Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Lavaca, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:58PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:53 AM CDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 505 Am Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft should exercise caution tonight...
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots and gusty this evening. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Isolated showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 505 Am Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A cold over southeast texas early this morning will move off the coast near Sunrise and bring increasing northerly winds. Moderate to strong offshore winds late this afternoon and evening will build seas and small craft advisories will be in effect tonight. Showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the front and may linger well offshore into this evening. An area of disturbed weather that may take on tropical characteristics could move through the southwestern and central gulf towards the new orleans area Friday into Saturday afternoon this would increase rain chances and winds as it passes by to the southeast. Southerly flow Sunday will probably tap into deeper moisture and could bring a round of showers and Thunderstorms late Sunday. Another cold front should arrive on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lavaca, TX
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location: 28.64, -96.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 161133
afdcrp
area forecast discussion
national weather service corpus christi tx
633 am cdt Wed oct 16 2019

Discussion
Aviation discussion updated for the 12z tafs.

Aviation
A cold front with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
along it is currently pushing through south texas this morning
reducing ceilings to MVFR to near ifr levels. Thunderstorms are
mainly confined to the vct area, while showers will be possible at
the other south texas terminals this morning. Rain chances are
expected to gradually diminish as breezy northerly winds develop
this afternoon. As the northerly winds weaken after sunset, cloudy
skies will persist this evening as a slug of mid-level moisture
sits over the region, which will contribute to the mostly MVFR
ceilings through the remainder of the period.

Prev discussion issued 423 am cdt Wed oct 16 2019
short term (today through Thursday)...

based on the latest satellite radar imagery and msas surface
observations, the cold front has pushed through the hill country
and is approaching south texas. Latest guidance suggests the cold
front is expected to push through our northern counties between
09z-11z and then through the southern brush country and the coast
around 11z-13z. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
just north of our area along the front thanks to ample moisture
convergence, MLCAPE around 1000-1500 j kg, mesoscale forcing from
convective outflows and the frontal boundary itself, and
synoptic scale forcing from the right entrance region the upper-
level jet. These favorable conditions extend into south texas this
morning and will continue to support convection ahead of the cold
front as it pushes through our area. Href, hrrr, and tt-wrf cams
depict a line of showers and thunderstorms pushing through most
of south texas this morning. However, with slightly greater
instability and bulk shear values around 35kt across the northern
coastal plains this morning, a few storms may have the potential
to become strong and produce gusty winds, small hail, locally
heavy rainfall, and even some minor flooding.

By late morning early afternoon, the bulk of the convection is
expected to be to our south and the cold front should be completely
through our area. It will continue to push offshore where it is
expected to eventually stall over the gulf of mexico. Breezy
northerly winds will develop in its wake and bringing cooler and
drier conditions Wednesday afternoon with temperatures expected to
dip into the 70s. However, a slug of mid-level moisture will
remain behind the front and contribute to overcast skies through
the evening. This cloud cover will help insulate the region
overnight and limit our temperatures from dropping not too far below
normal. Overnight low temperatures are expected to remain mostly
in the 60s with a few areas in our north in the upper 50s, but if
we have a few breaks in the clouds, we could potential see lows a
few degrees cooler than the current forecast.

For Thursday, a shortwave trough, currently sitting over west texas,
that has been following close behind today's system will gradually
push eastward across central texas. Although low-levels will remain
dry, greater mid-level moisture will persist across the region
Thursday with pwats around 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This elevated moisture
combined with lift from a shortwave trough provides enough support
to maintain isolated to scattered rain chances across portions of
south texas for Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below
normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Lastly, a coastal flood advisory remains in effect for gulf facing
beaches south of port aransas through at least Thursday morning
around periods of high tide. Although offshore flow will develop
behind the cold front today and Thursday, etss, p-etss, and estof
all show water levels remaining near or just above 2 ft msl
through midnight Thursday due to higher than normal astronomical
tides. Minor coastal flooding conditions will likely continue
through the end of the week.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

concur with deterministic output that an upper level disturbance
will move across the region Thursday night early Friday. In
addition, a surface trough low may develop over the western gulf of
mexico. The NHC forecasts a medium chance that this low will develop
into a tropical cyclone. If this system remains extratropical,
expect the combination of this system and the upper disturbance to
contribute to scattered convection Thursday night Friday. Expect
subsidence drying (ecmwf GFS upper pattern and pwat values) behind
this upper system to preclude precipitation Saturday. However, the
gfs ECMWF predict another upper system to develop move across the
srn plains texas Sunday Sunday night, with a corresponding cold
front predicted to enter the CWA Sunday night. The ECMWF is more
aggressive with moisture return in advance of this next system.

Nevertheless, expect the upper system and moisture convergence
along the front to trigger scattered convection over the CWA msa
Sunday night Monday. Drier Tuesday.

Marine...

a cold front with showers and thunderstorms will push south across
the coastal waters this morning. Moderate to strong northerly flow
will develop across the gulf waters this afternoon resulting in
small craft advisory conditions through this evening. Northerly
winds are expected to diminish overnight and return to weak to
moderate levels on Thursday.

The combination of an upper level disturbance and surface
low trough will contribute to scattered convection Thursday
night Friday. Drier Friday night Saturday. Increasing chance for
convection Sunday Monday in response to an approaching upper
disturbance and associated cold front. Drier Tuesday. Scec
conditions anticipated early Thursday night. SCA conditions
possible late Monday night Tuesday after frontal passage. Etss
predicts maximum water levels exceeding the local threshold for
minor coastal flooding Friday through Sunday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 79 64 78 66 86 50 20 20 20 20
victoria 73 58 76 60 85 60 10 10 20 20
laredo 75 62 76 64 87 80 20 30 10 10
alice 77 63 78 64 88 60 20 20 20 10
rockport 79 66 77 69 83 60 10 20 30 30
cotulla 72 58 76 61 87 60 20 30 10 10
kingsville 80 64 79 65 88 50 20 20 20 10
navy corpus 79 67 77 71 83 50 20 30 30 30

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am cdt Thursday for the following
zones: kleberg islands... Nueces islands.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 pm cdt this
evening for the following zones: coastal waters from baffin
bay to port aransas out 20 nm... Coastal waters from port
aransas to matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Waters from
baffin bay to port aransas from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
port aransas to matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm.

Kw 92... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 0 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 76°F 77°F1012.7 hPa (+1.0)
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi54 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1012.5 hPa (+1.4)
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 17 mi54 min NW 4.1 G 6 78°F 81°F1012.9 hPa (+1.3)
MBET2 21 mi54 min N 7 G 8 78°F 80°F1011.4 hPa (+1.5)
AWRT2 30 mi54 min NNW 6 G 8.9 77°F 77°F1012.2 hPa (+1.5)
EMAT2 37 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 6 77°F 77°F1012.2 hPa (+1.2)
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 49 mi54 min 78°F 1012.7 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX4 mi59 minNNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F76°F93%1013.2 hPa
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX19 mi61 minNNW 58.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F90%1012.6 hPa
Victoria, Victoria Regional Airport, TX23 mi63 minNW 77.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKV

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS5SW9S9S9
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S11S6S6S5S4S3S3N4NW5CalmN7NW4
1 day agoNE3--SW3SW3W9SW7SW8
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S7SE10SE6SE8SE7SE6S6S6S6S5S5S4S4
2 days agoNE5NE4NE6N6N4NE8NE7NE9NE8E3SE7SE13SE7E8E11E9E8E6E4--NE3NE3Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Seadrift, San Antonio Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.