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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 133 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late this morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 133 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis.. High pressure will hold over the waters through Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the waters Sunday and Sunday night with increasing winds and seas behind the front, with advisory level winds and seas likely into Monday. Winds will shift more easterly Thursday and remain below advisory levels.

FXUS62 KMLB 070940 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 440 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION

DISCUSSION

Today...A progressive mid level trough off the eastern seaboard early this morning will continue to move offshore into the Atlantic with weak mid level ridging approaching the state this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure centered over Alabama will shift eastward toward the SE GA coast this afternoon. After a cool start, with temps mainly in the 40s across the interior at sunrise, afternoon highs are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low level flow in the H9-H8 layer will veer to the NE during the morning hours and E/ESE this afternoon. This will allow marine stratocu to make its way onshore, most prevalent along the Treasure Coast with scattered stratocu for the northern interior.
Otherwise a very dry airmass is in place in the mid levels with low PWATS and little in the way of moisture return. There will be southward flowing long shore current this morning with, and also a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

Tonight...Surface high pressure to the north will elongate eastward offshore with light onshore flow. Marine stratocu looks again most prevalent across the Treasure Coast with partly cloudy skies for the interior. Surface winds will be become light to calm across the interior with relatively dry airmass in place. Trended low temps a few degrees lower than NBM guidance, which should allow lows to reach the mid 40s in a few of the colder spots across interior Volusia and Lake counties. Otherwise, lows are expected in the lower to mid 50s.

Friday-Sunday... High pressure will gradually build and slide east over the western Atlantic through the weekend. Moisture will increase through Sunday with PWATs in the 1-1.4" range Friday, then increasing to 1.4-1.9" on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated showers are expected through Saturday, mainly over the local Atlantic waters and near the coast. Rain chances (PoPs ~ 40-60%) increase Sunday ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the eastern CONUS into Monday. Onshore southeasterly winds will increase and veer south to southwesterly Sunday ahead of the front. Winds are forecast to gust up to 20-25mph Sunday afternoon, especially along the coast. Expect plenty of cloud cover Friday and Sunday with partly cloudy skies on Saturday. High temperatures in the 70s Friday will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday. Lows are generally forecast to drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday morning, then the upper 50s to upper 60s through the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday... Guidance (ECMWF/CMC/GFS) is in good agreement that the aforementioned cold front will move southeast across central Florida into Monday, before clearing the Treasure Coast by the late morning/early afternoon. Scattered showers with isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning with chances dwindling from north (PoPs ~30/40%) to south (PoPs ~ 40/50%) into the late morning hours. West to southwest winds veer north Monday afternoon, then northeasterly through Wednesday. Winds will be breezy, especially along the coast with gusts up to 25mph each afternoon. Dry air will filter in behind the front Monday afternoon with PWATs dropping into the 0.25-0.50" range. Isolated showers are forecast over the local Atlantic and the Treasure Coast Tuesday. Moisture will increase midweek with isolated to scattered showers returning Wednesday across central Florida. Highs in the low 60s to low 70s Monday rise into the 70s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Today...NNE winds to 15-20 knots offshore will keep advisory levels seas across the gulf stream through mid morning, will continue SCA for the the offshore waters and Treasure Coast near shore waters through 10 am. Winds should veer to NE/ENE and decrease this afternoon allowing winds to gradually subside some,but still to 5-6 ft across the gulf stream this afternoon.

Tonight...Onshore winds to 10 knots expected with seas subsiding further past late evening to 3 ft nearshore and up to 5 ft well offshore.

Friday-Monday... High pressure will gradually slide east over the western Atlantic ahead of a cold front that will cross the local waters Sunday into Monday. Expect isolated showers and lighting storms, mainly in the afternoons with increasing chances Sunday into Monday (PoPs ~50-70%). East to southeasterly winds around 8-15kts increase 20-25kts offshore (20-60nm) Sunday, before veering north Monday at around 15-20kts. Seas build to 3-4ft with up to 5ft in the Gulf Stream, then building to 3-5ft with up to 6-7ft in the Gulf Stream Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Winds today will remain mainly 5-10 mph with Min RHs around 45 percent over portions of the interior. Light E/SE winds will elevate moisture levels further Friday with Min RHs around 55 percent.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 VFR conditions continue with SCT-BKN stratocu 040-050 mainly along the KTIX-SUA corridor through late afternoon. N/NW winds early this morning veer to the NNE/NE by mid morning and become onshore along the coast by late aftn. Winds generally 5-10 knots through 23z then becoming light to calm this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 49 73 61 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 69 52 73 61 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 72 55 76 64 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 73 55 77 65 / 0 0 20 20 LEE 69 50 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 51 74 61 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 70 53 74 62 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 73 52 77 65 / 0 0 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ555-570- 572-575.

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Aripeka
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:56 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:44 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:05 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

Bayport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:45 AM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:57 PM EST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

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