Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clermont, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:56PM Monday April 19, 2021 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 257 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 257 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis..Scattered to numerous showers and some embedded lightning storms will continue to quickly move eastward across the region through the evening, with a brief lull in the overnight hours. Disturbed wet weather, with a chance of storms, will exist through early Wednesday. Outside of any storms, winds will be rather variable and generally less than 12 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. By Thursday, the frontal boundary causing the wet weather will sink south of the local waters, leading to a brief period of hazardous marine conditions later this week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, april 18th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clermont, FL
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location: 28.55, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 191940 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 340 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

DISCUSSION.

. Heavy Rain Potential Continues through Midweek .

Current-Tonight . Frontal movement southward is evidenced well in radar trend over the last few hours, as strong thunderstorms have shifted southward, reaching coastal Brevard County and now exiting south of Lake Okeechobee and coastal Palm Beach County. The front is currently analyzed from New Symrna Beach to Tampa Bay, just a few miles south from the morning analysis placement. After a brief lull in activity earlier this afternoon, showers and storms quickly ramped up, but generally remained below strong thresholds. Convection streaming across the peninsula from the Gulf has mostly weakened as of the mid afternoon, suggesting that the remainder of the evening should be relatively benign, albeit isolated strong storms south of a line from Kissimmee to Melbourne.

With the HRRR finally catching up to latest trends, have higher confidence in a brief period of quieting this evening and early tonight, with rain chances dropping to 20-40% through midnight, and even lower north of I-4 where skies have already begun to clear in Marion & Putnam counties. The front will continue its journey southward this evening and overnight, potentially even reaching near Lake Okeechobee. However, rain chances will rebound quickly to above 50% just prior to daybreak as additional upper forcing arrives to FL, expanding eastward from the northern Gulf Coast, and the front floats back northward. Lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 60s, although far northern Lake and Volusia counties may record values in the upper 50s to lower 60s, feeling an influence of slightly cooler air behind the front.

Tomorrow . Tuesday looks to be the wettest day of the week, as the dancing boundary retreats back northward one last time. No change to expected rainfall, as record PW values over 2.00" continue to pump along the boundary from the Gulf. Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated, with a few strong to marginally severe storms that could produce similar impacts as seen the past few days. Rainfall totals tomorrow on the order of 1-2", contributing to the 2-4" totals already received over the last few days in the area. With the ground becoming more saturated, the chance for minor flooding becomes enhanced, and thus an increased flood concern will be present tomorrow, generally south of I-4 and for areas that have already received multiple rounds of heavy rain. PoPs tomorrow at an unheard of 80-90% for April, which might be a little aggressive given trends over the last 48 hours, but definitely making a dent in the rainfall deficit across the peninsula. Another day of extensive cloud cover keeping highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night . The lingering frontal boundary will begin to jog slightly southward Tuesday night, as a reinforcing cold front pushes into the Southeast. Rain chances will remain elevated through the overnight, but will finally see some decreases across northern portions of the area, as PoPs range from around 30% north of I-4 to 60% along the Treasure Coast. A couple of thunderstorms will also remain possible. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25-1" expected. Morning lows falling into the 60s.

The reinforcing cold front will cross into northern Florida through the day on Wednesday, finally forcing the persistent boundary south of the Florida peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into Wednesday evening, but will be greatly reduced from the previous two days. In fact, expecting dry conditions north of I-4, with chances remaining around 50-60% along the Treasure Coast, mainly in the morning. PoPs will continue to decrease from north to south through the day; Then, only a slight chance of showers for Wednesday night along the southern Treasure Coast. Wednesday afternoon highs will take advantage of the decreasing cloud cover, rising into the mid-80s.

Thursday-Saturday(modified previous) . High pressure builds in across the Southeast U.S. and FL to end the week. Dry conditions prevail Thursday and Friday, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Breezy north winds early on Thursday quickly veer onshore by Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows settle into the mid/upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s along the coast. Models are indicating another front could cross the local area next weekend, but there are considerable timing and location differences. For now, have opted to add a 20 percent chance of rain for Saturday.

AVIATION. Generally MVFR/IFR cigs across the area, however the front has dropped a bit south of KEVB, allowing for cloud breaks this afternoon for DAB/SFB/LEE. Most SHRA/TSRA activity through 00Z will concentrate south of MLB, with lingering low clouds persisting through the overnight. Expect showers to come to an end briefly this evening into the early morning, ramping up again after 10/12Z. Low stratus will accompany showers early tomorrow, leading to another day of widespread MVFR/IFR. Confidence is high in numerous showers through most of Tue, with lower confidence in exact setup of thunderstorms thru the TAF period.

MARINE. Tonight-Tomorrow . Showers and storms will move quickly offshore from the mainland across the Atlantic waters, generally south of Cape Canaveral through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Activity will redevelop early tomorrow morning, with heavy rain and potential for gusty winds through most of the day. Position of the slow moving frontal boundary will cause varying wind direction, which will shift from onshore in the morning to southeast by the afternoon, remaining 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 ft.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night . The persistent boundary continues to linger into Wednesday morning, bringing high rain chances with embedded thunderstorms possible. However, a reinforcing cold front pushing through the Southeast will reach northern Florida Wednesday, finally forcing the boundary south of the peninsula. Winds will continue to vary across the local waters, though mostly remaining around 10 knots or less. Seas 2-3ft.

Thursday-Friday(previous) . High pressure builds across the local waters, ushering in breezy north winds Thursday morning that become northeast by the afternoon. A period of hazardous boating conditions is possible due to the winds, though seas are expected to remain at 2-4 feet. By Friday, winds become east at 10-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet nearshore and 4 feet offshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 62 76 63 83 / 30 80 30 10 MCO 65 78 66 84 / 60 90 40 20 MLB 67 81 65 83 / 60 90 60 30 VRB 67 83 66 84 / 60 90 60 40 LEE 64 76 65 83 / 40 80 30 10 SFB 64 77 65 85 / 50 90 30 10 ORL 67 78 67 85 / 50 90 40 10 FPR 66 83 67 84 / 70 90 60 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION . Smith LONG TERM/RADAR . Leahy DECISION SUPPORT . Negron


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 49 mi101 min N 1.9 G 6 74°F 1012.4 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 56 mi53 min NNE 4.1 G 6
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 56 mi65 min N 4.1 G 7

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Leesburg International Airport, FL19 mi42 minSE 410.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1012.6 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL22 mi42 minVar 610.00 miFair74°F64°F71%1012.7 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL24 mi39 minN 310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F67°F81%1012.9 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL24 mi42 minSW 410.00 miLight Rain73°F64°F74%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLEE

Wind History from LEE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3NW8CalmCalmE3S3S3S6S63SW3SW3W5W3N6N7NW5W5NW63NW4S3SE4
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NE5E5S4S3CalmN3N4CalmCalmCalmN6N11NE8NE4S5S4CalmCalm
2 days agoS3W4NE10NE9E4SE5SE6SE5SE4S8SW7SW7S8CalmS53W3SW3S6W8SW7W9W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida
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Chassahowitzka
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida (2)
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Chassahowitzka
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:49 PM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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