Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aripeka, FL
December 10, 2023 9:44 AM EST (14:44 UTC)
Sunrise 7:10AM Sunset 5:35PM Moonrise 4:49AM Moonset 3:41PM
GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 530 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 25 to 30 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters very rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 25 to 30 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters very rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 530 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis.. Cold front pushing across the waters today into tonight will bring increasing southerly preceding winds followed by north to northwest post-frontal winds reaching advisory levels by this afternoon and evening spreading from northern to southern waters. Winds and seas remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Flow shifts to e/ne by Wednesday and likely returns to cautionary to advisory levels due to gradient with high pressure to the north, likely persisting into late week or the weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms likely today and tonight as front pushes across the waters before drier air works into area for Monday and Tuesday, with showers likely returning mid to late week.
Synopsis.. Cold front pushing across the waters today into tonight will bring increasing southerly preceding winds followed by north to northwest post-frontal winds reaching advisory levels by this afternoon and evening spreading from northern to southern waters. Winds and seas remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Flow shifts to e/ne by Wednesday and likely returns to cautionary to advisory levels due to gradient with high pressure to the north, likely persisting into late week or the weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms likely today and tonight as front pushes across the waters before drier air works into area for Monday and Tuesday, with showers likely returning mid to late week.
Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTBW 101417 AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 917 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 910 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Recent regional radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe storms tracking ESE across the FL panhandle and eastern Gulf as a cold front approaches the are from the northwest. Latest hi-res guidance has the main line of convection moving onshore of the west central FL coastline around 4 PM and about 7 PM for SWFL.
Based on recent hi-res guidance, made some minor adjustments to PoPs on to better reflect latest thinking on the arrival of the squall line. However, severe threat thinking remains the same as previous forecast with damaging winds being the primary concern with this activity, particularly around bowing segments of the line. However, still can't rule out an isolated tornado threat given 0-1 km low level shear around 25 kts, some pockets of higher helicity, and low LCL heights that are forecast. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains in good shape with no other changes planned at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Relatively active period expected later today as a cold front makes its way across the peninsula this afternoon and evening preceded by a round of showers and thunderstorms. Mild conditions in place this morning with another day of above normal temps expected with highs reaching the lower 80s prior the to arrival of the front with increasing southerly winds through the morning into afternoon. Line of showers and storms currently over the central gulf will approach the area from late morning into afternoon across the Nature Coast before spreading into central and southwest Florida during the afternoon into evening before clearing south of the area tonight.
Sufficient instability and shear supportive of organized convection and a few strong to severe thunderstorms is likely ahead of the front, with a marginal risk of damaging wind gusts with stronger convection. Additionally, a few storms could develop a brief tornado threat particularly along the coast as some hi- res guidance hints at the possibility of a few storms forming ahead of the main line of convection, otherwise any tornado threat will remain limited to our typical brief, embedded spin-ups as the primary line of storms pushes across the area. SPC has highlighted Nature Coast areas down to around I-4 including Tampa Bay and the Sarasota area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with the threat increasing this morning over the Nature Coast before expanding south through the afternoon and diminishing this evening. Other SWFL areas can expect showers and perhaps a strong storm or two, however best dynamics aloft will be pulling away from the region as storms make their way farther south, therefore overall threat is likely to diminish with southward extent particularly later this evening.
The front clears the area by Monday with high pressure setting up over the E U.S. as a cooler and drier air mass filters into the state. Cool start to the day on Monday expected with temps dropping into the 40s north to around 60 south, followed by well below normal highs on Monday only topping out in the 60s across the area, some 10-15 degrees below normal for many locations.
Another cool morning on Tuesday before a moderating trend back toward more seasonable temps begins with temps gradually warming back into lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s through mid week and beyond.
The mid to late week period of forecast remains shadowed in a bit of uncertainty as today's frontal boundary stalls well south of the area over the first few days of the week before slowly lifting back northward into the southern gulf by mid week in tandem with shortwave energy aloft moving east across the gulf, providing enough lift to perhaps support a broad area of most likely light precip developing over the area by Thursday and Friday as easterly surface flow north of the surface boundary draws Atlantic low-level moisture over the state. Deterministic guidance remains at odds on the eventual evolution of the forecast thereafter, with the GFS partially phasing a Great Lakes/OH Valley shortwave with a southern stream disturbance over TX and the northern Gulf Coast allowing cyclogenesis over the E Gulf into W Atlantic allowing another push of cooler drier air into the state next weekend, while the ECMWF depicts greater spacing between the disturbances aloft preventing phasing and allowing unsettled conditions to linger into early next week before potentially lifting out. Ensemble guidance currently lies generally in between the deterministic solutions, therefore the current forecast indicates mainly 20-40 PoPs from around Thursday through next weekend, with expected refinement as lead time narrows.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
VFR conditions to start the TAF period this morning but flight conditions are expected to deteriorate later today as a strong cold front and an associated line of thunderstorms moves through the area. The main line of storms should arrive around 20Z-22Z for the northern terminals and around 23Z-02Z this evening for SWFL terminals, which is when the most significant restrictions are possible so TEMPOs have been added to all terminals. MVFR CIGs then move into the area tonight behind the cold front for tonight but drier air building into the area will yield improving conditions by Monday morning with VFR conditions possibly returning by the end of the period. Winds will continue to shift SW today ahead of the front and shift to the NW behind the front tonight with gusts of 25 kts or so possible outside of any convection.
MARINE
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Cold front pushing across the waters today into tonight will bring increasing southerly preceding winds followed by north to northwest post-frontal winds reaching advisory levels by this afternoon and evening spreading from northern to southern waters.
Winds and seas remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Flow shifts to E/NE by Wednesday and likely returns to cautionary to advisory levels due to gradient with high pressure to the north, likely persisting into late week or the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms likely today and tonight as front pushes across the waters before drier air works into area for Monday and Tuesday, with showers likely returning mid to late week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Cold front pushing across the area today will bring showers and storms much of the day today before high pressure builds to the north with cooler drier air mass working into the peninsula on Monday. Moisture gradually recovers mid to late week as additional unsettled conditions develop favoring at least a chance of showers late week into next weekend. No fire concerns expected, however, as enough moisture remains in place through the period to maintain minimum RH values in the 40-50 percent range on Monday before recovering thereafter.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 52 64 49 / 70 60 0 0 FMY 82 58 69 53 / 20 40 0 0 GIF 82 49 64 48 / 50 50 0 0 SRQ 80 52 66 49 / 70 60 0 0 BKV 81 44 63 41 / 70 70 0 0 SPG 76 53 63 52 / 70 60 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM EST this evening through late Monday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 917 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 910 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Recent regional radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe storms tracking ESE across the FL panhandle and eastern Gulf as a cold front approaches the are from the northwest. Latest hi-res guidance has the main line of convection moving onshore of the west central FL coastline around 4 PM and about 7 PM for SWFL.
Based on recent hi-res guidance, made some minor adjustments to PoPs on to better reflect latest thinking on the arrival of the squall line. However, severe threat thinking remains the same as previous forecast with damaging winds being the primary concern with this activity, particularly around bowing segments of the line. However, still can't rule out an isolated tornado threat given 0-1 km low level shear around 25 kts, some pockets of higher helicity, and low LCL heights that are forecast. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains in good shape with no other changes planned at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Relatively active period expected later today as a cold front makes its way across the peninsula this afternoon and evening preceded by a round of showers and thunderstorms. Mild conditions in place this morning with another day of above normal temps expected with highs reaching the lower 80s prior the to arrival of the front with increasing southerly winds through the morning into afternoon. Line of showers and storms currently over the central gulf will approach the area from late morning into afternoon across the Nature Coast before spreading into central and southwest Florida during the afternoon into evening before clearing south of the area tonight.
Sufficient instability and shear supportive of organized convection and a few strong to severe thunderstorms is likely ahead of the front, with a marginal risk of damaging wind gusts with stronger convection. Additionally, a few storms could develop a brief tornado threat particularly along the coast as some hi- res guidance hints at the possibility of a few storms forming ahead of the main line of convection, otherwise any tornado threat will remain limited to our typical brief, embedded spin-ups as the primary line of storms pushes across the area. SPC has highlighted Nature Coast areas down to around I-4 including Tampa Bay and the Sarasota area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with the threat increasing this morning over the Nature Coast before expanding south through the afternoon and diminishing this evening. Other SWFL areas can expect showers and perhaps a strong storm or two, however best dynamics aloft will be pulling away from the region as storms make their way farther south, therefore overall threat is likely to diminish with southward extent particularly later this evening.
The front clears the area by Monday with high pressure setting up over the E U.S. as a cooler and drier air mass filters into the state. Cool start to the day on Monday expected with temps dropping into the 40s north to around 60 south, followed by well below normal highs on Monday only topping out in the 60s across the area, some 10-15 degrees below normal for many locations.
Another cool morning on Tuesday before a moderating trend back toward more seasonable temps begins with temps gradually warming back into lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s through mid week and beyond.
The mid to late week period of forecast remains shadowed in a bit of uncertainty as today's frontal boundary stalls well south of the area over the first few days of the week before slowly lifting back northward into the southern gulf by mid week in tandem with shortwave energy aloft moving east across the gulf, providing enough lift to perhaps support a broad area of most likely light precip developing over the area by Thursday and Friday as easterly surface flow north of the surface boundary draws Atlantic low-level moisture over the state. Deterministic guidance remains at odds on the eventual evolution of the forecast thereafter, with the GFS partially phasing a Great Lakes/OH Valley shortwave with a southern stream disturbance over TX and the northern Gulf Coast allowing cyclogenesis over the E Gulf into W Atlantic allowing another push of cooler drier air into the state next weekend, while the ECMWF depicts greater spacing between the disturbances aloft preventing phasing and allowing unsettled conditions to linger into early next week before potentially lifting out. Ensemble guidance currently lies generally in between the deterministic solutions, therefore the current forecast indicates mainly 20-40 PoPs from around Thursday through next weekend, with expected refinement as lead time narrows.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
VFR conditions to start the TAF period this morning but flight conditions are expected to deteriorate later today as a strong cold front and an associated line of thunderstorms moves through the area. The main line of storms should arrive around 20Z-22Z for the northern terminals and around 23Z-02Z this evening for SWFL terminals, which is when the most significant restrictions are possible so TEMPOs have been added to all terminals. MVFR CIGs then move into the area tonight behind the cold front for tonight but drier air building into the area will yield improving conditions by Monday morning with VFR conditions possibly returning by the end of the period. Winds will continue to shift SW today ahead of the front and shift to the NW behind the front tonight with gusts of 25 kts or so possible outside of any convection.
MARINE
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Cold front pushing across the waters today into tonight will bring increasing southerly preceding winds followed by north to northwest post-frontal winds reaching advisory levels by this afternoon and evening spreading from northern to southern waters.
Winds and seas remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Flow shifts to E/NE by Wednesday and likely returns to cautionary to advisory levels due to gradient with high pressure to the north, likely persisting into late week or the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms likely today and tonight as front pushes across the waters before drier air works into area for Monday and Tuesday, with showers likely returning mid to late week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
Cold front pushing across the area today will bring showers and storms much of the day today before high pressure builds to the north with cooler drier air mass working into the peninsula on Monday. Moisture gradually recovers mid to late week as additional unsettled conditions develop favoring at least a chance of showers late week into next weekend. No fire concerns expected, however, as enough moisture remains in place through the period to maintain minimum RH values in the 40-50 percent range on Monday before recovering thereafter.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 52 64 49 / 70 60 0 0 FMY 82 58 69 53 / 20 40 0 0 GIF 82 49 64 48 / 50 50 0 0 SRQ 80 52 66 49 / 70 60 0 0 BKV 81 44 63 41 / 70 70 0 0 SPG 76 53 63 52 / 70 60 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM EST this evening through late Monday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL | 21 mi | 170 min | ENE 8G | 69°F | 30.02 | 65°F | ||
| CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL | 33 mi | 74 min | ESE 5.1G | 30.01 | ||||
| TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL | 37 mi | 86 min | E 2.9G | |||||
| EBEF1 | 38 mi | 74 min | 30.00 | |||||
| SKCF1 | 38 mi | 86 min | ESE 2.9G | |||||
| OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL | 41 mi | 74 min | SSE 6G | 30.01 | ||||
| GCTF1 | 47 mi | 74 min | 29.98 | |||||
| SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL | 47 mi | 74 min | SSE 4.1G | 30.02 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKV BROOKSVILLETAMPA BAY RGNL,FL | 11 sm | 51 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 30.01 |
Wind History from BKV
(wind in knots)Aripeka
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EST -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 11:48 AM EST 2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:39 PM EST 2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EST -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 11:48 AM EST 2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:39 PM EST 2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| -0.2 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Hudson, Hudson Creek, Florida, Tide feet
Tampa Bay Area, FL,
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