Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lacoochee, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-level and surface high pressure drift offshore from the Southeast US today. Locally, PWATs increase from 1.8 to 2". Already, more showers than previous mornings are present on KMLB radar prior to sunrise. Expect this activity to continue along the coast through the morning hours, especially along the Treasure Coast. A few storms will be possible. Then, convection moves inland this afternoon with the sea breeze, with a collision west of Orlando. PoPs 20-50% today will be highest over the interior and taper off through the day along the coast. Warm mid- level temperatures will not favor strong storms. But, steep low- level lapse rates and waterlogged updrafts could lead to a few strong wind gusts. Slow moving storms amid nearly non-existent steering flow will also lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat, though drought still lingers across east central Florida. Highs today reach the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland.
Winds increase to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze.

Lingering convection, driven by the sea breeze collision and outflow boundaries, is expected this evening west of Orlando.
Expect PoPs to decrease through the evening hours, with drier conditions prevailing by midnight. Some additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the Atlantic waters, early in the morning. But, CAMs suggest this activity will remain largely offshore by daybreak. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Thursday-Friday...A weak surface ridge axis from the western Atlantic drifts southward late week. Prevailing onshore flow comes to an end Thursday, with light offshore flow developing on Friday. However, will see a SE sea breeze develop at the coast in the afternoons, regardless, increasing winds to 10-15 mph behind it. Increased moisture and a progressively eastern sea breeze collision will see building shower and storm chances through the period. PoPs up to 50% will still remain generally west of I-95 Thursday, as morning showers stay mostly offshore. Then, PoPs 40-60% area-wide are expected for Friday. The threat for strong storms will remain low, though a few cannot be ruled out. Steering flow will remain weak overall, so locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat. Any areas that see multiple days of heavy rainfall over the same locations could develop a minor flooding threat.

Temperatures increase late week, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s. Humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100+ by Friday. Muggy overnight conditions, with lows in the 70s will provide little relief. HeatRisk increases for Friday, with some areas, especially north and west of I-4, seeing a Major Heat Risk.

Saturday-Wednesday...Surface ridging over the western Atlantic strengthens and drifts westward through the period. This will lead to strengthening offshore flow into early next week. As a result, the east coast sea breeze will face increasing opposition to inland movement and may even be pinned to the coast in the afternoons next week. This flow regime favors higher coverage of showers and storms over the eastern half of the peninsula, which is reflected in the 60-70% PoPs for most days. Amble PWATs for convection (1.8-2+") linger over the area, as well. Southwesterly flow will also support high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s area-wide. Combined with humid conditions, heat indices 100-105+ are forecast in the afternoon. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will be a concern this weekend and into next week, with little relief from overnight temperatures. This is something to keep in mind if you have outdoor plans this weekend, as staying cool and adequately hydrated will become even more important to avoiding heat-related illness.

MARINE
Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Overnight/early morning showers and a storm or two will continue through sunrise this morning. Favorable boating conditions prevail through the weekend, as high pressure continues over the local waters. Onshore winds continue through Thursday, increasing to 10-15 kts at the coast behind the sea breeze. Then, generally light offshore flow will prevail late week and into the weekend, though will still see a SE sea breeze develop near the coast in the afternoons. Winds remain 15 kts or less through the period.
Offshore flow will increase the amount of offshore-moving showers and storms in the afternoons and evenings Friday onward. A few storms could be strong. Seas 2-3 ft, locally higher in and around storms.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms forecast across coastal TAF sites this morning. Will address with "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as we continue to monitor trends. MVFR CIGs /VSBYs invof convection. Will also watch for some early morning MVFR CIGs as well elsewhere. Deeper moisture continues to pool across ECFL and expect morning convection across the coast to push inland during the afternoon with diffuse sea breeze promoting SCT (30-40%) shower & lightning storm chances. "Vicinity" wording in place across interior terminals for later on and will entertain TEMPO groups as needed.
Steering flow fairly weak and don't expect push-back of afternoon and early evening storms to the east coast. ESE/SE winds today increasing to 7-13 kts with some higher gusts outside of convection becoming light/variable again this evening and overnight. May also need to watch for night-time convection near coastal TAF sites, again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 73 90 74 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 91 73 92 75 / 40 20 50 30 MLB 87 76 89 77 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 88 74 90 75 / 30 10 10 10 LEE 92 75 92 76 / 40 40 50 30 SFB 91 73 93 75 / 30 10 50 10 ORL 91 74 92 76 / 40 20 50 20 FPR 87 73 89 74 / 30 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.