Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 8:55 PM   Moonset 6:39 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 357 Am Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy late. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Friday night - Southeast winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming rough in the late evening and overnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Bay waters rough. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough, becoming rough after midnight. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming slightly choppy to choppy in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 357 Am Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
low onshore flow is expected into this afternoon, but will become moderate to strong by this evening and continue through the weekend. Small craft advisories are in effect this evening through Friday evening for the gulf waters, but will likely be extended through the weekend as the winds and seas further increase. Conditions slowly improve late Sunday into Monday.

FXUS64 KCRP 251131 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of rip currents today through Friday

- Wind Advisory conditions possible Friday

- Isolated thunderstorms may occur over the Victoria Crossroads Friday

Deterministic NWP models predict an upper level disturbance to move across the southwestern CONUS today, then lift over the Plains tonight/Friday. In response, onshore flow will increase during the period. Frequent wind gusts may reach the Wind Advisory threshold over portions of the Coastal Bend Friday. No fire weather concerns owing to elevated relative humidity values. The NAM/GFS predict above normal PWAT values over the CWA during the period. The combination of the foregoing upper disturbance and moisture may contribute to isolated convection Friday afternoon over mainly the Victoria Crossroads region, with CIN as the caveat. The combination of persistent onshore flow and the full moon will result in a Moderate risk of rip currents today through Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions for portions of South Texas Saturday

- Very warm Saturday with highs near 100 degrees out west

- Low to medium rain/storm chances daily Sunday through Wednesday

A strong surface pressure gradient will develop over the area Saturday into Saturday night leading to a medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions. The threat will first begin over the Victoria Crossroads during the afternoon and then transition westward into the Coastal Plains and Brush Country during the early evening hours. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax by Sunday as the surface low over the Plains drifts northeastward and a surface high over the southeastern CONUS begins to build westward extending into the Gulf.

Low to medium rain and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return to the forecast on Sunday as the next mid to upper level disturbance tracks over the area combining with plentiful available moisture (PWATs 1.7- 1.8"). A persistent onshore flow will continue to bring moisture into the region throughout the week (PWATs peaking at almost 2.0" at times). This, in conjunction with the arrival of several passing disturbances aloft, will lead to additional low to medium rain and convective chances daily through mid next week. The highest precipitation chances will be across the eastern half of the CWA through Tuesday, then drift westward mid week. No flooding concerns are expected at this time.

In terms of temperatures, these will be very warm on Saturday as a dryline nears the area from the west. Highs are forecast to approach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains, with maximums in the mid 80s across the east. Otherwise, expect highs to range from the low 80s to mid 90s through the end of the Extended period, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Expect a mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings this morning through early afternoon, followed by predominate VFR during the mid/late afternoon through the evening. A transition to predominate MVFR ceilings is expected overnight. Breezy/windy onshore flow from late this morning through early tonight, followed by weak to moderate flow for the remainder of the period.
Non-convective LLWS anticipated for the ALI, CRP, and VCT terminals 10-12z Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As an upper level disturbance moves across the southwestern CONUS/Plains during the period, moderate to strong onshore flow will develop over the waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the southern bays/nearshore waters this afternoon, and over the coastal waters tonight/Friday. A persistent strong onshore can be expected through Monday, with periods of Small Craft Advisory or Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds become weak to moderate during the day Monday and will persist through the remainder of the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily Sunday through Tuesday as a couple weak disturbances move over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 86 73 86 75 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 85 71 85 73 / 10 0 20 0 Laredo 95 73 95 74 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 90 72 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 82 73 82 75 / 0 0 10 0 Cotulla 94 74 94 74 / 0 10 10 0 Kingsville 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 83 74 83 75 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ231- 232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ250.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ255-270-275.

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