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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 900 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west late. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast late. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night..South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 900 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light northeasterly winds and low seas will persist through at least midweek, becoming southerly by the end of the week.

FXUS64 KCRP 040456 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1056 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

An upper level disturbance will continue to move across the Southern Plains tonight/early Monday, followed by another upper disturbance developing across the northern Plains/Midwest Monday/Monday night. In response to the first upper system, a surface boundary is expected to move across the CWA Monday. No precipitation expected along this boundary owing to limited moisture. This boundary will reinforce dry conditions. However, mostly cloudy skies will prevail during the period owing to upper level clouds, associated with upper jet dynamics. Low minimum relative humidity values expected Monday afternoon over much of the interior CWA, yet generally weak wind speeds behind the frontal boundary will preclude Elevated fire weather conditions.
Per the NAM deterministic runs, surface dew point depressions tonight are predicted to be slightly greater than last night and thus confidence is low with respect to radiation fog, especially given near zero SREF probability of mist/fog. The thermodynamic profile is predicted to be more conducive to radiation fog Monday night, along with an increase in SREF probability of mist/fog, although still low probability values. Not confident enough to include patchy fog for Monday night. Forecast low temperatures tonight based on NBM given similarity to the SREF/HRRR ensemble means.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages:

- Gradual warming trend through the work week.

- Slight increase in rain chances by the weekend along the coastal areas and Victoria Crossroads associated with a cold front. Better chances of showers or thunderstorms expected over the coastal waters.

A progressive upper level pattern is expected through the week with a series of ridges and troughs tracking across Texas.

A broad trough Tuesday will have little to no impact on S TX weather due to limited moisture (PWAT <1in). Ridging Wed/Thur will also keep rain chances very low (<10%) and will maintain a warming trend through the week. Toward the end of the week, models prog a long wave trough to drop south from the Pacific Northwest. Models are in good agreement with the trough deepening as it tracks southeastward across the Plains and TX, and brings a cold front through S TX by the weekend. Models differ on timing of the upper trough with the latest GFS being the fastest of the models. Models are in fair agreement with timing of the frontal passage with a wind shift/boundary reaching the coastline around 18Z Saturday. The colder, drier air and stronger winds are progged to lag behind the initial wind shift by 6 to 12 hours.

Moisture ahead of the cold front is expected to deepen slightly with PWATs increasing to 1.0-1.2 inches along the middle TX coast. The moisture will interact with increasing low level convergence ahead of the front, the deepening upper level trough and RRQ of a 100kt upper jet bringing a slight chance (10-25%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly for Victoria Crossroads and along the immediate coast with the best chance (30-50%) being across the coastal waters where deeper moisture will reside.

Winds are progged to become more onshore during the work week, leading to a gradual warming trend with highs around 80 by Friday, generally west of I37. This is 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Timing of the cold air advection will make forecasting Saturday's highs a bit tricky, but for now will go with the NBM output for day 7 which indicates highs in the mid to upper 70s. By Saturday night, lows are forecast to be in the 40s to low 50s and highs in the 60s by Sunday.

A weak northeast to east flow is progged through mid week. The northeast to east flow across the coastal waters may lead to tides running above normal. However, am not expecting any coastal flooding during high tide due to the fact that astronomical tides will be running lower this upcoming week and winds will be light most of the week. The P-ETSS is indicating tide levels at Aransas Pass to generally be less than 1ft above MSL at times of high tide through the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Cirrus shield will cover most of south Texas the rest of the night except for the western Brush Country. May see some breaks in cirrus over the coastal plains Monday morning with more moving back in during the afternoon. Latest HRRR/NAM/RAP show radiational fog could form along the Rio Grande by daybreak. Will show a TEMPO for MVFR vsbys at LRD from 11-14Z but there could be a chance for IFR/LIFR vsbys. A weak front will move into the region by mid morning with winds shifting to north-northeast with winds turning to the east by the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Dry conditions and generally weak winds are expected tonight through Monday night. A weak northeast to east flow can be expected mid week, becoming southeasterly the latter half of the week and increasing to moderate levels by Thursday night. Isolated to scattered showers possible next weekend associated with a cold front. Strong north winds expected behind the cold front Saturday night or Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 51 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 73 49 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 75 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 49 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 72 54 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 50 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 72 58 70 61 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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