MVFR CIGs at LEE/ORL will become VFR by 16Z with S to SE wind flow 7-10 knots across all terminals. Bulk of the SHRA activity should remain north of DAB/LEE but isolated SHRA are possible this afternoon MCO southward during peak heating, with movement toward the NE. Development of IFR CIGs and patchy fog is forecast late tonight and will likely adjust TAFs to indicate this with the next (18Z) package.



PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sunday-Monday...Mid-level ridging across Cuba will be flattened as an approaching trough sweeps across the eastern US. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move northeastward from the Tennessee Valley toward the New England region, with its associated cold front pushing across the southeastern US Sunday through Monday. At the surface, southwesterly flow on Sunday will cause increasing moisture across east central Florida, resulting in increasing rain chances (20 to 30 percent PoPs). The cold front associated with the surface low is then forecast to push across the area Monday into Monday night, with PoPs remaining between 20 to 30 percent through Monday evening. Went ahead and actually increased rain chances on Monday based on the latest model guidance, with multiple models indicating some isolated shower and even thunderstorm development across east central Florida as the cold front pushes through the area.

Perhaps the most noticeable difference with the latest global model runs is that the Euro and GFS have (finally) come into much better agreement on the positioning of the front as it stalls, with both models showing it farther south across the peninsula. This means drier air will filter in behind the front late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, reducing rain chances across the area and keeping drier conditions through the remainder of the week.

Southwesterly flow on Sunday will help continue the warming trend across east central Florida, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 80s across much of the area. This is about 10 degrees above the climatological normal for this time of year. Overnight lows on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s. As the cold front moves through Monday, temperatures will begin to cool, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows falling into the 50s.

Tuesday-Friday...As mentioned earlier, conditions will remain fairly quiet in the long term across east central Florida. Behind the front, quasi-zonal flow sets up across the peninsula in the mid- levels, with another mid-level trough sweeping eastward across the eastern US with little impact at the surface other than pushing an even drier, cooler airmass southward over the southeastern US. At the surface, an area of high pressure develops and strengthens mid- week across the southeastern US, keeping conditions dry locally.
PoPs are forecast to remain below 10 percent. Winds will remain out of the northwest to northeast Tuesday through Thursday, gradually veering to out of the east-northeast on Friday as the surface high slides eastward and sets up directly north of the area. The onshore flow will cause moisture to increase across the area on Friday, resulting in a return of slightly humid conditions.

As mentioned earlier, a drier, slightly cooler airmass is forecast to push southward Wednesday, which will result in a slight decrease in temperatures. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesday and Thursday. A return of onshore flow will cause a slight increase in temperatures on Friday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern, with temperatures Tuesday night in the upper 40s to upper 50s falling into the low 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday night. Overnight temperatures will then rebound slightly on Thursday and Friday night, staying in the upper 40s to low 60s.

MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Local winds veer increasingly sly in response to mid level disturbances and eventual approach of a weakening front tonight. Isolated showers over the waters, along with a possible storm well offshore north of Cape Canaveral. No marine headlines wl be required, as winds avg Sly to SSE 10 to 15 kts over the marine area becoming swly around 10 kts late tonight.
Seas around 3 to 4 feet into tonight.

Sunday-Wednesday...Surface high across the Atlantic gets kicked eastward as a cold front approaches Sunday and moves across the local Atlantic waters through Monday evening, leading to increasing coverage of showers. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.
Behind the front, conditions dry out, and rain chances diminish through midweek. Southwest winds on Sunday will veer to out of the west on Monday, then out of the north-northwest Tuesday through Wednesday. Wind speeds forecast to remain mainly between 10 to 15 knots, with an increase to 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet, with occasional seas to 5 to 6 feet across the offshore waters.

HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Minor Flood Stage through at least the middle of next week, while very slowly declining. The Saint Johns River Above Lake Harney is forecast to very slowly fall out of Action Stage this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 67 83 66 / 10 10 20 20 MCO 85 70 84 68 / 10 10 30 20 MLB 83 68 84 68 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 85 68 85 67 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 83 68 82 66 / 10 20 30 20 SFB 85 69 83 67 / 10 10 20 20 ORL 85 70 83 68 / 10 10 30 20 FPR 85 68 85 66 / 10 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 04:19 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:41 PM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Patrick Air Force Base
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Sat -- 04:36 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EST     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:07 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

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