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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 345 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest late. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 345 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis.. North and northwest winds will hold today and tonight in the wake of the recent cold front. Wind speeds will increase early Wednesday morning to small craft exercise caution or small craft advisory levels, subsiding again Wednesday night through the rest of the week.

FXUS62 KTBW 051119 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 619 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with mainly northwest/north winds.

DISCUSSION
As a short wave trough moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast early this morning, a stronger trough will dig into the southeastern CONUS today and tonight. At this surface, this upper level pattern has resulted in a series of cold fronts...one that has already pushed south of the forecast area, a second that is pushing south through the area today, and a third that will push through on Wednesday.
This is resulting in a sustained period of cold air advection, with seasonably cool temperatures this morning dropping to near to slightly below normal Wednesday morning, then the coldest temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s over the Nature Coast and 40s and low 50s over the rest of west central and southwest Florida. The NBM is forecasting notably warmer temperatures behind the cold front than the global models, so the official forecast is leaning more towards a blend of GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance for minimum temperatures. Temperatures will then moderate Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. Otherwise, rain chances will remain minimal through Saturday.

During the weekend, a deep trough will eject from the Plains into the eastern US, pulling a strong cold front into Florida Sunday or Sunday night. Southerly flow ahead of this front will lead to moisture pooling and some showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the frontal passage. Temperatures will drop again behind the front with Monday morning lows forecast to range from the low 40s to around 60 and afternoon highs in the low 60s to mid 70s.

MARINE
High pressure building in behind the recent cold front will lead to north and northwest winds today and tonight. A secondary cold front push will lead to increasing wind speeds late tonight and Wednesday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Winds will subside Wednesday night and Thursday as winds turn to easterly behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER
Drier air will fill in behind the cold front today, with relative humidity percentages dropping into the upper 30s. Although a few spots may briefly hit critically low humidity, winds are not forecast to be fast enough to trigger Red Flag Warnings. Spotty high dispersion indices will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 57 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 57 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 74 51 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 75 59 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 72 49 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 72 60 66 51 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Bayport
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Tue -- 12:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:35 AM EST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:04 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

Chassahowitzka
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Tue -- 12:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EST     0.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida, Tide feet

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