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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 241 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through Sunday morning...
.low water advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm cst Sunday...
Tonight..Northwest winds around 15 knots, becoming north around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots late this evening and overnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming very rough late this evening and overnight. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms early this evening, then a slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms late this evening. Patchy fog this evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots. Bay waters rough, becoming slightly choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming northeast late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..East winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 241 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
winds are becoming somewhat variable this afternoon in advance of a cold front expected to push off the coast early this evening. Some scattered pockets of sea fog may briefly develop just before the front passes. Strong northwest and north winds around gale force with building seas are anticipated behind the front overnight into Sunday morning. Low water conditions are also anticipated in the bays late Saturday night and Sunday. Conditions should slowly improve late Sunday into Monday as high pressure moves overhead and then to the east. Heading into the early and middle parts of next week, a long fetch of moderate east winds set up across the gulf which will cause building seas and above normal tides.

FXUS64 KCRP 092343 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 543 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 131 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Gale conditions expected overnight in wake of a strong cold front

- Windy overnight along barrier Islands

- 50-70% probability for freezing temperatures over northern coastal plains early Monday Morning

It's difficult to pick out the exact location of the cold front, but its appears to be approaching the northern brush country at this time. The front is projected to reach the coast around 8pm this evening per the last several runs of the HRRR. As the front moves through, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coastal counties and over the gulf waters. Surface based CAPEs were >2000 j/kg and the front should be deep enough to break the cap as it moves through. Near 70 dwpts overrunning the 65 degree shelf waters could result in some patchy sea fog forming along the coast this afternoon in advance of the front. North winds will rapidly increase in the wake of the front, which will quickly scour away any fog, resulting in Gale conditions over the gulf waters and equally windy conditions over the barrier islands. Skies will gradually clear out overnight as strong dry air advection commences. Surface humidity levels will dip below 40% over the barrier island while winds remain near 20 mph resulting in a brief window of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday morning through about noon. Fortunately surface moisture levels are moist given the above normal rainfall observed over the past month, thus limiting the potential for critical fire weather conditions.

Sunday will be breezy, clear and cool with highs around 60. Winds will gradually subside in the afternoon as surface high pressure settles into the region. Cold conditions are expected Sunday night with clear skies and light winds leading to excellent radiational cooling. Guidance continues to indicate a 50-70% chance for temperatures <32 degrees for portions of the northern coastal plains for a few hours early Monday morning. A freeze warning may be needed for parts of the region Sunday Night.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Message:

- There is at least a 50% chance of dangerous rip currents and minor coastal flooding on Wednesday and Thursday of next week

Zonal flow at 500 hPa over the Southern Plains and Southeast will support a broad 1024 hPa MSLP high pressure centered along the northern Gulf Coast during the first half of next week. This will result in a long fetch of 20+ knots winds which will generate long period swell across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Wave Watch 3, ECMWF, and ENS wave guidance all have waves/swell over 4 feet reaching the middle Texas coast by Wednesday with at least a 40% chance of swell periods over 8 seconds. This wave action coinciding with higher astronomical tides associated with the new moon on December 13 will contribute to at least a 50% chance of minor coastal flooding on Wednesday and Thursday. In addition to the threat of coastal flooding, NWPS guidance has a 50% chance of dangerous rip currents developing on Wednesday and Thursday based on the current forecast.

On Thursday and Friday, ensemble guidance indicates that a cutoff level at 500 hPa will slowly progress eastward across the Southern Plains. Increasing onshore flow downstream of the low will advect low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into South Texas.
ENS/GEFS/GEPS continue to forecast mean values of precipitable water of 1.2-1.4 inches across South Texas on Thursday. These PWAT values are in the 75th to 90th percentile of the KCRP upper air climatology for the middle of December. Based on the combination of above normal moisture and middle level support for ascent, CPC currently is forecasting a 60% chance of above normal (generally greater than 0.25") precipitation during the second half of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The cold front that is traversing South Texas this evening kicks off the weather concerns for the next 24 hours. The front looks to be just through VCT and stretches to just south of ALI and BKS.
The winds behind the front take a little before ramping up with the 20+ knot gusts still along and north of I-10. However, that will change overnight as the colder air moves south through the night, bringing the stronger winds. There is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms with this. The line associated with the front is NE of VCT, and may extend more south toward CRP as it moves closer to the coast, but for now, the chances of that are low (<20%). As the winds increase we could see wind gusts in excess of 35 knots, although most of that will be on the barrier islands or offshore. The front will clear out CIGs that are ongoing, probably by 06z/Sun so that CIGs and VSBYs will be VFR for the rest of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 131 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Patchy sea fog may develop along the immediate coast this afternoon in advance of a strong cold front. The front will move off the coast around 8pm this evening with gale conditions expected in its wake. Wind gusts up to 45 knots and seas up to 15 feet can be expected. Winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday afternoon as high pressure settles into the northwest gulf.
Wave heights will steadily increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday as east winds increase over 15 knots and long period swell progresses west along the northern Gulf Coast. Waves are forecast to reach 5-9 feet by Wednesday afternoon and will likely remain this high through Friday. Seas are currently forecast to gradually decrease through the weekend, but there is still a 50% chance for wave heights over 7 feet persisting through Saturday night beyond 20 nautical miles.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 49 63 35 68 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 45 60 33 65 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 48 63 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 47 63 33 68 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 49 63 43 67 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 44 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 49 63 33 67 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 53 63 45 68 / 30 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

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Port Lavaca
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Sat -- 03:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:38 AM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Sat -- 03:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:01 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:07 PM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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