Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Lavaca, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mid-level flow across the region will generally remain southwesterly through much of the forecast period as broad mid-level high pressure persists over the eastern Gulf with several mid-level disturbances and troughing over the western CONUS. A series of weak shortwaves will track well north of the region, keeping South Texas dry for much of the remaining week.

At the surface, an elongated high over the western Atlantic will expand over the eastern Gulf and maintain a persistent onshore flow regime through the week, strengthening around the end of the workweek ahead of our next cold front. This will support moisture advection and will promote increasing PWATs with the GEFS ensemble mean reaching 1.75" this upcoming weekend. Another cold front is progged to move across South Texas sometime Saturday/Sunday morning with increasing rain chances (low to moderate) due to above normal moisture but a persistent cap will likely limit vertical development. Lower rain chances may persist into next workweek.

Subsidence across the region and stable conditions the rest of this workweek will combine with periods of partly cloudy skies to keep temperature trends above seasonal norms, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Bend and upper 80s to mid 90s inland. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Expect cooler conditions behind the front with mid to upper 70s across much of the region Sunday and Monday afternoons.

A Moderate rip current risk and potential minor coastal flooding are likely to continue this week driven by persistent onshore flow, longer-period swells up to around 8 seconds, and 4-6 foot wave heights. PETSS guidance has increasing levels heading into the weekend with astronomical tides as we approach a new moon on April 17th. Conditions will continue to be monitored and additional Minor Coastal Flood Advisories may be issued as needed.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are expected this morning before all sites return to VFR by mid-morning. Winds will increase once again late this morning and continue through the afternoon with gusts to 30 knots at times. With confidence increasing since the last forecast, introduced MVFR ceilings for tonight starting between 04-08z.

MARINE
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the week with periods of strong (BF 6) flow. Winds will back to a northeasterly flow with the front, increasing to Fresh to Strong through late this upcoming weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Rain-free conditions expected through the end of the workweek but rain/storm chances increase to low to moderate as the front moves across the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Fire weather concerns remain generally low due to increased low- level moisture promoted by persistent onshore flow and elevated humidity. However, inland areas-particularly across the western Brush Country-may experience afternoon minimum RH values dropping into the 30-40% range during the latter half of the week at times with warmer temperatures and moderate onshore winds (10-20 mph).
Despite these factors, abundant moisture and ERC values in the 20- 25th percentile range and RFTI values near or at zero will limit fire weather potential. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 84 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 93 72 90 71 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 88 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 92 71 89 70 / 0 0 20 10 Kingsville 86 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 73 80 74 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.