Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hill 'n Dale, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The cold front that pushed through the region yesterday remains stalled in the Straits of Florida and northern Bahamas, which is providing a focus for moisture pooling in the vicinity of this feature. As the atmosphere continues to destabilize through the remainder of the day with MLCAPE values reaching around 1500-2000 J/kg, isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop mainly in southern interior areas south of I-4 where a substantial moisture gradient is in place. This activity will generally be sub-severe but with drier air aloft, there could be some gusty winds with any of the taller cores that can develop but this should be rather isolated specifically for the area near and north of Lake Okeechobee.

Any of the rainfall activity that develops later today will mostly taper off by the mid evening hours, but the forecast for overnight is a bit more tricky as some guidance is showing the potential for lingering light shower activity overnight. This appears to be due to weak isentropic ascent developing in the wake of deeper moisture coming up from the south as the aforementioned frontal boundary pulls northward. Forecast soundings show plenty of low level moisture will be in place so at a minimum this will support a stratus deck overnight with some possible light shower activity at times, though rain chances will be low. Complicating factors further is there also could be some patchy fog but considering the low confidence in this scenario, have only added this to portions of the Nature Coast for now but forecast updates on this may be needed this evening and overnight if it overachieves.

On Saturday, the remnant frontal boundary/surface trough will be in place and this combined with the sea breeze circulation will support scattered showers and storms later in the day.
Precipitation coverage is then expected to increase further on Sunday as southern stream troughing aloft establishes in the Gulf and a shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow traverses across the region. In addition, greater moisture advection also occurs as the deep southerly flow develops. Overall, it will be a warm and humid weekend ahead with highs in the mid 80s and unsettled at times with higher rain chances on Sunday but some localized areas could certainly receive some beneficial rainfall.

An end to the prolonged period of above-normal warmth that has dominated the first half of March is on the horizon by early next week as long range guidance shows a potent upper level trough moving across the central CONUS. This will support a rapidly deepening low pressure system around the Great Lakes on Monday with its cold front expected to approach northern Florida in the morning before sweeping through the peninsula on Monday night. A line of showers and thunderstorms could accompany this frontal boundary and while it appears that best dynamics will remain north of our region, there may be some potential of strong to severe storms with this system. However, details this far out are still not clear so this will be something that we monitor throughout the weekend. One thing more clear is that a much cooler air mass that will build into the area in the wake of the frontal passage as highs on Tuesday look to be in the 50s and 60s. In addition, can't completely rule out some late-season frost potential across the Nature Coast particularly Tuesday night where lows in the mid 30s will be possible, though this risk looks low at this time as winds may remain elevated enough to prevent frost development. It will also be much drier through the remainder of the week as surface high pressure builds in from the north, though low PoPs have been kept in the forecast at least for southern portions of the forecast area through much of the week as the frontal boundary stalls south of the area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A few showers and storms may develop around SWFL terminals later today but otherwise conditions should remain VFR through this evening. Areas of low stratus or possible patchy fog then may develop overnight which may cause restrictions at some terminals.
And low clouds and/or fog will lift by mid morning on Saturday with VFR conditions generally returning to the area through the afternoon, but additional shra/vcts may occur again later tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Seas will be on a decreasing trend to start the weekend with seas falling to 1 ft or less on Saturday as lingering swell behind Thursday's cold front continues to subside. However, marine conditions will deteriorate again by late weekend and into early next week as a strong cold front moves across the Gulf waters on Monday and Monday night. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest on Monday ahead of the cold front but will shift to a northerly direction Monday night into Tuesday with seas possibly peaking around 7-9 ft. Thus, there is high confidence that headlines will be needed early next week as a result of this system. In addition, daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the weekend at times and ahead of Monday's cold front, where a line of showers and thunderstorms could accompany the frontal boundary as it moves through.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A lingering frontal boundary and deeper moisture remaining around the area will support daily chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend with the highest rain chances expected on Sunday. A strong cold front then sweeps across the area on Monday with a line of showers and thunderstorms possibly accompanying the front but much cooler and drier air filters in by the middle of next week. The drier air mass that builds in behind this front may cause relative humidity values to reach critical levels for several days next week so fire danger may increase during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 83 69 84 / 10 40 20 70 FMY 68 86 68 86 / 20 50 30 70 GIF 66 83 67 86 / 20 60 30 80 SRQ 67 84 67 84 / 10 40 20 70 BKV 60 83 62 86 / 10 50 20 70 SPG 71 84 72 84 / 10 40 20 70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.