Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aripeka, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:34PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:51PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 140 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday night..East winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..East winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Sunday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 140 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Synopsis..Light northerly winds and fairly calm seas will remain through tomorrow evening. A round of showers are possible tomorrow night across offshore waters as a passing front pushes through. This front will lead to increasing winds and seas Wednesday night into Thursday. By Friday, winds and seas will be approaching cautionary, then advisory levels in offshore waters. Winds and seas will gradually settle down through the weekend. Mariners planning to boat on the eastern gulf later this week should Monitor the latest forecast for updates on these anticipated rough conditons.


Hourly Forecast for Marine Location Near Aripeka, FL
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location: 28.44, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 171737
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
137 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019

Short term
An upper-level ridge that has been created in part by humberto and a
tropical wave in the western gulf will be replaced by a positively
tilted upper-level trough axis as it dives southward. This trough
will serve to filter "cooler" and drier air into the area beginning
late tomorrow night.

For this afternoon evening, however, humberto continues to influence
our weather as the cyclonic (clockwise) flow brings drier,
continental air over the region. This is not unlike conditions for
the rest of the week, but the more comfortable conditions are still
trapped to the north of the peninsula. Complements of diurnal
heating, lack of rain, and fewer clouds, temps are expected to reach
the low-to-mid 90s for almost everywhere except the immediate coast
between now and roughly 5pm. Unlike last week where high humidity
combined with higher temperatures reached heat advisory criteria,
the drier air should keep temperatures feeling closer to the actual
value. It will still feel hot, but not as hot as last week.

Thankfully, conditions will begin to transition tomorrow as the
front makes it way through the area. A few showers are possible
across the region, particularly tomorrow afternoon evening.

Temperatures will respond to this change on Thursday with highs
reaching the mid-to-upper 80s as opposed to the lower 90s. The
humidity levels will be the most noticeable difference, with
conditions feeling more comfortable beginning Thursday. Winds will
also increase with a tighter pressure and thermal gradient across
florida. Overall, Thursday will be a nice day across the region.

Long term
Conditions will gradually return to a late summer pattern through
the weekend and into next week. A tropical wave passing through the
florida straights will also facilitate the return of moisture to
southern portions of the peninsula. There are noticeable
discrepancies at this point in the forecast between the global
models, with the precipitation parameterization schemes
struggling to determine the northward exentent of the
precipitation. However, there has been a northward trend in
precipitation over the last couple cycles and this may continue.

Overall, conditions are expected to warm up and humidity moisture
levels will begin to return early next week.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will
become light and variable overnight and then light northeast on
Wednesday.

Marine
Light northerly winds and fairly calm seas will remain through
tomorrow evening. A round of showers are possible tomorrow night
across offshore waters as a passing front pushes through. This front
will lead to increasing winds and seas Wednesday night into
Thursday. By Friday, winds and seas will be approaching cautionary,
then advisory levels in offshore waters. Winds and seas will
gradually settle down through the weekend. Mariners planning to boat
on the eastern gulf later this week should monitor the latest
forecast for updates on these anticipated rough conditons.

Fire weather
Conditions will begin to dry out the remainder of this week. Aside
from some low rain chances Wednesday afternoon evening, little-to-no
rain is expected for the next several days. While drier
comparatively to what has been the typical weather for the last few
months, conditions are expected to remain above critical levels.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 75 93 73 89 0 40 10 10
fmy 74 92 73 88 0 40 10 10
gif 73 93 72 88 0 30 0 10
srq 75 93 73 89 0 40 20 10
bkv 71 93 71 89 0 40 10 10
spg 76 93 74 90 0 40 20 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term long term marine fire weather... 97 flannery
aviation decision support... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 1 mi138 min NW 7 G 9.9 94°F 1014.1 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 21 mi78 min NNW 9.9 G 11 87°F 1014.2 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi60 min NW 11 G 12 86°F 87°F1013.8 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 37 mi60 min WNW 4.1 G 9.9
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 37 mi60 min WNW 6 G 13
MCYF1 38 mi54 min 90°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 41 mi54 min NW 15 G 16 88°F 86°F1013.3 hPa
GCTF1 47 mi54 min 88°F 1013 hPa72°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 47 mi54 min NW 7 G 9.9 91°F 86°F1013.7 hPa
CLBF1 49 mi78 min NW 7 G 11 90°F 1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL11 mi79 minNW 910.00 miFair94°F68°F43%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
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------CalmCalmSE3------Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--544W10
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1 day agoE5CalmCalmCalm------------Calm------N3------NE8N6N54W8W11
2 days agoNE10
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NE7NE6------------------N5N6----NE9E10E8NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:07 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:26 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.22.93.33.22.82.31.61.10.60.40.40.91.72.63.13.232.621.40.90.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson Creek, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.