Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clermont, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad high pressure aloft and at the surface south of the Florida peninsula will support ongoing west to northwest flow within the boundary layer and aloft. A quasi- stationary boundary will also remain draped across the southeastern US. Locally, flow will be weaker than yesterday, allowing for a slightly better development and progression inland of the east coast sea breeze, though it is anticipated to remain pinned near the I-95 corridor. In addition to the persistent west to northwest flow, precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches continue, allowing for high coverage of clouds, which may limit some daytime heating this morning and into the afternoon hours.
This would be a limiting factor for development later in the day.
With the persistent west-northwest flow and the ample moisture, a sea breeze collision sometime after 2 PM is forecast, leading to increasing coverage of showers and storms, especially along the east central Florida coast. Have tampered PoPs down to 40-50% areawide given the potential for cloud coverage limiting activity, but still anticipate the highest coverage along the coast late this afternoon into this evening. Storm development chances are also highest along the coast, but cannot rule out some isolated storms across the interior with any development that forms along the west coast sea breeze as it pushes eastward. The strongest storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts to 45 mph, but the main concern with activity continues to be heavy rainfall that could lead to minor, localized flooding. Rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible, especially along the coast, and localized higher amounts exceeding 3" cannot be ruled out. Showers and storms will move offshore through the late evening hours, with activity diminishing across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the overnight hours across the peninsula.

As mentioned, greater cloud coverage will help limit daytime heating, but the moist air mass will lead to another muggy day.
Temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices ranging from the mid 90s to the low 100s in some spots. If spending extended periods of time outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building. Low temperatures overnight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s, with the cooler locations primarily confined to the rural portions of east central Florida.

Monday-Tuesday...The broad high will remain south of the Florida peninsula through the start of this week, but the pattern shifts slightly as a non-tropical low pressure develops along the aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary across the Carolinas and Georgia on Monday and moves offshore Monday night into Tuesday.
Westerly winds pick up slightly on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens and ease on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the north Tuesday night as the low moves offshore. The moist air mass is anticipated to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday, keeping conditions favorable for at least scattered shower and storm development across east central Florida, with the sea breeze collision continuing to be favored across the eastern portion of the Florida peninsula. Currently maintain a 40-60% chance of showers and storms on Monday and a 60-70% chance of showers and storms on Tuesday. Prevailing westerly flow will favor activity moving offshore through the overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions forecast across the peninsula each night.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Muggy, humid conditions will also persist due to the moist air mass. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Another non-tropical low is anticipated to develop along the boundary to the north, dragging the boundary southward as a cold front across the Florida peninsula Wednesday into Thursday as the low pushes offshore across the Atlantic. As a result, temperatures are anticipated to cool slightly into the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday, but this will be short- lived as high pressure settles across the Florida peninsula and allows temperatures to warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s by late week. Rain chances are highest on Wednesday prior to the passage of the cold front, with drier air filtering in behind the front and remaining in place through the rest of the week. Exact placement of the cold front as it weakens and stalls across south Florida will determine just how far south the drier air settles, which has consequences on just how high rain chances will remain across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Anticipate some shifts in PoPs over the next few days as guidance comes into better agreement.

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

West to northwest flow will persist around 10 to 15 knots across the local waters through at least Tuesday, keeping boating conditions generally favorable early this week. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 5 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon through the overnight hours, with the strongest storms capable of producing cloud-to- water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and locally higher seas. Activity will diminish late at night into the early morning hours.

The pattern shifts on Wednesday as a cold front moves southward across the local waters, causing winds to shift to out of the north- northeast at 15 to 25 knots. Poor boating conditions develop Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with seas building up to 7 feet, especially across the offshore waters. The northeast winds will gradually subside Thursday and become more easterly through late week, maintaining seas of 3 to 6 feet. Drier air filtering in from the north will help decrease rain chances from Thursday onward, though isolated development, especially across the southern waters, cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Mainly VFR thru 12z. A brief, offshore-moving shower cannot be ruled out, esp. MLB northward. More sunshine today should support a more formidable east coast sea breeze this afternoon. While there's still low confidence in SHRA/TSRA evolution, higher chances exist after 19-20z at coastal terminals. Activity will linger thru 02-03z Mon. before pushing offshore. Brief CIG/VIS reductions are possible with TSRA impacts, esp. TIX southward where coverage may be slightly higher. Iso. -SHRA could linger thru 04z or so.

WNW winds generally less that 10 kt today, turning onshore at coastal sites by 17-19z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 74 89 74 / 50 30 60 20 MCO 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 40 10 MLB 88 76 90 77 / 50 30 50 10 VRB 88 75 90 75 / 50 40 40 10 LEE 89 76 89 76 / 40 20 40 20 SFB 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 50 20 ORL 88 76 89 76 / 50 20 40 20 FPR 88 75 89 75 / 50 40 50 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.