Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 9:57 PM   Moonset 7:21 AM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 1028 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
the small craft advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning in response to a persistent strong onshore flow with occasional gusts up to 35 knots possible. Winds may weaken slightly tonight, but will quickly ramp up by early Saturday with seas remaining elevated. Some isolated showers and Thunderstorms are possible during the latter portions of Saturday night/Sunday morning. Strong onshore flow Sunday morning is expected to weaken through Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected by Monday and will persist through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms are possible daily Sunday through the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KCRP 270024 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 724 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to high probability of Wind Advisory conditions across Victoria Crossroads Saturday

-High risk of rip currents through Saturday evening

The previous forecast is expected to remain on track through tomorrow night. A mid to upper level disturbance will be moving across the Central Plains tonight into Saturday. Some of associated shortwaves will continue to move through the area during this time as well. There will be moderate instability in the region though PWAT values will remain around normal levels until around 12Z Sunday. The other caveat is the higher CIN values until the late evening hours of Saturday. This will likely limit any convection during the day, though showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over night by Sunday morning. SPC did include the northwestern portions of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather which will likely happen towards the end of the period like previously mentioned.

An associated surface low is expected to develop tomorrow which will enhance the tightening of the pressure gradient over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads during the day which will likely lead to Wind Advisory conditions across those areas with the higher confidence being in the Victoria Crossroads (~70-85%). During the early evening hours, the tight pressure gradient will shift out west potentially leading to similar conditions over the Brush Country.
These conditions will also contribute to Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Gulf Waters through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated even though the winds are expected to drop off by Sunday.

Conditions will remain humid tonight with lows in the 70s expected.
High temperatures to the east will be in the mid 80s with upper 90s out west due to less cloud cover.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday across the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads, then a low to medium chance through the remainder of next week.

- Low to medium chance of minor coastal flooding and a moderate to high rip current risk through middle of next week.

An upper level trough will be moving eastward across the region Sunday and will combine with sufficient moisture, moderate low level convergence, increasing upper level diffluence and instability to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across S TX.
Chances are low to medium (20-50%) with the better chances expected across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads.
Highest chances will be across the Hill Country to the Houston area.
Farther south, the capping inversion will likely inhibit development, thus the lower (10-20%) chances.

Severe weather is not anticipated for Sunday due to unfavorable conditions (mainly the cap), but can not be ruled out across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads due to proximity to more favorable dynamics.

A series of short waves will keep rain chances in the forecast through next week, but a capping inversion will keep the chances low to medium (20-30%).

Breezy to windy south to southeast winds Sunday morning are progged to decrease through the day with generally weak to moderate onshore winds the remainder of the week. Lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s east to 90s west will persist through the extended period.

Due to strong southeasterly winds across the gulf waters this weekend combined with large seas and long period swells around 9 seconds, minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches may occur during times of high tide. This is possible through mid week, then the swells are forecast to decrease.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Expect similar conditions to last night with MVFR CIGS developing early in the night east and late in the night for western terminals. Winds remain elevated, especially at CRP where gusts of 20 kt likely continue through the night. CIGS improve again by mid-day Saturday. Winds should subside to more moderate levels for western sites, but farther easts gusts above 30kt are likely again.

MARINE
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning in response to a persistent strong onshore flow across the marine zones with occasional gusts up to 35 knots possible. Winds may weaken slightly tonight, but will quickly ramp up by early Saturday with seas remaining elevated. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the latter portions of Saturday night/Sunday morning. Strong onshore flow Sunday morning is expected to weaken through Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected by Monday and will persist through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily Sunday through the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 30 Victoria 73 85 73 85 / 10 10 0 50 Laredo 75 98 75 92 / 0 0 10 20 Alice 73 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 30 Rockport 74 83 74 84 / 0 0 0 40 Cotulla 76 97 75 92 / 0 10 20 30 Kingsville 74 90 74 89 / 0 0 0 30 Navy Corpus 75 87 75 84 / 0 0 0 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.

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